Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:02 Good evening from Israel and welcome to another Israel Insider with me, Ashley Perry, adviser to the Middle East forum of Israel's office. Obviously quite a lot going on in Israel and the region as I'm sure you're all aware. Um the situation uh with Iran has clearly ratcheted up a [clears throat] level. I still believe as I've said previously it's still to a certain extent controlled escalation which means um both sides are in control of the situation as of now they're not pushing anything too far and I'll talk about that in a minute but I will give the caveat that even in so-called controlled escalation things can get out of control very quickly. Um it's clear that despite uh President Trump's threats today, I think it was on Fox News, one of the media interviews, he gave he hasn't been targeting the energy industry. He hasn't been uh targeting infrastructure. It's he's largely been

1:06 targeting with some exceptions um the Iranian military infrastructure around the street of Homo. was basically uh you know uh drone factories, missiles, uh army bases uh in and around the straight of Hormos to try and depreciate the Iranian uh military threat uh to shipping uh in that region. Obviously the uh Iranians have said the strait is close to everybody. The Americans have put up an Iranian blockade. So we are taking quite a few steps back um to the situation.

1:42 quite a number of weeks, even months ago. But again, uh nothing has gone that sort of controlled escalation. Um but that could change first of all because a mistake could be made if the Iranians target and kill an American serviceman. Then things can change. Obviously, if at the moment Iran is attacking its Gulf neighbors and Jordan, it claims it's only targeting American uh bases in the region. Um but that again, you know, a a stray missile could change everything. But again, why I would say it's largely controlled is the fact that Israel hasn't been targeted.

2:26 And it's clear that Iran knows that is targeting Israel would ratchet it up a level. uh not not just because, you know, it'd be attacking uh Israel as opposed to some of its let's say weaker uh Arab neighbors, but also because they know Israel will strike back. Israel is, you know, some would even argue chomping at the bit uh to have the opportunity to strike back and they have a bank of targets. They have a list of unresolved um uh arenas, let's put it that way, um that they would like to attack that they felt get got left unanswered um during Operation Epic Fury, uh Roaring Lion. Um but again we're left with the uh President Trump threat that if they do not come back to the table and again we should always notice the language as he President Trump always leaves that room open to come back to the table to negotiate even claims that they've

3:28 already reached out. The Iranians obviously deny that. Um but it's clear something is going uh behind the scenes but President Trump has said if they do not come to the table seriously by next week he will start blowing up. I think it's in order power plants, bridges and then and only then he says finally he will target the energy sector. That's even something he didn't do the Americans didn't do in operation epic fury. So that would obviously ratchet it up significantly and probably then we would see Iran escalate from its side and perhaps Israel would then get enveloped uh uh back into the war. Uh again that probably the Americans don't want at this point and certainly the Iranians uh uh do not want. Um, as I said, uh, you know, Israel, the Israeli Air Force, the IDF, they've been thinking very carefully about what they would do. They know that probably if there are any opportunities to strike Iran, they'll be limited because, again,

4:31 we will probably see at some point, even before, certainly afterwards, the Iranians trying to get back to the negotiating table. Um they know as we've talked uh previously that President Trump is susceptible to economic uh pressure. Uh they know that he has the midterms despite denials that that is uh playing on his mind. It clearly is a factor. he'll be hearing from his people in the Republican party and his advisers um quite frequently that, you know, uh if the gas prices go up, it will make it much harder for Republicans to uh to win uh their races come uh November. So, it's clearly in the mind, but it could be that President Trump has looked at the oil prices going up and down and the speed that they go up and down and think he has some wiggle room in the days and weeks ahead that maybe he can escalate and then ratchet it down and the prices will uh go back down significantly enough uh before uh the midterm. So,

5:36 we'll have to keep an eye on that. Um there were more attacks today and they were certainly wider than just around the straight of Hong from uh the US. Um but we'll have to keep an eye on that and certainly if the Iranians don't go uh don't come back to the table, what exactly does President Trump have in mind uh for next week? Uh moving uh to Israel's northern border and the situation with Lebanon. It's very interesting. Today there were was a further round of talks between Israel and Lebanon. this time in Rome and really to get um a little bit more of a grip on what these pilot schemes uh mean for those who who haven't been following this um the negotiations between uh Lebanon and Israel at this point are mostly uh about the so-called pilot schemes where Israel would retreat initially from two areas south of the Leani River but not on the Israeli border um where basically the idea is that um once Israel feels confident that

6:38 it is rid those areas of anyah presence, whether physical presence by militia um or arms or tunnels, then it would retreat and hand over that territory um to the um um the Lebanese uh forces um and there would be a verification uh system uh which would basically verify that Hezbollah has not returned. There's obviously been a a major long-standing concern by Israel that the Lebanese armed forces are not able um to take on Fisbalah will perhaps not be able to hold um the territory that they are given. Uh we know that there is great pressure uh from the uh international community against uh the Lebanese chief of staff who um seems to not uh want to take on he even said and and and the language that's been used the the

7:41 symbolism we're talking about national unity we don't want to plunge the country back into civil war obviously Lebanon is extremely scarred from the history of civil war there and the Shiite presence especially in the south of the country which in great parts is Lord to Hezbollah. Um there it is a bit of a tight rope that the Lebanese government is trying to tread the international community wants to support these efforts. What they need to do um from the Israeli point of view is support the Lebanese armed forces. Give them greater financial uh and military backing because at this point um they are not as orderly. They're not as well paid. they're not as well armed as Hezbollah. So if you want anyone else except the IDF, which so far has been the only force to have actually um pushed back Hezbollah, uh then you're going to need to give them uh the ability to do so. Israel is um going to take these steps tentatively. Lebanon wants them to be speeded up. Um and

8:44 that's the timetable is going to be uh extremely important as is the verification. Uh I think we talked last week or the week before that it seemed like the way this um agreement the trilateral agreement uh between Lebanon, Israel and the US was built, it seemed to give Israel somewhat of a veto over the verification process. Um it it's unclear exactly whether that still stands or whether that's going to be baked into the agreement but what we are hearing which is certainly music to Israel's ears is um it's not going to be verified by an international body by the UN by UNIFIL by uh UNSO by these organizations that Israel uh certainly has claimed for decades has largely failed in their mission of keeping the peace. they uh have just basically held their own ground most of the time and not been able to stop any of the crossborder skirmishes or the uh build built up of u military weaponry uh

9:48 tunnels etc on Israel's border. So we'll have to wait and see exactly what comes out of it. Um there still needs um to be a little bit of uh structure and guideline um added into what has already been agreed. Um but it's clear that there is at least some positive momentum on that. But again, Israel will enter this with great caution. Lebanon wants this to be sped up, especially uh the Lebanese president who's put a lot of political and diplomatic capital behind it. Um so we'll have to work a lot of things will be um will be uh you know decided on the ground but a lot of things will be decided in international capitals uh as well. Um, we also did hear in the last day or so again once again um pressure from President Trump for Israel to get out of Lebanon um and Syria or at least um somewhat especially Syria probably

10:51 comes as a as a request um from Syrian President Ashara who met with Trump uh at the NATO meeting. It was probably a direct request from him and I'm sure the Turkish president, President Erdogan probably also uh I mean we know he wants Israel out of Syria but probably also um made that part of his discussions uh with Donald Trump because it seems to be very much an issue on his mind. Could be the Qataris are also involved, maybe even the Saudis as well. Um but it does seem that the Americans want um this uh retreat from territory relocation, whatever uh President Trump has called it, as soon as uh possible. Uh he wants the pace to be quickened. Um, and that's probably uh, well, we know that's part of the discussions that he's had with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and that's probably where at least some of the disagreements, as uh, President Trump put it, uh, are are laid out. Um, so

11:54 we'll have to wait and see exactly what's going on there. Um, most dramatically, uh, at home in Israeli politics, we're now in the final, I think, day or two days of the of the Knesset. We now have, uh, an election date. It's the 27th of October. It's basically the last day possible of this government. Uh, which means it will be the first government to have reached its full term in decades. I can't remember how long, maybe a half century, something like that. So you could argue politically it's quite an impressive uh achievement, but again depending on where you sit on the political spec spectrum, you'll see that as a good thing or or a bad thing. Um but what we certainly have seen in the last day or so is a slew of um legislation. uh we've talked about this in preceding weeks that the ultraorththodox wanted laws which were absolutely crucial for them uh to pass and also the nonorth ultraorththodox parties in the coalition

12:57 also needed um some laws to pass which I'll go through in a little bit but most crucially Netanyao brought what he wanted which I said he would pretty much get all all along which was to have elections held as late as possible so what was passed this week First of all, we had uh the basic law of learning the Torah uh which basically put it as a primary um what's the word that they used a a primary um uh cause in in the state of Israel. Um the idea here was not to elevate uh learning Torah. The idea here was to elevate it um in law in Israel's law because as we we discussed previously basic laws are Israel's quasi constitution and they hold a higher level high level legality and something that the high court the Supreme Court has to take into account when judging

13:59 whether uh uh laws regular laws are constitutional or not. And as we know um for quite a while now the judicial system has ruled that the system whereby uh everybody serves either in the military or national service except for the ultra orthodox and the Arabs but that's for a completely separate reason. Um the ultraorththodox doesn't serve uh has deferments. they were they were called unconstitutional and in theory they are considered deserters and it is illegal not to uh to turn up to your date of conscription etc etc. So now the idea here was that the ultra orthodox would pass a basic law or the government would pass a basic law to then force uh in theory at least um the supreme court to have to take into account that learning Torah is a supreme value of the state of Israel. The original wording was on a par with military service but they removed that after pressure from the religious Zionist party. um that

15:04 they have to take that into account when judging whether deferments or new laws to allow the non-inlistment of ultraorth orthodox is constitutional or not. Obviously um this is going to be very controversial. The Supreme Court will certainly take a look at it and it'll be interest to see how it deals with that. One law that it certainly is taking a [clears throat] great interest which is very much um uh you know on the same theme is that the government the coalition I should say passed a law also to ensure that there will be no arrests of ultraorththodox non-inlisters over the next in the coming months up to I think around 6 months until uh December.

15:48 Um which again as soon as that law passed um the uh some of the opposition political parties and some other NOS's went straight to the Supreme Court to basically uh put in an appeal and the Supreme Court uh said that there was enough there that they they halted um this uh law in principle which means that at this point in for 24 hours at least there were no arrests. there was uh and now the Supreme Court has said that uh this law has been frozen. So the police can go out and arrest um various figures from within the coalition has warned the police that that would be illegal that that would be unconstitutional that the the sovereign uh Kessa has spoken and they are obliged to to follow what the bill says. uh while the opposition would say well the Supreme Court um is going to judge it on its merits but first of all it needs to freeze this law because there's enough

16:51 in there that uh proves problematic especially when you make a status which is for part of Israeli society and not others because as we know a dessert or non-investor uh will be arrested can be put in prison but an ultraorththodox uh Israeli suddenly will not. So, um the Supreme Court has already uh shown to a certain extent that it finds this law problematic, but obviously it will rule uh on it um at some point probably soon. What did the non-ultra orthodox parties get? Well, they one of the the the the major themes from the beginning of this government was um reform of the judicial system. uh there especially from the right there's been a quite an attack on the judicial system saying that it's it has far too much power you know when we talk about balance of powers that the the judicial system has even greater powers and too many powers this is what the the coalition uh would argue uh over

17:56 the mandate of the people which is the kesset there needs to be a greater uh balance there and uh the judicial system has taken on powers which it was never given uh over the years and struck down laws and even created laws even though they're non uh elected uh officials. So a a law was passed to weaken the attorney general. As we know, we've discussed it many times. The attorney general is the betron of the uh current coalition. The right she uh particularly is seen as someone who acts constantly against the will of the coalition.

18:36 That's how they um they define it and has placed herself in a in a supreme uh role. So what um what Sinharotman who is really the author of much of the judicial reform along with justice minister Yarif Lavine they've been trying to weaken this position and to a certain extent there is a case certainly to be made to split the powers of the attorney general because sometimes they're in contrast with themselves but what um this law has given which uh which which has been passed will uh will give the government the ability to disregard the opinion of the attorney general. Up until now they had to abide by it and that um she or the any future attorney general will not will not have exclusive authority to present the state's uh position in court and also the process how to make it easier to dismiss uh the attorney general. So this will be uh considered a great win for

19:40 the right in general but specifically for the religious science party which really this was uh apart from probably the settlements in Judea and Samaria this was probably their flagship policy and just at the last minute the 90th minute they've been able to at least pass something significant against the attorney general and probably will become a major campaign uh piece where they said that they've started um the um the riding back of some of her powers and they will obviously request a mandate from the people uh at the election to uh continue that. So we are now seeing the uh election campaigns uh start in earnest even though officially it's a it's a 3-month period and 90-day period but um obviously we're already starting. We heard some quite shocking revelations tonight on Israeli TV from Gaddy Eisenot who has now for the first time his party has risen above the liquid in uh most polls and when asked

20:44 who is more fit to be prime minister has quite a significant uh uh Benjamin Natino. And tonight he certainly took that competition up a notch where he gave uh an exclusive to channel 12, the main uh news channel in Israel. Clearly had been concocted uh in advance. You could see by the the questioning where he basically said that while he was chief of staff, he was given an order and he went into some details um to basically do a uh take on a military maneuver basically to protect one of Netanyahu's sons who was serving in a particular area. He said in the end he said no even though there was pressure from Netanyahu and his surrounding people didn't name it but a lot of people will immediately jump on the name of Sarin Netanyahu the prime minister's wife who a lot of the opposition claims has inordinate power gets involved in things that she shouldn't etc etc so um that is

21:48 obviously quite a major revelation and it's clear that Gaddy Eisenot really wants to push uh uh BB into a corner trying to show that he's uh selfish only interested in himself puts himself and his family above uh the national interest. Uh, interestingly alongside this and very connected to this, we had reports that the Shinbet um director as we know um was is is is a new person who's basically very much ano pick and very loyal to him and a request was made by Sarino that um she and her two sons uh should receive uh Shindet protection.

22:37 security protection forever. Um, former prime ministers do get protection. Almat has permanent protection. Barak, Nafali Bennett, Yid, anyone who is a prime minister does get protection, but their wives don't, their children don't. So, this was quite a unique request, which again will play into that perception uh by some that Netany's family comes first. But what I think is most interesting is the timing and the fact that she's asking for protection even after she's no longer the wife of prime minister in the you know as we're on the cusp of elections also says to me that there is a worry within the Netanyahu family that this might well be the end of the road for Prime Minister Netanyahu. It's clearly there. It's clearly a worry and there's clearly at least a preparation for it. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's clearly a concern from within the family. So, that's quite uh those are two quite shocking uh revelations from

23:40 today. And with that, I'm going to go to your questions. Second. Okay. Uh Eric Sulov asked the Knesset pass a number of bills for the Hedi the Hedi community and to restrict the attorney general. I read that most Israelis do not like those bills. Why are those bills not hurting Netanyahu in their re-election campaign? Well, they're two different things. The the laws for the Karedi community, which I uh annunciated earlier, are deeply unpopular, extremely unpopular across the board. Even on the right, you've already seen at least two liquid MKs. We saw a um a a a judge in the Liood system. We saw mayers uh you know who are loyalty could come out against this. These are supremely unpopular from the religious community across to the most secular. What Netanyao is hoping is um that people will forget or people will be um you

24:44 know we'll look at the bigger issues and what they are looking what they're reading into this and what we know what I know from being involved in many elections at the end of the day it's going to be largely about security and he's hoping that whatever the security issues are and obviously he'll be hoping that he can bring some more achievements and stand on his record of um what he's achieved or what he'll claim to achieved on various fronts uh will overshadow anything he did uh in July. The uh the restriction of the attorney general is far more popular uh amongst the right at least. Um there are even people excuse me in the opposition who um believe in at least restricting to a certain extent. There are many degrees of it there. The further left you go uh the argument will be there should be absolutely no restrictions. there be should be no weakening of the attorney general. But as you move to the center and the center right, there'll be more who agree that there should be at least some weakening of the attorney general because uh that position has become uh

25:48 too strong. Um so you know the the two the two issues are not connected. one is deeply deeply unpopular with Nino hoping that it will be so far in the past and there'll be so many other issues relating to security that uh Israelis won't make him pay for that. Um there's certainly a debate about that. I go back and forth um exactly where I stand on that but the attorney general is a win for the religious Zionist party whose base of support are very supportive of this. mostly could supporters are supportive of this. The Khedi parties who feel that they've been uh particularly persecuted by this attorney general will also be very supportive uh of this. Um, Barack Corkmaz asks, "Can you comment on Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan's words on Israel as he is ruling out any confrontation between Turkey and Israel while looking forward to normalized relations after October uh elections with the upcoming Israeli government,

26:50 which he expects to be a decent one?" Well, I think this was probably a way to try and give a mayor kalpa without really going too far. We some of the comments coming out of the Erdogan uh regime over the last few weeks have been really beyond the pale. It hasn't been about Israeli policy or this government policy, but basically Israel is the enemy of humanity. The Zionist Israeli state has to be expuned. Um we see them as an enemy. We're going to conquer Jerusalem. All of these statements have been made by senior figures, including um the Minister of Foreign Affairs himself. So it's clear that now they're trying to take a step backwards probably at the behest of the Americans perhaps the the Europeans to a lesser extent who basically feel that um the the the rhetoric has to be uh ramped down and it's now being portrayed as well we never really had a problem with Israel.

27:46 It's only uh the this particular government and Netanyahu that we have a problem with. That obviously stands in great contradistinction to the statements themselves. But it's clear that there is an effort at least for now these things go up and down uh by the Turkish regime um that it's uh it's going to be um that it's going to be ratcheted down a little bit. Barbie Rambo's uh well I guess it's not really a question. Judaism as foundational to maintaining a Jewish state. What a radical concept. Well, uh, Bobby, what I would say to that, it it's really got nothing about Judaism. First of all, it's learning Torah. It's very specific to the ultraorththodox community. Um, it's really nothing to do with Judaism, nothing to do with learning Torah. The bill itself, and I would recommend you read it, has only really one purpose, to make sure that the ultraorththodox community continues uh to not be listed in the army and also receives benefits far beyond what the average Israeli will

28:49 receive. And basically by anchoring this as a basic law, quas constitutional status means that they will be able to pass this. they are hoping without high court uh uh you know um overruling. Um so it's not about Judaism, it's about um specifically the ultraorththodox community because most religious uh Israelis from the uh religious scientist camp are against this. Of course they're not against Judaism. They're not against Torah. They're not against learning Torah, but they are against this um they would argue misapplication, misappropriation of Torah and Judaism specifically for a narrow uh political uh context. Um and we might have um one more time for one more question. Um and you comment on uh Roana's um visit to the West Bank, but I haven't really got much more to add. It was clear that this was just um a political

29:53 stunt, a publicity stunt. It was carefully choreographed. We now know so many details about it. He went to a closed military zone. He knew exactly what he was doing because he was with Israelis who have done this in the past. He was with the New York Times uh journalist. Um he was stopped by security guards who were maintaining security over that closed um area. The IDF was called in. the IDF uh tried to ascertain what was going on and let's not forget the average IDF soldier or even uh you know security guard doesn't know who car is so you know they had to ascertain but after they did with about an hour wait they were not held at gunpoint uh they were allowed to uh move on but it was clearly and carefully choreographed to try and embarrass uh Israel but more importantly again as we've said many many many times in the past Israel is just a function of uh you know domestic issues. Um he's trying to allegedly run for president. So uh and

30:56 he had backed the wrong horse recently in a in a democratic primary and to try and distract from that and trying to show his progressive uh credentials. He immediately organized suddenly out of nowhere a trip to Judea and Samaria the West Bank and and and basically hatched this plan. They were going to go into Nar. they knew they were not allowed to go into because the Israelis with them have been arrested a few times for breaking that uh particular law and having a New York Times journalist in the car at the times shows how carefully choreographed it was. So it was just there to embarrass Israel but more importantly to try and play up uh Conor's um reputation on the left and bolster his credentials as a pre presidential uh candidate. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your questions and your presence and participation. Unfortunately, I will not be here next week as it is the evening of Tishab, the 9th of A. But I'd like to wish you all a good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are. And uh uh enjoy the rest of your week.