Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:00 Hello and good evening from Israel and welcome to another Israel Insider with me Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle East forum Israel office. As usual, I'll be speaking for 15 to 20 minutes and then I will leave uh it open for questions. As always, please put your questions in the Q&A box at the bottom of the screen, not in the chat box. Every week someone puts in the chat box and I don't get to it because I don't open the chat box. I only open the Q&A uh box. So, please put questions there.

0:32 You can put now uh towards the end of my remarks, during the question and answer session whenever you like before the end. And I will try and get to as many questions as possible. [clears throat] Well, we're going to start um with uh a major event that was not completely unexpected uh from Israel's point of view, and that was the UK, which was then followed by uh something like a dozen other countries uh officially um laid out a sanctions sanctions regime against uh uh the settlements against um settlement goods that are now going to be illegal to enter the UK. Um, and companies, individuals who provide services uh to the settlements could also be sanctioned. This is something that the UK government has threatened to do um for for a little time. And uh finally this week uh they uh announced I

1:37 wouldn't say they implemented, they announced it. And now apparently over the next few months they're going to be working out exactly how to implement it, how to activate it. And according to sources they will the implementation will depend on the behavior uh as they put it of the Israeli government current and future. Um so we'll have to see exactly what that looks like. Apparently there is a is an array of sanctions that could be added to this. At the moment we just have the headlines and apparently um a bunch of bodies and organizations in the UK are going to be working exactly how that's going to be implemented but we understand the general theme. Um the question that uh many are asking is why now? Um, first of all, you know, anyone from the most junior cadet in Israel's foreign ministry understands that these things are largely down to local domestic politics. They're about trying

2:42 to pick up uh some support. If you look at many of the countries that enacted this policy this week, it was enacted by uh governments with flailing uh popularity. If we think of Spain, if we think of France, even the UK, although um we have seen with the um the the beginning of the new British uh Prime Minister Andy Bernham, there has been a bit of a peak in the polls for Labor, it was really uh doing extremely poorly. And over the last few weeks, uh there is a bit of a peak and they're they're trying to get as much momentum as possible. uh while they don't have any general elections on the horizon there's all talk of maybe if they get to a certain point there could be snap elections whatever the and I've also heard that there might be local elections on the offing so what they're trying to do is trying to you know Israel is always an easy win there are a lot of people in Europe and beyond Canada even the US Australia

3:46 um obviously the US didn't get involved in this but some of the other countries did that basically, as they put it, Gaza was on the ballot. In other words, um the Israel issue, the Israel Palestinian issue is at the forefront of many voters, not just Muslims, but also far-left. Um and to take action against Israel wins you some votes. Uh we'll talk about Israel's reaction a little bit, but it's an easy win. They're not going to do it against Turkey, for example, which is occupying territory in at least three countries. Um and you know don't need me to go into some of the actions taken by the Turkish government against minorities in its own country and minorities in other countries. Um but of course we will not see anything even slightly similar against them. So I could go on a host of countries a host of conflicts um border conflicts which just simply the UK government wouldn't even think about u touching. So this is an easy win. It is all down to local domestic uh

4:49 politics. Um and uh really what the the timing is also a little bit suspicious because the question would be if you really want to, you know, have an effect on the Israeli government. Why would you do it six weeks before elections, general elections as we're having in Israel on October 27th? um why not wait to see what the next government will look like? I mean it is almost an absolute certainty that the current government the current makeup of the the government which is described by themselves as the most right-wing government in history is almost certainly never rule anything out and we'll talk about the domestic politics a little bit later but it's almost certainly not going to be the same consolation. So why not wait? Um [clears throat] what is clear as as well as it's about domestic politics is the UK government was clearly looking for a fight. Um to do this now in an election campaign season where it's obvious a

5:53 right-wing government cannot back down. Uh they were going to react and probably there'll be a reaction to a reaction and and who knows where you know it will it will continue uh deteriorating from there. Um, as I said, the the the Israeli government took a series of measures uh in retaliation. Um they've um ordered the uh UK uh consulate in Jerusalem which is a long-standing consulate which while it is sitting within the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem and thus um uh sovereign uh Israel it really just looks after the Palestinians on the whole not just but mostly that's it's in charge of uh you know Judea and Samaria the West Bank and Gaza and East Jerusalem. Um they've ordered that to be closed and the pe and the um diplomats to leave within 30 days. They've also uh put out a list of 11 British MPs which will not be allowed

6:56 to uh visit Israel. These are mostly extremely hostile uh members of parliament to Israel. Um they've also um uh removed uh or the call for the removal I think within 10 days of uh uh British representatives from the Gaza Coordination Center, that center that's put together by the Board of Peace to monitor what's going on uh in Gaza to work with the two parties to try and move forward on the uh implementation plan by President uh Trump. And finally, um, that the British will no longer be able to help train, uh, Palestinian Authority policemen, which has been a long-standing, uh, job of, uh, some British forces. Um, so there's there's a bit of a rash of reaction and probably there'll be a reaction to that. Again, I I think it's clear that the Brits wanted a fight. If not, why not just wait to see what the next government does? try and see if there can be a more

7:58 diplomatic way to send a similar message. Um, yes, there has been undoubtedly an uptick in uh settler violence in Israelis in Judea and Samaria uh West Bank against uh Palestinians. Some of it, you know, we can argue who started it, but clearly, you know, regardless of all other issues, there has been an uptick. And it's something which even this you know right-wing government has been trying to deal with but it's very difficult. We are we are talking about at most a few hundred uh individuals in a settler wider settler population of half a million. So we're we're not even talking about a percentage of the population. So this isn't really against those radicals. It's not really against the government itself. It's trying to score political points. is trying to start a fight to burnish its credentials at home and that's clear to everybody uh in Israel. So I have to see how far this rhetoric between the two countries goes

9:01 because these are arguably the strongest official steps taken by Western friendly government um against Israel um in in in a very long time. So we'll have to see exactly what happens. More disturbingly for Israel is the silence of the US. Um it is it has been reported that um uh the British prime minister uh did express his intention to do this in a call with US President Donald Trump.

9:34 This is what's being reported and Donald Trump himself did not uh express opposition to this and even accepted some of the criticisms uh against Israeli uh government policy. that will certainly worry uh Jerusalem far more than the actions taken by Britain and some of the other countries. Um and it's clear that uh uh whether it's President Trump or others in the administration, they are certainly not particularly happy with this government. And the uh the support or let's say the long-standing support uh that Netanyahu was hoping for uh from uh President Trump really does not uh seem to be coming uh any uh time soon. Um it was just reported just before I came uh you know uh we started this that President Trump made very interesting remarks conceding that the price of oil will not go down until after the midterms when I quote unquote if I'm getting it correct uh the war will end with uh Iran. Um now

10:41 whether that means that the war will end because they'll take military steps as many have suggested including myself that once the midterms are over they the Americans will feel more free uh to to militarily attack uh America or the suggestion uh seems to possibly be that the the longer these economic measures siege against Iran continues uh the closer it will come to collapse and they'll have to give in and uh Americans will get what they want or as some are suggesting and certainly in intelligence and security circles in Israel that we might even be getting closer to the collapse of the regime at some point by the end of the year. Either way, these are very interesting remarks. First of all, a concession that the price of oil will not go down before the midterms and the war itself will probably end after the midterms themselves. Another big issue that um has caused a lot of attention, caught a lot of attention in

11:43 Israel is this assertion in the Israeli newspaper Harets. Let's not forget Harets is a far-left uh newspaper which is not particularly popular in Israel. Has a very very small market share but is widely read around the world. It is the paper of choice of diplomats of uh international media decision makers, opinion shapers around the world. So it has an outside influence around the world. came out with uh quite a um a a a shock headline which was that uh apparently it's from a book that soon to be released that NBZ the leader of the UAE called Netanyao 10 days before October uh uh uh the October massacre um in 2023 and told him that Yah Sinoir is um uh you know planning something very big. uh maybe not the exact details of what happened um but certainly warning him that Hamas are planning something extremely big and uh the prime minister

12:47 according to these reports didn't take it seriously didn't even really inform that people needed to be um informed and uh one can imagine that you know these reports could be very damaging now what the truth is we don't know obviously uh NetO put out uh a press police calling it a complete lie saying the National Security Council, the Shinbet and everybody looked through his call logs and basically said that there were no such calls um in the months before uh the the massacre with MBZ. Obviously, you know, no one actually sees those recorded calls and according to former defense minister Yand who was defense minister at the time said it's very easy to hide these things anyway. He's he he said he doesn't know anything about this particular alleged call but he he knows that there were many many calls which were not officially logged. He didn't know about it etc etc. Um I should say that uh according to these reports also

13:49 President Herzog received a similar call. President Herzog's uh office denied it denied that that is what happened. Interestingly, the UAE itself put out a response without a firm denial. It was clear that there was [snorts] not going to be the sort of uh the firm denial that we saw from uh Netanya or even Herzog's office. Um while the prime minister really tried to put or his office tried to put as much pressure on the UAE to come out with a firm denial, they clearly did not want to. uh if you look at the statement it does not even really address the issue head on at all. Uh which leads you know more more people to talk about it. Um we might not know the truth as many people say until there is an official state commission in of inquiry which is not happening at least before uh these elections and we'll have to see the makeup of the um the next government to

14:52 see whether whether there'll be one uh A major event also yesterday was the um closing of the lists uh to compete in the next election. There's something over 30 parties um officially registered for the elections. According to the most generous surveys, only at the most 12 really seem to stand a chance of passing the threshold. There weren't too many surprises in the leadup or on the day. uh Erdan um Gillard Erdan and Julie Edstein who tried to uh create a list um whose main issue was you know to try and attract right-wing voters uh angry about the lack of enlistment of ultraorththodox basically wasn't getting any closer to the threshold and bowed out of the race completely there was a lot of pressure uh on Benny Gance of the blue and white party to also bow out of the race he's also not polling anywhere near the threshold. And in fact, most

15:56 polls show him less than 1%. Um, and there are those who say it's a big waste of money because while he's not particularly popular at the moment, he has quite a big uh share of Knesset seats. And as we know, public um funds are given to parties according to their current Knesset seats. If he would have bowed out, then that money wouldn't have been spent, but now it it will be uh uh spent. So uh there there were calls for him to leave the race. Um but it seems like he's going to be running uh towards the end. Li could Netany specifically had a a series of personal appointments to the Leud lists. It was very interesting because his first priorities didn't accept for various of for various um reasons. Uh the second also didn't seem to be and only at the last minute he was able to fill up his um reserve spots on the list. So also speaks a little bit to where Natino standing is

16:59 at the moment. Although some uh rejected it because of they'd have to give up their American passport or business ties or or what have you. Um the interest what's starting to be a bit of an interesting angle in these elections considering the ultraorththodox enlistment issue is going to be front and center at least it is for now is the established uh ultraorththodox parties shas uh seems to be suffering at the polls that current um power is 11 seats and they're polling around seven um analysts have suggested that shas receives a a lot of its support, at least half, maybe more, maybe slightly less from non-ultra orthodox supporters, um, Safhadi supporters as it does, presents itself as a Safhi party and they are who and and these non-ultra orthodox supporters have been deserting uh, Shas, as the analysts suggest because of their uncompromising position on the enlistment law. Interestingly,

18:03 shots are trying to deal with this by putting out videos showing that, you know, uh, suddenly now they remember Israeli soldiers and they're traditional, not necessarily religious based. Um, they're trying very, very hard to try and attract them back. There's been even greater drama in the other ultra orthodox party, the Ashkanazi ultraorththodox party, which has always been an uneasy alliance of a kidic wing and a non-hasidic wing, which is ostensibly called the Lithuanian wing. The Lithuanian wing replaced its leadership, Mosha Gaffne, who is one of the longest standing u ultraorththodox politicians. In fact, any Israeli politician having served for I think almost or around four decades was replaced uh and also a couple of others.

18:51 Um they're trying to get in new leadership. There's uh discussion whether it means a more hardline or not. It seems to be with that it's new leader Yakov Asher who is more hardline. It seems um there. So they also understand that they are having a bit of a problem and they need a bit of refreshing. Uh but even more even more drama the kidic wing basically split into two. So you had two parties that now become three parties within the main party because some of the kiddic groups disagreed with others. So they basically are now three parties in one and it's a bit of a mess. Um the ultra orthodox uh world is certainly seeing for the first time cracks and creeks within within that and there is even a for the first time a viable perhaps depending who you ask um a a third orthodox ultraorththodox party that's trying to be a more liberal

19:53 version uh basically [clears throat] saying that if you're not learning full-time you should serve uh in the IDF which is a departure for the other two parties are saying they're saying that they want uh a general education in uh [clears throat] ultraorththodox educational institutions they want a pathway to a better chance of being able to have a profession etc etc so it is shaking things up a little bit that is a very important and interesting uh element to watch uh ahead of the elections but otherwise the blocks aren't really changing netting is still hovering around the low50s is interestingly enough analysis an analysis tonight said that while Netao of the 12 seats he's lost from his current power to how he's doing in the polls six moved over to the other block and six at the moment are staying at home this is uh a very interesting analysis we'll have to see whether that six still stays at home at the moment um

20:56 it's very easy to say I'm not voting but as elections come usually more and more people vote. Israel usually has a very high voting percentage. So it wouldn't surprise me if you know not all of that six gets out and vote but a significant part whether they will vote for Netany whether they will switch over could be key. If he could get a a substantial uh percentage of um that vote back into the liquid, it could change things in so much as uh not allowing the opposition block any chance of getting that 61 even perhaps uh with the support of the armed party which itself is in trouble since it added a Jewish Israeli to its list.

21:40 It's now hovering above the threshold. Um and if that goes under then really probably any chance of a coalition with the current opposition even relying even attempting to rely on uh Ram will be um extinguished. So we'll have to keep an eye on those things. Very interesting uh days ahead with that and we're going to go to questions. Uh Carrie Hillbran asks, "How do you see the revelation birates that the UAE allegedly warned Netanyah that kamasled invasion was imminent impacting on the upcoming elections?" Well, depends what you believe. If you're uh a supporter of the current government, especially if you're a supporter of Netanyahu, you'll see it as just another attempt from the left to discredit him. As we've seen recently, Netanyahu has really tried to push the agenda. If only they would have woken me up, things would have been different and basically blaming the intelligence, the army, the IDF, everyone except him. Interestingly enough, when he released his itinerary of that morning, it shows that he didn't

22:44 even have a first briefing with the head of the IDF until 3 or 4 hours later. So even the evidence that he tried to push out to show that he wasn't uh warned in time and he took other measures leaves a big gap and a lot of his uh opponents are trying to say well what did you do for those three or four hours people were dying in those three or four hours people were being kidnapped you know communities were being overrun you took your time even getting to the uh defense ministry to the situation room etc etc so It it will be a question uh coming up especially as we um commemorate October 7th uh once again you know in the coming weeks. Um um but at the moment it's probably split. If you're a supporter of the government, you won't believe this and you'll believe that this is just a madeup fake news by the left. And if you're an opponent, it will just be one more piece of evidence to show that Netanyahu failed and allowed the

23:48 massacre to happen. Um, Jose Montter blaming some European nations in your opinion could have some internal political problems. Um, could anybody consider that what the settlers are doing and territory does not belong to Israel is wrong? They really affect Israel's reputation. other countries. I'm not saying um that I I made it clear that there is settler violence. There's been an uptick in settler violence. Uh and certainly that is uh cause for concern and some nations have taken uh specific actions against uh those extremist uh settlers. But as I said, I don't see there there's no more than a few hundred of them. And that's uh out of a larger uh settler population of around half a million. So the question is why are you targeting half a million people for the actions of few hundred? I could give you countless examples of places and

24:51 communities where there are extremists but that doesn't necessar shouldn't necessarily tarnish uh the whole population. It's clear that this is not really about the uptick in settler violence. Um one could argue that the Israeli army is stretched. It's got, you know, it's frontline combat soldiers in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, manning the borders, the Jordan, Egypt. It just doesn't have the manpower to take on um this problem, which really is it's it's, you know, the Judea and Samaria is a small territory, but it's also a big territory and uh it just doesn't it simply doesn't have the manpower. Could the government be doing more?

25:30 Absolutely. Is this really about the uptick in settler violence? I don't think so. Um, Rashelle Mand asked, "Why can't Israel explain that area A is totally under the supervision of Israel and it's legal to build in that area?" Um, I'm not quite sure what the question is getting. Area A, according to Oslo Accords, is uh under uh Palestinian civilian and uh uh military control. Although Israel certainly when there's uh when there's a large wave of terrorism does enter Area A more frequently um to try and prevent uh terror attacks. Um it's not going to allow Israelis to build in area A.

26:14 That's something which hasn't done even under this government which has expanded settlements which has built uh some new settlements. Again, we're talking about, you know, tiny percentages, but still, um, there's been no, uh, building in area A, and it's certainly it's not going, if it didn't happen under this government, it's not going to happen under, uh, any future, uh, government. Um, Georgius Pilios asked does the reaction from Erdwan, Turkish officials and press regarding the agreement between Greece and Israel uh of Achilles shield that's a new agreement between Greece and uh Israel security agreement stem from the fear that their illegal activities would be monitored by the two countries in the Aian and the Eastern Mediterranean. Well, obviously the Turks are very worried about what's going on between not just Israel and Greece but also Israel, Greece and Cyprus and Israel and Cyprus. Um over the last uh uh you know few decades especially with the rise of Erdogan and uh his Islamist

27:18 party um there has been closer relation uh between Israel and its eastern Mediterranean allies. That's certainly cause of constonation uh by President Erdogan. Uh and uh I'm sure uh that the um the signing of the Achilles shield agreement between Greece and Israel is probably just ratcheted up another level. So it's not surprising that Erdogan and other Turkish uh officials, government officials will be extremely antagonistic towards this. Uh they see the um Eastern Mediterranean very much as their backyard and um it's it's certainly going to uh bother the Turks a Um, Jack Wesserman asks, "Is the Oz party in up running?" Um, I'm not 100% sure. I didn't see um I didn't see um she she's not passing the threshold. She's a long way away.

28:14 There was talk of her joining maybe with other parties that also weren't going to cross the threshold. I didn't see any um uh any notice of it, so I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem like she has too much of a a chance. Um na, one final question. Nancy Zuka asks, "Is it most of the settler violence reactive to Arab attacks?" I don't know about most. Some of it absolutely is. Uh but some of it, it seems that it's preemptive that they are going on the attack. uh some of the scenes um that have happened over uh the last few weeks certainly um are relatively unprecedented, you know, making a siege on an Arab town. It's very hard um to see if that's going to be a reaction to an Arab uh attack.

29:05 Certainly, there seems to be an uptick in violence by Israelis, by settlers um over the green line. Um, a lot of yes, some of it absolutely is uh in reaction to Arab attacks and obviously we know if you've ever read the report uh by the UN of what constitutes settler attacks and I think we've talked about this in the past, anything from visiting the Temple Mount, a a bus of kids going to visit Shilo, uh a traffic accident between an Israeli Palestinian, all sorts of things which are absolutely nothing to do with settler settle lers or settler violence has been documented as settler violence. Uh in fact according to the recent Ota report over 90 if you go through it and you pass it you can see 90% of what is considered settler violence is not settler violence but that being said it is clear that there is an uptick and it is um happening more frequently and it is uh to be condemned. One can argue whether

30:08 there's a will or way by this Israeli government. That's a fair question before the elections with all the IDF busy elsewhere but certainly there has been an uptick uh in the violence itself and with that I'd like to thank you for your questions and your participation and I look forward to seeing you next week to those who are celebrating wishing you a shout out to it's the Jewish new year on uh Saturday and Sunday and looking forward to seeing you next week.