Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Good evening from Israel for another Israel insider with me Ashley Perry advisor to the Mid East foreign Israel office. If we uh if we wanted evidence of how um short-term things are in the Middle East, we really just had to look at this series of press uh conferences that President Trump gave in Anchor yesterday during his meeting with Turkey's President Erdogan and then various NATO leaders and others. And what we heard was really a major contrast to what we've been hearing the last few weeks and even few months from President Trump about the Iranian leadership. He's spoken many times.

0:42 These are good guys. These are rational guys. We've already got rid of the more extreme guys and these guys we can make a deal with, we can work with, we're happy with. All sorts of positive, you know, adjectives were used. But yesterday, some of the language really went in the completely other direction, calling them crazy, a scum, nonrational. You could just sense the anger um from President Trump. So, what really happened? Well, basically, you know, my assessment was and a lot of people's assessment to Israel is theou was just about buying time. President Trump knew that it probably wouldn't go exactly as written. the Iranians also, but they'd sort of develop some sort of daily routine where the Iranians would push a little bit and the Americans would ignore a little bit, but not too much and the agreement would move on to various stages and both sides could come away saying the agreement was sticking and Iran could say that they were

1:43 getting things and America could talk about, you know, a promising agreement and the fact that there was even room to extend beyond the 60 days. you know, the Iranians read it that uh President Trump just simply did not want military action. He didn't want to he didn't want to return to war, especially with the midterms, perhaps even the current World Cup. uh and they really thought that theou was almost a declaration of victory for them and they just pushed far beyond what they should have and I think this is what led to the exploitives um that came from President Trump yesterday because while President Trump got rid of sanctions on Iran's oil uh and did took various steps uh you know got rid of the blockade etc etc The Iranians clearly were not playing bold.

2:37 You know, at the end of the day, the only thing that mattered at this point was opening up the street of Hormuz really for the US and to a lesser extent Iran. But the fact that uh you know, international shipping trade was going around the other side of the straight of away from Iran towards the Omani side because if you look at the map, you'll see one side has Iran, one side has Omani. The Iranians basically told the world that you can only go through our shipping lanes and there'll be some sort of tout or some sort of gratuitity. Different versions of this and they basically threatened ships and even try to target tankers in the past. But yesterday there was the targeting of I believe up to five tankers that took uh a different route, took the Ammani uh route. Many of these uh ships were accompanied by uh the US fleet or at least some sort of security provisions.

3:29 And this had been going on for a while, but the Iranians obviously thought this was a good opportunity. Uh President Trump um was, you know, looking uh in other directions, wasn't looking for a fight. They misread the situation. Uh yesterday the Americans uh bombed I think it was 80 targets and the Iranians then lashed out as they have done in a while basically targeting Q8 and Bahrain. They claimed also around 80 uh targets. They claimed that they were firing at US bases. But what it means is and again this comes straight from the lips of President Trump is theou is done. Is it really done? you know, no one would really put too much money that tomorrow, you know, calmer heads will prevail. The Iranians will be talking bleos as they always do, but behind the scenes rushing to try and calm the situation. It wouldn't surprise anyone if this happened and we got back into that uh uh situation where, you know, both sides were pushing a little bit,

4:32 but not especially the Iranians, but not too much. But it's clear at this point, President Trump is very angry. He promised strikes again tonight. We'll have to wait and see exactly what that looks like and has threatened all sorts of um things and it does seem at this moment that Donald Trump is ready to rip up the MOU. But as we said, you know, a few days ago, he talked a very different language and tomorrow and a few days time he might talk a different language as well. It's clear that he's being spoken to by a more soft version of the Iranian regime while they continue thinking that they can do what they want. As far as Israel's concerned, it's not surprised. Partly, it's relieved that it's not Israel that can be blamed for it. Obviously, if the Iranians, as they did a couple of days ago, they basically threatened that we won't continue in theou until Israel's completely retreated from Lebanon. that didn't last very long because of this uptick in aggression by Iran that was met by the response to the US. But basically, Israel is not completely

5:35 unhappy, let's put it that way, that we're back to a situation, at least I would argue possibly temporarily, where we have no agreement, but we have no war. It's obviously not the best situation for Israel, but it's certainly better than some of the goodies that were going to be sort of thrown in the Iranian direction because as a result of the MUS at the moment, the blockade might be returned. The oil sanctions are snapped back immediately. So, it's certainly a better situation for Israel and Israel played no part in this escalation at all. But we'll uh we'll we'll see exactly what uh what happens in the days ahead with that. But what it does show again is that the key to all of this is the straight of Kuz and the Iranians understand that and they're trying to apply as much pressure as possible. And what we know what we've seen in the past and the Iranians certainly know is even the threat of escalation in the straight of Kuz will raise oil prices. It will ensure that some companies will think twice about going through there and again it puts

6:40 the pressure back on the Americans or the question remains as always has been who need to deal more. Is it the Iranians who are moving even hurtling towards even greater bankruptcy, financial bankruptcy, or the American administration, the current administration that needs oil prices to be as low as possible going into the midtimes with all the economic rami ramifications that um that come with that? The Iranians are probably betting that they can outlast Donald Trump at least for the next few months until the midterms. Um but we'll have to see how angry Donald Trump really is. Um, and we'll we'll we'll get an idea of that um in the days ahead. The Omani route is central to all of this. Um, if the Americans can continue using the Omani route and the Iranians at some point give up, that will be a great victory.

7:31 If we go back to a situation where Iran dictates who can and when through the um straight up, that will again be um their uh declaration of victory. Um, as far as Israel's defense establishment is concerned, they're on high alert. They understand that while Israel is not the target at the moment, if things escalate, they could certainly be very, very quickly. But also, they're not just thinking on the defensive side. They're also building or at least returning to operational plans, which included a bank of targets. Israel felt that it didn't get to all the targets during Operation Epic Fury or Roaring Lion as it was called um in Israel. And so there's certainly many targets that Israel would like to return to, but again, it won't do so certainly without the green light of Donald Trump, and we'll have to see whether escalation gets that point, but certainly Israel is on high alert, at least the defense establishment is. So we'll have to see what happens there.

8:30 Um, what caused a lot of interest, let's say, not necessarily positive, was also the meeting President Trump had with Turkey's President Erdogan. It was a very warm meeting. Israel obviously doesn't have any great love lost for President Erdogan especially in recent weeks, months, years where the rhetoric coming from anchor has really been ramped up to the point where it just does it it doesn't just accuse Israel of genocide. It, you know, harming its neighbors of not being interested in peace, but is now using the rhetoric that Israel is the scourge, the disease of humanity, and only once it's completely vanished will there be peace.

9:09 I mean it's really the language that's come out not just from President Erdogan but other members of this government really is speaking language that is very threatening the kind of language that we would usually only hear from Thran. So to have uh President Trump talk very warmly with and about President Erdogan certainly uh worried many in Israel when President Trump did talk about you know the the arguments between Turkey and Israel basically almost blaming Israel saying that you know the comments that Prime Minister Netanyahu were not helpful without really mentioning any of the comments from President Erdogan. So that certainly irked many in Jerusalem.

9:48 But what worried Israel far more is the practical ramifications of this you know I would say warming relationship but extremely warm relationship is the promise of the sale of F-35s to Turkey. For many years, um, America still today cannot, um, sell, uh, Turkey F-35s because there was a law put in that once they received the S300 defensive system from Russia a few years ago, uh, America was not allowed to sell a certain amount of [clears throat] military equipment, and that included the F-35s. Well, the S300's were delivered. There's a debate whether they're activated, but they're certainly in the country. But it does seem that uh President Trump is debating um on this issue. There was almost certainty that he would come into anchor and say that we will sell them. But his language was far more circumspect. As we know from President Trump, he doesn't always use that language, which means a decision has not yet been made. But it's certainly a big concern. President

10:50 Erdogan certainly thinks that the deal is done and a promise is a promise and President Trump promised. But it certainly was enough to worry Prime Minister Netanyahu took to the um the American media airways. Yesterday's CNN and a few others basically warning that this is a big mistake is look is an uh regime. This is the argument that Prime Minister Netany was making. that threatens Israel. And it was certainly the message was sent. So much so that there was supposed to be a meeting, a visit today of Secretary of War Pete Hexer to Jerusalem. There was a lot of discussions exactly what that would look like, whether that was calming down Israel or whether it was offering Israel something in exchange for the Turkish the possible sale to Turkey of the F-35s. perhaps talk of something that could calm Israel to make sure that it retains what's been called over the years the QME the qualitative military edge to make sure that regardless of what is sold in the region and there's

11:52 been blowups in this Nepal whether to sales to Egypt to Saudi Arabia even to the UAE that whatever is sold Israel will still retain that qualitative military edge basically to keep the peace because if countries are given the same equipment the same quality equipment in is as Israel that will certainly uh you know ensure that the region is less safe. Um but that meeting or that visit by Peter was suspended at least for now and there was a feeling that he was rushing back to Washington to see to perhaps military plans, military operations in and around Iran, but it seems that he remained in Turkey.

12:33 So we'll have to see exactly what's going on there. moving a little bit north. The situation with Lebanon is is is a little bit um sensitive at the moment. The Lebanese president Aun has been invited by President Trump uh to Washington on the 21st of July, I believe it is. There was some hope in some quarters that there could be a trilateral meeting because um President Mess also got an invitation to meet with um President Trump soon. No date was uh given for that, but it's clear the Lebanese are not ready to go that far.

13:08 There there's a feeling that the Lebanese president has gone quite far, but to have an open meeting with Israel while Israel, the IDF remains in Lebanon is probably a step too far. And in fact, at the moment, there seems to be doubt whether the next meeting between Lebanese and Israeli direct officials and direct negotiations in Rome might not take place because Israel has still not given a timetable for one of the two areas it's supposed to retreat from. In this pilot scheme, it said it still needs a bit more time to completely root out any uh presence in that area, but it's something which the Lebanese are disappointed by. Um, we'll have to see exactly what happens there. Finally turning to domestic politics and this is probably causing Prime Minister Natino as much a headache as anything else at the moment. There's only I think a week to go in the Knesset before we go to the summer recess and this will be it for this Knesset. There will be elections called but again there's a bit of a standoff between um Prime Minister Netany and the ultra orthodox parties. I

14:13 talked last week about the fact that both sides wanted to pass laws and there'll be a quid proquo there. Um it seems that the ultraorththodox are uh are disappointed. They they want greater sense of urgency and whereas Prime Minister Netany wants to hold out as long as possible because to pass these laws like the basic law learning uh Torah and ensuring that no ultraorththodox youth who were supposed to go to the army and did not enlist but will not be arrested that that's a law that they want to pass until maybe the end of the year. These will be pretty unpop first of all very unpopular across the country but even unpopular within the liquid and even within his liquid Knesset faction. So it's a bit of a tight rope that wants to try and power some of the laws that he himself is interested in whether it's the um commission of inquiry as opposed to a state commissioner inquiry will be far more political and he'll be able to

15:15 control that's very important to him. There's other laws which are important to others within his coalition. Obviously, uh the most important to justice minister of Lavine, something they've been trying to do from the beginning is split uh the position of attorney general. That's considered very important for many uh in the liquid. But they won't be able to pass any of these uh things without the support of the ultraorththodox parties. Netanyahu has to try and find a way to get their support without giving them too much. uh when he's they're trying to uh uh include um wording that will make it a little bit more palatable for some of his partners and some of his electorate but the ultra orthodox are standing firm and it could be like many many situations throughout the last four years that the ultraorththodox are not ready to come down. They want their maximalist approach. They could have something rather than nothing, but it seems that they want to go for everything and Nata that it is a case of, you know, who's going to flinch first, but we'll have to see exactly how

16:17 that works out. I think Natino knows it'd be a mistake to pass the laws as they are very unpopular and could lose him some of his, let's say, soft base, but um he also needs to pass some of these laws. But again, it all depends what's more important to him. And at the end of the day, elections are looming and Netanyahu is falling in the polls. The first poll was released this evening, I think channel 13, which basically showed for the first time that Gaddy Eisenot's party actually has one more seat according to the polls than Latin liquid. And that's the first time that has happened. So certainly not a good omen uh for Latin even though there's a lot of time in the campaign hasn't really started earnest even though the uh political campaign videos are coming out and we're seeing more more parties enter the race we saw a new party tropendo we probably going to see another party and probably other unions and new parties we'll have to wait and see what happens there but all of these could

17:19 have a tremendous effect on not just the power of each party but the power balance between the blocks which at the end of the day is the most important thing if we're going to get a result which could lead to new government uh when elections take place probably uh later in October and with that I'm going to go to some questions uh William Baguette asked did I read right that Hamas is giving up power to a UN uh group no yes or no they have decided as a tactic to officially resign a governmental positions. Um, not to the UN, but to a so-called technocratic committee of Palestinians. But this is being seen within Israel as just a a maneuver, a tactic. They're going to keep their guns and when they have their guns, they're still going to control the situation in the Gaza Strips. While they might not rule in name, they will certainly rule in practice because at the end of the day in the um Hamas controlled art of Gaza, they're the only

18:22 gun in town. And while you had the only gun in town, you basically control that space. So regardless of what titles Hamas leaders might or might not have, um this is just a tactic to try and get to the next stage of the you know what the agreement and try and pressure Israel into retreating and getting lots more benefits uh for Hamas. Eric Sophern is Israel that the US is selling a hard place to Turkey. What about the US taking Syria off the ban countries? both concerned. I, you know, I went into Israel's concerned about the F-35s. It's very, very concerned about that, especially with the rhetoric that's coming out of uh Turkey. Let's not forget um before President Erdogan, Israel and Turkey had a very strong strategic uh relationship. So, probably in those days, it wouldn't have minded, you know, the America selling Turkey the F-35s. But we're talking about a very different regime. a regime that has openly called for the destruction of Israel that says, you know, that the only answer to world peace is the end of

19:26 Israel. So, you know, it's it's being seen in Israel, this is just my interpretation, almost as bad as sending to Iran because Turkey has taken over that particular um uh you know, the rhetoric of the Islamic regime and there's a concern that they have a certain control over Syria and various other proxies in the region. So Turkey is a different has a different status to Iran. It's a NATO. It's a member of NATO. It's much closer to Israel. It has close relationships to many in the West including as we see President Trump. So it's very very concerned about the US taking Syria off the ban country list. It's also probably something which Jerusalem is not happy about less so than the other issue. um it still doesn't believe that um Julani is a moderating factor but certainly Syria is not the great worry at this point uh in Jerusalem is Israel's Kar Hinaban to ask is Israel's assessment that Trump would initiate significant mil military action against Iran before

20:28 the midterm elections well the assessment was that up until a couple of days ago probably not but as we know in the Middle East things can escalate quite quickly if the US continues to escalate and Iran escalates more perhaps, you know, targets Israel and Israel then would need to target back. Things can escalate pretty quickly, it's clear that President Trump did not want and probably still doesn't want a significant escalation. He was asked whether it's return to war and he said no. I think that's pretty much where he stands at the moment. He doesn't want a a return to war or major operations. But again, things might escalate pretty quickly, especially with the Iranians who believe that um they have the upper hand. Uh and that's the major problem here is Iran as ever since the end of the operations felt that it won in some way. It has the upper hand. So it can act as bell coast as it wants and it's u has been misreading the situation now for a few months. So it wouldn't surprise Israel if it continues to misread the situation and things

21:29 escalate quickly. That is something that they are trying to prepare for. We'll just have to wait and see. Um Lois Helman asked what happens when Israel withdraws from an area of Lebanon and Hezbollah comes back into there. Well, the idea is that that wouldn't happen. The agreement is that it would only do a pilot two pilot areas. And if they saw that once Israel retreated, it wasn't the Lebanese army that came in, but it was Chrisbala and they basically took over that territory, then simply there wouldn't be any more pilot areas. Let's not forget these pilot areas are relatively small considering how much territory the IDF holds at this point.

22:05 Everything has to be really implemented. It's not a matter of retreat. The idea of retreating into Israel and then having to go back into Lebanon. These pilots were designed in a way that they're not on the Israeli border which would create obviously tremendous strain uh and greater pressure on the IDF. They are south of the so it's not you know to take anything for granted but that's why they're called pilot areas to make sure that this is something that can work that when Israel retreats from a territory it's not that comes in but it's actually um the Lebanese army. So we'll have to wait and see what happens there. George Pios asked do you believe that President Trump considers the MOU as finished or is there something else behind and why you Trump keeps saying these statements in fair. Um, as I said, he just paraphrasing him that theou is done. I'm not sure I'm paraphrasing. I think I'm actually quoting. But again, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if within a couple of days the Iranians snuck back to the table behind the scenes with the tail between their legs

23:08 and President Trump considered theou back in action. The Iranians are under pressure. They have their own pressures. they differ to what obviously President Trump has and at the moment he's saying it's finished but there could be you know completely different uh uh reality tomorrow the next day the second part of your question why is President Trump so in favor of President Erdog there's been a lot of analysis about this he likes strong leaders he understands President Erdogan perhaps as President Trump has laid out President Erdogan could have entered the war on the side of Iran I don't think that was likely Personally, it could be that that was a message sent to Washington, but I can't imagine Turkey would attack in any way America or Israel during operations over Iran.

23:55 So, it could be that that's what was sent in and then when they decided not to, President Trump perhaps uh believe that this is someone who, you know, he he can be in favor of the Americans and he can listen to the listen to President Trump and decided to act against his own interest. Whatever the truth is, it does seem that that relationship is pretty strong. The warm words of President Erdogan were very distinctive. Certainly President Prime Minister Netanyao hasn't heard such words himself from President Trump's lips for a while. But you know there are there are thousand1 analyses of exactly why President Trump and President Erdogan uh get on so well. But at the end of the day, President Erdogan is a member of NATO. It is trying as much as possible. Let's not forget that um Turkey didn't have such a good uh relationship with President Biden and the Democrats. They're far more comfortable like other countries like Saudi Arabia and even Qatar um with Republican uh leaders. So, you know, they understand that if they're going to

24:59 get anything, it's probably in the next two years because who knows what happen um after after the next presidential election. And so I'm sure President Erdogan is saying everything that President Trump wants to hear at this point and that's probably why there was this warm atmosphere in Anchora this week. And with that, I want to thank you a few questions. So I couldn't get to all of them, but uh hopefully there'll be another opportunity next week. With that, I'd like to again thank you all and say good evening from Israel or good day wherever you are and hope to see you next week.