Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Let's get straight into it. Um because obviously today is a very unique day. It is the third anniversary of the October 7th massacre. Um it's been a week of commemoration uh for that. We had um uh you know a few days ago we had Simra which is the uh the festival which was um which was when the October 7th um attacks took place. it was a Sabbath, a Shabbat and Simra and this is the first time that those two days have um also coincided uh as well as um so uh one can imagine that that also had an emotional effect uh in Israel and amongst Jewish communities around the world. Uh on Monday we had the official commemoration, the state commemoration.

0:52 Um and today obviously is the um English calendar [snorts] uh event which is October 7th um which really is became a very emotional day. uh the the major Israeli news channels or the channels themselves basically uh dedicated themselves to uh everything that was going on uh everything that happened in October 7th uh hostages those who were murdered the Nova festival um really relaying a lot of the images talking about the stories um most I think powerful certainly for me um was hearing some of those um telephone conversations uh which were never released before of those who unfortunately knew they were going to die. Some [clears throat] very sad and disturbing conversations of people who called their parents to say goodbye.

1:49 they knew they were going to die. Or, you know, people locked in in houses with terrorists coming in or uh some of the lookout girls uh who were infamously um murdered and others were uh taken as hostage into Gaza and really really terrible, terrible, heartbreaking, sad stories. And we can imagine that uh as you can imagine uh you know that's pretty much what everyone in Israel uh talked about. Uh on Monday as I said there was the official ceremony. Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on that day but obviously you know everything has a political aspect to it and Netany speech certainly had that political dimension where he didn't focus um so much on what went wrong. There was certainly no uh expression of responsibility, something that's near a studiously avoided for three years and he's certainly not going to change that uh less than 3 weeks before the elections. Um but really he

2:52 focused on the ongoing threat uh of Hamas and and Iran and others and also focused on the achievements uh since October 7th relaying uh as he does many times um the achievements of you know not the opposition would certainly say not necessarily defeating uh Hamas but certainly um you know pushing them very much into a corner. um the opposition say you know where's the total victory that you promised us and he would say that you know he took out Sinoir he did this he did that are very much uh degraded um with you know longtime leader Hassan Nalah obviously dead Iran as well the various other Iranian leaders were taken out uh their missile capability degraded they did their nuclear program uh degraded and and that was sort of the

3:54 focus on NetA what Netao wanted to focus on October 7th. Obviously the opposition um wanted to focus on um what actually happened on that day and how did it uh uh get allowed to happen and basically pointing the finger at Netanyahu. As I said, you know, everything has a political lens and the question exactly how much was Netanyahu culpable has really turned into a bait a debate exactly what were the warning signs, what did Netanyo hit or see what was led by him. Obviously, uh Netany himself that he could party and those around him like to focus on the fact that he wasn't woken. He didn't until 6:29. He says uh it was too late.

4:41 the attacks were already uh you know uh ongoing. They should have woken him up earlier. He his claim is that things would have looked very very different and uh there were no warnings from the security uh forces. They said that uh kamas had been subdued. They had no interest in war. Interesting. The opposition say the exact opposite. They relay relay a Vidor Leman relayed a video and a quote Nesso just a couple of weeks or a few weeks before October 7th where he made the the statement uh when he was asked on his favorite channel 14. Um the security services say uh that there could be a uh war starting something coming something in the offing and that Tinyu said it's an exaggeration. So there is a war of narratives very much going on exactly what Netanyahu knew.

5:37 Were there warnings from um the world from from Egypt from the UAE um how much was he told? What did he do when he was awake? There's that timeline as well. There was three or four hours until there was a situational brief with the defense minister and the IDF chief of staff. Uh during those three or four hours obviously many many lives were lost. Um but it's very very much uh a focus on exactly how much responsibility do you place on Netanyao and Netanyahu and his camp would argue how much responsibility is on the um security services and the so-called conception uh which has been a major talking point since October 7th uh itself. Um and uh this really as one can imagine in if it in previous years it was a hot topic one can imagine a few weeks before elections it is the topic um and it's really uh focusing again in that really key space of um two to three weeks before the

6:40 elections according to uh research that's when many if not most people make up their mind about who they're going to vote for. you know, we do have this event October 7th. I was always quite shocked from the beginning that Netino wanted this uh date um because it really is just a few weeks after October 7th. There were other reasons why he wanted it, but still it was kind of obvious that there would be a lot of focus on October 7th. A lot of anger, a lot of pain, a lot of anguish. Um and a lot of that will be whether rightful or not.

7:16 And that's certainly a debate that's being taken place uh at the end of the day on the person who sits on the top whereas um the defense minister has resigned uh the head of the shimeta has resigned the head of the Mossad has gone uh pretty much uh all the major defense positions have taken responsibility resigned been forced to resign etc. and the opposition have focused on the fact that the only one person who has never accepted any responsibility is the one who has claimed for 15 years that he is in control of the situation. When good things happen, he takes credit for them.

7:53 When bad things happen, it's someone else's fault. The It's going to be very interesting tomorrow night. It's supposed to be an exclusive uh tell all reveal from the military secretary who uh was the person who woke up Prime Minister Netanyo and actually kept him briefed for those initial hour or so. Uh he is apparently for the first time going to talk about that conversation uh exactly what happened when it happened and what Netanyahu's reaction was. And according to journalists who have already seen um this tel they say it's going to be explosive and it's going to very much uh threaten the Netino narrative. That's what they claim. Again, this is going to be in media that is certainly not necessarily uh in Netanyahu's camp. Uh channel 12. Channel 12 is considered, you know, uh very much anti BB. Um and you could see today channel 12 and even channel 13 which is even more it's

8:54 considered even more anti- Netanyao and the and the government all day were just showing harrowing scenes interviewers with survivors with family members of those who were killed with former hostages etc. Interestingly if you turn on to channel 14 which is more home territory for Netanyao it was basically about how the defense establishment messed up. It was about how it was their fault about how they built this uh conception. So we can see the battle lines already drawn. Um it was always going to happen. October 7th is such a still raw mo moment. Um speaking about it from a personal point of view because many many Israelis have a personal connection to October 7th because we are a small country and everyone knows everyone. My uh our nephew was killed uh as an IDF soldier on the Arez crossing um while he was trying to him and his comrades were trying to repel the masses of Hamas terrorists who were coming uh

9:57 through that border at the time. Obviously they didn't know that it was happening multiple other places. He saved many soldiers lives and him and his comrades even potentially uh stopped a wave of kamas terrorists uh from traveling north to Ashcolon to Ashto where the massacre could have been uh even greater and you know many many uh I would say tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of Israelis have a story either they're related or they have one degree of separation between someone who was murdered that day, someone was taken hostage that day, someone who was injured that day, someone who was caught up under fire on that day. One can imagine um and and because of that, it really is still a raw uh emotional day.

10:47 It is only 3 years. Uh the rest of the world seemed, you know, have moved on. The focus is all on, you know, what the Israeli response was uh for the next, you know, two and a half years or whatever it was. Um, but in Israel, October 7th is is is a real visceral feeling. And obviously, unfortunately or fortunately, however you look at it, it's going to play a major role uh in the elections because it is, you know, it is only 8 days before Israelis go to the polls. And again, depending on where you sit, um you will either be one of those, let's say you're in the opposition to Netanyao, you'll say because of uh October 7th, we absolutely have to replace Netanyo and this coalition. If you're a fan of Netanyao and this coalition, you'll say we have to vote again for Netanyao and this coalition to make sure it never happens again because that is something that Netanyahu is and his camp is very much trying to focus that there are those threats and um even going further the

11:52 the the stress that uh that he could putting out on they've now put uh uh posters trying to paint the opposition as you know basically if they get into power, they will concede to the Palestinians. They will even create a Palestinian state. The slogan is yamin or Palestine or uh which basically translates which doesn't work as well because it doesn't rhyme in English is the right or Palestine. In other words, if you don't vote for us, uh the other side is going to exceed to a Palestinian state. So, the battle lines are drawn.

12:28 Interestingly, after the issue of security has come up quite a lot recently, the issue the karedi uh ultraorththodox issue is once again coming to the four. There were some disgraceful scenes over the last few days. Um while uh the IDF and uh the the the police were trying to arrest um those who refused to enlist um the mobs came. There's actually an app, I think it's called the uh the the um it's called the the black warning or something. Black meaning the kari world.

13:03 Um where they basically as soon as uh the police come to a certain area to arrest someone who refused to enlist um they basically swarm in great numbers to try and protect that person. And they were successful this week uh in chasing the police uh and the army away. And one can imagine that that doesn't go down well in the rest of uh Israeli uh society. And tomorrow there's supposed to be a return which we haven't seen now for you know a good few weeks if not a good few months of major demonstrations by the ultra orthodox at various intersections and at major uh uh you know uh cities. Jerusalem will be one of them. what they call the Gushan, which is the sort of wider Tel Aviv region where they will try and shut down roads.

13:49 Maybe they'll uh demonstrate uh some will say riot. It could unfortunately has got violent in the past and that's certainly um going to help the opposition focus um back on the ultraorththodox enlistment issue which is something which still burns for many people even those who are uh you know generally supporters of the coalition unless of course you are a supporter of the ultraorththodox parties um it is the Achilles heel of Netanyao of Smridge and to a lesser extent of Beng and uh the more that this becomes a focus on top of October 7th, uh perhaps things uh will start to move a little bit away from the coalition. We haven't seen it too much, although there were polls tonight and the polls didn't really show too much movement between the blocks. So, it is still a bit of a stalemate, but obviously there'll be a lot going on between now and the elections that will shape that perception. there does seem to be a lot of uh undecided voters who could well uh decide um how this

14:54 election is going to go. But again, if there are more ultra orthodox uh riots, if um the general the non ultraorththodox Jewish public uh find some of these scenes unpalatable and they don't feel that the um leadership, Natino himself, maybe Smatri and others are not sufficiently uh condemning uh these riots, then that could drive more support to the opposition. Netanyao himself will try and focus not just on the security issue but also the threat of a Palestinian state. This is an interesting threat because um it's it seems pretty far-fetched to most people um because there's no there's no mandate even on the opposition no one is talking about Palestinian state. Even the far-left Yay Golan is not talking about a Palestinian state and certainly there is no leadership to give a Palestinian state to. But Netanyahu is a consumate pollster and it is clear that uh him and his strategists have decided that that

15:58 is a threat that could buy him enough votes if not to gain victory himself which seems unlikely but to prevent the other side from forming um a government. So again, a bit of a stalemate. Both sides are are scrambling and scraping to try and manage the agenda. By the way, I should say another interesting point that's come out in the last week is Gaddy Eisenot, the leader of the opposition or at least the leading the leader of the leading party in the opposition challenged Netanyahu to a debate and there's been a lot of discussion about that. If you're if if you know Gali Eisenot and uh Benjamin Netanyahu and you ask who is the better communicator, most Israelis would say there's absolutely no doubt. So the fact that Netanyahu doesn't want to uh engage in a debate is is telling. Some would say that there was a belief that he has nothing to gain from that because he's actually pushing forward and others would say um because he's running scared because um even if Gaddy Eisen is not a

17:03 great debater, he would be able to push issues that NetO doesn't want on the agenda and he still wants to be able to control the agenda as much as possible and a debate even between a great orator and a less uh great orator could still bring up issues and manage to move the agenda into a place that Netanyah wouldn't want. So even things like this are very carefully stage managed and it doesn't look like there will be a debate. But the fact that one was even offered it also tells us a little bit about the two sides and their positioning. And with that I'm going to uh go to some of the questions. Uh Steven Miller asked, "What's going on in Gaza? Further dismantic Hamas infrastructure, pushing them further back." Well, not really. They're not the the yellow line hasn't moved in a while.

17:54 Israel still controls, I believe, something like 60%. Um there was a time where the the yellow line, did I say the green line? The yellow line has been moving uh quite frequently more and more forward. That hasn't happened in a while um due largely pressure from the Americans. But if Israel has intelligence on a kamas leader, it will try and target him. As we saw even this week, they tried to take out Sino's number two. Um there still not so much there's no confirmation on that, but it shows that Israel still believes that it has the right to strike. Um and we haven't seen too many condemnations of that. Um, so there is there are still uh actions and events happening in Gaza, but there's uh there's no real uh movement on the ground between the two sides. Um, Jose Monter says, "It's a sad day from Israel from a Spaniard and a Catholic person. My heart goes with you today." Thank you very much, Jose. And uh, we really appreciate your support. Uh, Jack

18:57 Wasam asks, "Does Smatri support the Um he it's it's a difficult one for Smatri because again Smatri is the leader of the religious Zionist party which is ostensively the representative of the religious Zionist um community in Israel which serves in in the army which contributes um and has a very different worldview to the ultra orthodox especially on uh issues of religion and state and certainly of the army. Um uh the fact that he hasn't grown that much support he needed Mosha Fedelin to join to get over the threshold shows that there is has been a backlash against Modric from within the community and and probably this is one of the major issues because he hasn't been strong enough not just on the conscription issue but pretty much there are many many uh touch points where there is a disagreement between the national religious public and the ultraorththodox public whether

20:00 it's in the raut whether Whether it's vote elections for the chief rabbi, whether it's on uh who controls kosher kash, things like that. And the um is for many that whenever it's been a decision between the national religious public, the religious scientist public and the ultraorththodox, he has chosen to side with ultraorththodox or at least not pushed the agenda of his community. And the most glaring issue is on the uh the conscription issue. um you know smart church and many members of the party have said the right things that they don't agree with the uh non-inlistment of the ultra orthodox but when it comes to it they haven't voted against it and even voted for the basic law of learning tra which whose only purpose was to try and create a quasi constitutional um situation uh putting on a level with uh you know national and military service uh learning Torah in other words um learning Yeshiv all day.

21:01 I'm not serving uh in the army. Um so there is anger about that. Um wouldn't say that he supports uh the non um conscription of uh Harim and in fact he would say in theory he does. The argument that he's made throughout the last um four and a half years is why he hasn't come out more strongly against it is because it could potentially bring down a government which he considers the best possible government, a fully right-wing government and uh he's not prepared to put that in danger because even though it is an important issue for him, it's not the biggest issue. The biggest issue is security and on the ground building as much of the settlements as possible and that's something which he has done extremely effectively and a lot of people who are pro-settlement have credited him for them for that um due to his position as finance minister and minister in the ministry of defense in charge of some of these issues. Um so the argument has been made that it's not a perfect

22:03 situation. is a long way. Smooth is not in favor of non-conscription of the ultra orthodox, but he has to choose his battles. And if he wanted to keep this government uh going as long as it did, and it did see out his days, which is quite remarkable and almost unprecedented, then he has to pick his battles. And on this he's decided that the uh security issues and building up settlements is more important with uh the conscription or the mass conscription of uh Karedim. Um and with that I'd like to thank you for your questions and for your participation and apologies again for the technical issues and and why we started a little bit later than usual and wishing you a good night from Mizan. Looking forward to seeing you next week. Thank you.