Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:02 Hello and good evening from Israel for a another Israel insider with me Ashley Perry advisor to this from Israel's office here in Israel and around the Jewish world it is the festival of Sukkot we're in the intermediate days um and you know one would think they'd be relatively quiet because most Israelis are on vacation on holiday um and you can see that the streets are packed. The um the various uh tourism sites or camping sites or amusement parks etc etc um are full at the moment. Uh people aren't really thinking so much about politics. Um but that doesn't mean it's uh you know politics doesn't reach them.

0:50 Um obviously uh tonight or today we're hearing about the almost absolutely horrendous event uh that took place on a fly Dubai flight from uh Dubai to Israel. These flights uh take place multiple times a day and have done since normalization between Israel and the UAE. Um it's a well-known route packed full of Israelis especially as I said um during the vacation period I was at the airport over the last couple of uh days and it's absolutely packed Israelis coming and going and uh Dubai and Abu Dhabi are very well frequented uh destinations also sometimes they their transit points onto other places um so far you know all these flights have gone off pretty much without incident But today obviously is that major exception.

1:46 Uh for those who don't know and all the details are not 100% clear, but from what we know um well it seems like one of the pl uh pilots obviously in every flight there's uh two uh pilots. One of the pilots ani uh citizen uh at one point drew a dagger or an axe. We're not 100% uh clear. It seems like it was probably a dagger on his co-pilot who was an Indian national um I guess to try and subdue him to kill him so he could then take sole control over the cockpit and it's unclear exactly what he intended to do. some uh suggested and again we we might never know or maybe that we will get some clues in the coming days. Um either crash it with all the I think it was 124 mostly Israelis into the the desert of uh Saudi Arabia, maybe Jordan, or maybe fly into Israel for for a 9 uh 11 type attack on a major

2:51 Israeli um site, building, etc. We don't know. What seemed to happen is in the ensuing struggle the Indian co-pilot managed to open the door and as we know uh the [ __ ] the cockpit door as we know since 911 uh cockpit doors are sealed uh from the inside. No one from the outside can get uh to it. So it would only be able to be open from someone in the inside. So it had appeared that the Indian um who obviously is is now being lorded as a hero was able to open it. He was very badly wounded, but it gave enough time for some of the passengers uh to be be able to attack the pilot that caused the incident. um eventually subdue him uh overcome him and apparently there were two uh uh Fly Dubai pilots, one Brit and one other European who were on that flight who were supposed to take over in case there

3:54 was any slight disruption in time. may be a late takeoff. It may be a slight diver u uh divergence in the in the flight path because the two pilots were getting very close to their um maximum amount amount of time of flying. Anyone who knows about aviation law, there's only a certain amount of time that pilots can fly and they were getting very close to it. So there were two other pilots who were going to take over after this flight. So they were on that flight and that was one of the miracles really that that saved the uh the event. Uh but basically uh there were some Israelis who did manage to get in did subdue um the pilot apparently with electric cables and eventually after plummeting I mean you know I I don't know the exact measurement but at one point it sounded like they were even going almost popping you know flying straight down um and almost going to hit the ground and it was again the timing seemed to be miraculous. ulous and thankfully they were able to land in

4:59 north northwest Saudi Arabia. They were the Israelis or the the passengers were treated very well. Um there's a bit of it there was a bit of a diplomatic incident. Israel wanted to send a uh an air force flight to pick them up. Uh the Saudis because of sensitivity did not allow that. Then there was suggestion that LR flight would go. That also didn't happen. Uh so in the end a another Fly Dubai airline was sent in. As one can imagine there were some Israelis who were very reticent or hesitant to get on another Fly Dubai flight. But from what we understand, all of the passengers did get on that uh flight and returned safely to Israel this evening to a hero's welcome. And of course uh like everything else less than one month before elections, it immediately got turned into a political uh event. We saw Prime Minister Netanyo at the airport

6:01 meeting with some of the passengers especially those who are instrumental in um the um the pilot and even one uh doctor only a dentist but obviously as we know dentists do study uh you know all parts of medicine and was able to um uh I don't know if saved the life I don't know if his life was in danger but definitely was able to uh help uh the pilot the Indian pilot was severely uh stabbed during the uh attacks. What it has done already is, you know, as I said, it's really put a cleave uh in Israel's political um season. What we heard earlier in the week was um Prime Minister Netanyahu along with Defense Minister Katz um talked about um some major security events happening in and around the elections. Um there was a security briefing which is supposed to take place regularly anyway with the leader of the opposition Y Leid uh about

7:05 these threats. Y lid came out later and said there was absolutely no mention on anything like a hijacking or 9 911 attack. Again we really don't know if this Omani individual acted alone or if he was involved in some organization. apparently hadn't been flying too long before fly Dubai. Um so we really don't know too much beyond that. But uh basically the warnings of attacks of terror of uh of whatever they are, whatever they might be uh was immediately jumped on uh by the opposition. The scareongering uh this was you know earlier in the week. Um but what is important is that uh again you know not not to put too many too much intention into the mind of of any of the the major political players but what we do know for certain is the more security is the focus of the elections the campaign the last few weeks the better

8:07 Netanyahu and his block will do that is where they're strongest they are security hawks um Israel is still reeling psychologically from October 7th. Even though it is 3 years away, it's still there. We are Israel is still fighting on multiple fronts are, you know, many Israelis are still in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, uh elsewhere doing hundreds of days of uh uh annual service. So the issue of security is very much there and the more that it becomes the prominent issue in the elections, the better Netanyah will do.

8:44 earlier on in the campaign or even pre- campaign where the issue was the ultraorththodox enlistment uh integration of the ultraorththodox etc etc that the coalition did worse and the opposition did better that is a kitty's heel of nata it's not something that makes him look good um most Israelis whether they're left right or center um are find the issue very problematic and are against the current coalition's position on it uh even though in the end they weren't able to legislate an enlistment law or a non-inlistment law depending how you look at it but either way it is not an issue which served Netino and he had been scrambling for an agenda point for quite a while um over the last few days certainly it seems that NetO has reclaimed to a certain extent uh the agenda with this issue we know obviously we saw that he spoke at the UN uh last week at the end of last week and again talked about all the

9:47 threats and obviously all his successes uh we saw uh the so-called mass walkout it actually wasn't as large as some like to think uh most nations remained in the room at the time and um most Europeans most western countries certainly very few walked out um but we also know that there was an attempt at orchestration by the Palestinian delegation to the UN which basically sent a message round to all other delegations uh to make sure that they were in the room just before Netanyahu rose to speak in the podium and then would walk out as he made his way uh to the podium. uh that was not denied and in fact they even suggested to bring as many uh people from the delegation you know the UN delegations have sometimes uh you know a lot of people junior people secretaries etc to try and bring them all there to make it look um as large as possible uh so it it it did make quite a scene

10:51 speech certainly didn't have the surprises that he promised there was nothing particularly surprising there wasn't the gimmicks either really did come out with a you know a sort of a line that certainly his proponents will enjoy when he said if there are any more moral cowards in this room please leave now because it was clear that the walk out was going to happen as it happened last year and uh in some previous uh years um but certainly Netting was on solid ground it didn't give him that the speech probably didn't give him a major boost but certainly the turn of the security to the agenda has given the current coalition a boost. At the moment, according to most polls that I've seen, it's either neck andneck between the uh the current coalition, the current opposition, neither are getting in the late 50s, let alone over 60 in the region of 52, 53, 54, 55, depending which poll you see. Um but it's clear that neither side are any

11:54 closer uh to a coalition but the numbers don't tell the whole story because while the coalition is maxed out on whatever that number should be um the opposition number does not include the Arab parties and that's important and sometimes even US Hendle's party um which in theory is considered a third block but would certainly be more comfortable in uh the opposite ition rather than alongside Netanyao. Um, and what why that's important is is the following. while the opposition at the moment who by the way had a meeting I think it was Saturday night uh to try and coordinate their campaign we're talking about um uh Eisenot Bennett Laid u Lieberman and um Yay Golan tried to have a meeting again understanding that they were losing the narrative a little bit they were losing the agenda a little bit they had to uh coordinate better and also they agreed

12:57 to go after their audiences uh succinctly and specifically uh and not target each other. One of the things that has also stymied their growth in recent days is while Netanyahu is talking about the issues um the opposition is sort of caught in this. Are they going to sit with the Arabs? Who's going to nominate who for prime minister? Because at the moment uh Eisenhol is obviously well ahead amongst the opposition parties but both Naftali Bennett and a Victor Leeman both consider themselves prime ministerial candidates and that's caused um some would argue certainly in Eisenot's camp a little bit of a a cloud because there's no one person who's standing out in front. Now, it makes sense for Lieberman and uh Netanyahu to say that they are running for not Netanyahu, sorry, Bennett that they are running for prime minister because if they say, "Oh, we're going to support Eisenot," then

13:59 they will probably both um have some of their voters go to Eisenot. Because they'll say, "Well, we want to go with a person who's most likely." So, it makes sense strategically not to back Eisenot at this point. Um but uh that's basically been the debate at the moment in the opposition and because of that they haven't really been able to uh define the message and control the agenda. We've spoken many times in the past that uh for a successful campaign it has to define the agenda because when you're uh uh when when you're reacting you're usually losing in politics and at the moment the opposition is just reacting. Um at the moment as I said Netanyao is very much able to control the agenda. Incumbency is very important. He is the prime minister when he talks about security issues. The media will relay it. People will talk about it and regardless of whether the opposition say he is uh using scare tactics. It's less relevant. The fact is that people are talking about it and

15:00 that is only good for the Netinho block. what I was trying to say before uh that uh it's important to note that the opposition isn't just um the so-called Zionist parties those uh people who met on Saturday night that I mentioned but actually there's already there's also uh another what is it uh uh 10 something seats in the Arab sector Ram and the joint list now they are not obvious partners for the opposition um and uh almost all of the opposition leaders apart from Golan has said that they will not sit in a government certainly not with a joint list who are uh you know proudly raidly some of them Ram has sat in a coalition not in the government if we remember during the Bennett laid uh period um but the question is can they rely on them even to make a minority government it is possible constitutionally for there to be a government of less than 61. If

16:04 Eisenhot were to get for example 55 seats and uh uh basically have the Arab parties abstain when they voted in the government um then they will be able to do quite a lot legislatively. The first thing that they will probably do is replace the speaker. At the moment, Amir Alana is a loyalist, very prominent liquid member and that is very important because the speaker of the Knesset is the one who controls the agenda, the legislative debate and if they were able to replace him uh then they would be able to start moving along perhaps at least on the legislative issue even if they're not able to do much on a governmental issue because of their minority. for example, things like um whether they could pass a law to create a state commission of inquiry into the events surrounding the October 7th massacre. That's something, as we know, Prime Minister Netanyahu's avoided. He's talked about something lesser, but that's something that most

17:08 Israelis want and certainly something the opposition would want. Another thing perhaps they could do is limit um the number of terms of a prime minister. something that obviously the coalition has avoided, but the opposition very much wants to see or even uh pass a law to um disbar a uh prime minister who is under investigation from uh from uh being in his in in office. We know that a minister has to resign if he or she is under investigation. But as we saw, it's a little bit more of a gray area when we're talking about prime minister. And as a result, Netanyao has not been forced to resign, not by the Supreme Court and not constitutionally.

17:53 But perhaps these are the things that they could change even if they're not able to get a majority in the government and get too much moving on a governmental level at a legislative level. if they have the uh silent acquiescence of the Arab parties on a shared agenda uh perhaps they could get something done and that's certainly something that worries Netanyahu. So at the moment his aim as much as possible is to get every single seat to try and ensure that not only will Eisenot uh and the uh opposition receive a majority but even not have enough to rely uh on the Arab parties trying to do what he did last time to try and peel off as many singular uh members of Knesset. Um I see that there's already a question in the chat. please put it in the Q&A um to peel off enough who said you know you promise not to rely on the out parties um please do not uh do not allow this to happen and vote against uh this sort of

18:58 minority government. So these are the things that we're going to see and that's the reason Netanyahu is trying to um trying to ensure that every vote uh for possible coalition party passes and trying to ensure that those like Hendo and his partner and even Off Winter uh do not waste votes. Um we'll have to wait and see that. So even though we had a a potentially almost terrible tragic event today, even that is getting caught up in the campaign calendar uh which is which is to be expected even if one might argue that it's unfortunate with that. I'm going to go to the questions.

19:40 Okay, Steven Miller asks, "What which side do you think most likely to form a government after the election and what are main ways they could do it?" Well, um I guess yeah, I see that you put your question before I uh finished my uh my remarks, which is fair enough. I did say to put questions up. Um at the moment, as I said, it doesn't seem like NetO has the numbers. There are polls usually by very very favorable media to NetO that show that he has got a pathway to 61 plus. Um but most of the more neutral polls do not show him anything more than 55. 55 is still six seats away. One thing that is very important which I haven't mentioned is there are according to all polls uh that I've seen there is a very large undecided um uh number uh that will probably get uh smaller as the uh as as the campaign draws to a close. Israel usually has a very high uh vote vote ratio. It's usually in the

20:45 70s. So even those who say they haven't made up their mind probably will do by then. Whether they're going to go with the current coalition or the opposition um remains to be seen. Uh again we'll see um if as has happened before there could be many amongst those who will you know as they say hold their nose and vote. Netao has the best of the worst. Net is very good at that perception that there's no one else who can do that job even if you believe he's made uh many mistakes. So at the moment my sense would be we could be facing another round of elections. Uh certainly it will go to the uh to the end to the last moment. Um there is that possibility of relying on a minority government relying on the Arab extensions. Um but it would be a very shortlived government anyway probably or perhaps there are those who are hoping that if they get minority government perhaps they can um have liquid internal processes uh ensure that

21:50 Netino uh gets pushed aside and then liquid without NetO could join the government although there's a lot of ifs and buts before that could happen. Harry Hillbran asked why isn't the opposition more aggressively push the point of the government surrening to the karedi parties to accommodate draft exemptions and transferring large sums their institutions well they have I mean that as I said during the early parts of the campaign that was the issue if not the only issue that was uh of interest and for many Israelis it is still an issue but it has kind fallen off a little bit by design as well as by default. Maybe the Kedi leaders um the ultra orthodox leaders have managed to quell their extremists arguing to them that this is not the time uh that it's only hurting them. Uh the opposition certainly is trying to bring that issue to the four. At the moment, security is

22:53 ruling and at the end of the day, security is paramount as one can imagine in a country like Israel, fighting on as many fronts as it does. Really, if security is on the ballot, if if security is in the air, security will be on the on the ballot regardless of other issues. It will be there no matter what. anything else the issue of the karedi uh um and and the wider issues you say transferring large sums to the institution will be there u but it will not be number one um I've seen enough polls uh to show that it's not the number one issue um but again if there are large demonstrations uh perhaps some some egregious event happens which again brings it to the four but that is something the prime prime minister and his partners in the coalition will do everything to avoid because as I said the more that that is prominent the worse the government the current government will do at the polls.

23:53 Um so at the moment they're trying to keep in the background even though the uh opposition will certainly be trying to push that uh to the front knowing that is a weakness for the coalition. Um, [clears throat] Kiri Ismile asked, "Do you think that Netany will lose the election and end his year as a prime minister?" Um, will he lose the election? Um, I don't think he'll win the election. How does he not win the election and maybe not lose? at the moment I would say his the most likely survival tactic for him is to ensure that even if he does not win which seems highly unlikely um that the other side does not have a pathway to power does not have a pathway to governance does not have a pathway uh to get that 61 which will mean that perhaps we'll go for another round of elections and that will be at least 3 months perhaps more uh perhaps even up to six months and let's not forget during During that time, Natino will still remain in the prime minister seat.

24:56 Certainly, he will not have the power to make too many large decisions as um a government is not allowed to during any campaign as they're currently not allowed to. Um so, I have one rule in Israeli politics. You never get the bet against Bibby. Um he has pulled off um I'm not sure for worse situations like this. This is definitely the fight of his political life, but he is a consumer politician. He's a very good campaigner and as we're seeing now at the crucial time less than one one months before the election, he is once again able to control the agenda. There was a time only a couple of weeks ago where he was flailing a little bit, but now he's been able to reclaim and retake it. Um, so certainly he's in a better place. Will he win the election? I doubt it. Will he lose it? That remains to be seen.

25:52 Jack Wesserman asks, "Is judicial reform dead?" Um well, I mean, it's certainly dead for now because we're the Knesset isn't meeting and it will only meet again after the elections, after the results come in, after the seats have been divvied up and we will see a new uh Knesset. The likelihood again according to the polls the current uh coalition which pushed judicial reform will not have a majority. Again that's not to that's not to preempt the results but it does seem from now that the current coalition which has a comfortable majority uh which tried to push judicial reform but were not able to pass too much. They were able to get uh some uh areas of it [clears throat] but they weren't able to uh pass too much. uh and that is why those like um uh Batal Smatri are trying to make that issue again at the forefront because they realize that's important for their electorate. Uh so at the moment judicial reform is dead. Whether it can be raised again after the elections depends on the

26:58 results. But the way things are going uh the proponents of the let's say the more extreme version of judicial reform will probably not have a majority. But what should be said is that there are proponents in the current opposition like Napali Bennett, like Kavdan and others who believe in some sort of a more moderate uh judicial reform. So, it's not dead completely and it's not impossible. It could be resurrected at some point. But certainly the more extreme uh elements that were talked about uh in the last campaign and during uh the current uh government uh do not seem like they have uh too much of a life ahead of themselves, at least during the next term. And with that, I'd like to thank you very much for your questions and your participation. and I will see you next week. Thank you and good night for Misha.