Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:00 Welcome to another Israel Insider with me, Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle East on Israel's office. Um, as usual, I will talk for around 15 to 20 minutes on uh some of the uh uh pressing issues of the day and then uh I will open it up for your questions, please. As I always say, there's always one who doesn't do it. Uh please put your questions in the Q&A box at the bottom, not in the chat. There's always one or two in the chat and I am not able to get to it um because I don't look there. I only look in the Q&A. You can put your questions there at any point during my remarks or even during the questions themselves. Um so we're going to start today with what Treasury US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant called economic D-Day which ostensibly is supposed to end the war by other means. Uh we heard this week also Secretary of State Marco Rubio say that there will not be any further

1:04 uh military attacks on uh Iran. The most important thing from the quote that I saw is at the moment I I think he started it for now at the moment. So there was some equivocation there. Some analysts decided that was it. There's never going to be any any other attacks. I'm not one of those who believe that absolutely the door has completely closed. I think it's closed for now to try and calm the markets, especially the oil market, especially ahead of the midterm elections. Um, so the goal at this point is to try and calm things economically while continuing to have sort of the American boot on the Islamic regime's neck. And what they've decided to do is ramp up the economic sanctions, the economic warfare. Uh, and they've given an interesting warning to the world that any country or entity which um is involved in I think five or six major

2:08 Iranian uh industries will then be subject to sanctions and boycott uh from the US itself. It's a very heavy threat uh ammelterated slightly by uh the uncertainty exactly when the boycott uh itself or the sanctions itself comes in. Questions were asked when is it happening and why isn't immediate and uh Secretary Bessa basically answered you know you have to give um entities and countries time to um move elsewhere to get their product elsewhere. um which kind of gives it gives it a you know it takes away a certain amount of its teeth especially as um there was no specific time. Are we talking about days? Are we talking about weeks? Are we talking about months? What is expected is probably the sanctioning of a major entity in the coming days perhaps weeks that will send a chilling message to all those who think that um this is just uh just a statement without any teeth. uh

3:12 but we'll have to wait and see exactly how long this grace uh period lasts. Most importantly and we've seen before when when the US puts sanctions on countries especially Iran there seems to be waivers um Chinese China China has received uh waiverss in the past and China itself how much will they take this seriously because the rel the economic relationship with China is supreme that's the key to everything and we know that there's been um an important shadow economy from Iran where much of it seems to travel back and forth towards to China. We'll have to see how much of that is checked because the Iranians over the years as a result of the sanctions have become absolute experts in running a shadow economy trying to get through sanctions uh regimes uh etc etc. The question remains is for Israel what does this For quite a while uh since the end of militrations there has been the school of thought that the

4:15 best possible scenario realistic let's put it the best realistic possible scenario is a situation where there's no war no deal obviously the uh Israel air force still has a bank a very long bank of targets in Iran that it would like to be able to target but it understands until President Trump if and when President Trump decides military operations have resumed. Uh it's just going to have to remain just that, a bank of targets. But there was certainly great worry in the security establishment about the originalou um and the deal that seemed to be taking shape between Iran and the US. Uh at the moment that seems to be rent. It doesn't seem to even be in play. There's probably always some level of back level channels whether through Pakistan whether through Qatar or other intermediaries but at the moment it doesn't seem like either side are pushing for resumption of talks at least not openly or bilaterally uh at this point and so we're in a situation of no

5:20 war no deal which is probably preferable for many Israeli decision makers because obviously a deal would be very bad. It would give Iran an economic lifeline. It would allow them uh to maybe continue their ballistic weapons program, perhaps even some level of um Iranian enrichment. There was a big debate exactly what that would look like and how much and where it would take place, etc., etc. So, all these things made Israeli uh decision makers, uh security experts very nervous. So the fact that at this point in time there's no war no deal is something the Israelis can live with and while there is no war no deal the as I said the American boot remains on the Islamic regime's neck especially economically and there has been quite a number of intelligence analysts in Israel uh and other analysts who have uh suggested that there is a strong possibility that the because of severe um uh attacks. The Islamic regime might

6:27 not have that much time. We know that um gas stations across the country are struggling. Many ash shots. This is going to be a major challenge for the Islamic regime that was always that was already facing massive massive inflation, major economic challenges. And now on top of this really a whole another layer uh of uh economic sanctions and if these ones are fulfilled then it will be a major uh challenge to the ongoing stability one way or another of the uh Iranian uh regime. So we'll have to keep an eye on that. But certainly this is a a grave challenge. I wouldn't be surprised if in the coming days we start hearing again that the Iranians want some sort of a deal that you know back channels are becoming a little bit more frantic uh frantic I should say. Um so we'll have to wait and see uh exactly what's going on there. On a a related uh topic, um there seems to be in

7:33 I wouldn't say necessarily uh the conflict there coming to an end, but certainly Israel at this point in time is trying to uh get uh to a point, it's called the Ali Taher Ridge. It's an extremely important um uh strategic point in Lebanon held byah that basically looks down on many key roads, key infrastructure um and was held byah for you know decades and now Israel is very very close to uh conquering that and underneath it are manyah terrorists and even Iranian advisers from the revolutionary guards. Different estimates are between 20 and 60 depending who you ask. But the the crucial thing is at the moment they can't get out. Israel um took them by surprise. Basically after the most recent uh Israeli soldier was killed.

8:30 This gave them the excuse to um move forward quickly um because there was an understanding that neither side should really move from their positions. But one when whenah openly attacked uh uh idea of positions and actually killed a soldier that gave uh Israel the causes belly to go forward quickly uh and take this ridge. Um and we'll have to wait and see exactly what's going to happen. But what the plan seems to be is once they've got rid of um these Iranian uh terrorists underneath and taken that area which as I said is a majorbellah stronghold perhaps that is going to be as far advanced north as possible because this is very far advanced north.

9:20 This is the furthest position the IDF have taken in this round of uh fighting and then start not necessarily a retreat but again a more serious pilot scheme where they can see if the Lebanese forces can and will move into areas vacated by the IDF. with them of any sort of leftover Heisbella infrastructure and most importantly hold it and make sure that Hezbollah do not return um and basically take over that area. So it does uh it it it it it's also a very um important balancing act because again with Iran in in mind with the assessment that there are significant Iranian officials underneath the ridge um Israel does not want necessarily to do what it has done in the past and basically it can conquer the ridge and kill all those underneath in in very uh quick time. uh but that might uh escalate the situation. The

10:23 Iranians would see that as a direct attack, use that as an excuse to attack Israel. Israel would attack back and obviously that's something the US does not want to see. So at the moment the IDF is going slow and subtle. Not to say that they cannot and will not attack and kill the Hezbollah and Iranian advisers, but it will not be done uh in a way that could inflame the situation. And that's definitely something the Americans will not want. They do understand Israel's uh position here and they've given them quite a lot of leeway, especially after the killing of an IDF soldier. Um so we'll have to see how this works out, but it does seem that we're coming towards the final push um north for the IDF and we'll have to see what happens uh for them. uh closer to home, there's been quite a lot going on in the political field. We're now 13 days away from the um the official uh uh registration of all the party list.

11:24 Basically, every party that's going to run um not only do they have to register now in 13 days time, they have to register um the candidates for Knesset. And why this uh is important is because after that date parties then won't be able to merge lists uh join together partnerships etc etc um and there's a lot of parties entering almost every day and I'll explain why that this is uh important in a in a minute but basically the next 13 days will be rife with speculation who's going to join who who's you know seeking partnerships here there and everywhere this week we had the emergence not the biggest surprise of a party called AMA Israel the people of Israel by um a former senior IDF officer called Off Winter Off Winter for those who don't know became a controversial figure in Israel I think it was in 2013 2014 when there was an operation against Kamas in Gaza

12:28 he sent off his troops uh into war with what was considered at the time an overtly religious message involving the Shama prayer and say that you know our enemies are the enemies of God etc etc that was considered extremely controversial at the time and Alfir Winter who was a rising uh figure in the IDF um he himself thought that uh he would never get any higher rank and he never got any higher rank as a result of his religious uh convictions his ideological beliefs he's he's considered uh pretty right-wing um and he became a bit of a rallying figure for the right-wing religious um and someone who had been made you know sort of a martyr that because of his right-wing religious beliefs he was never able to progress to the upper echelons the highest echelons in the IDF so he was always a popular figure and yesterday he launched his party uh interestingly enough it's the only party um or serious party that at the moment is crossing the threshold

13:32 where every single member of the list is a brand new political figure. Uh there's no other list like it. There's all the established lists and all the newer lists are basically at the moment populated by people who've run before have held office etc etc. Opio Winter made a point of saying I don't want anybody who is tainted by office especially uh October uh 7th etc. So he's got a brand new list. It's an interesting list. Um but what the first polls have shown since he entered the race is actually he's hurting the net block because um his entrance into the race has pushed Patel Smatri who took quite a number of months to even get over the threshold has now been pushed back down uh below it partly in in great part because they are really uh aiming at the same territory. Both Smotri and Winter are looking at the same right-wing religious um uh population and offer Winter as I said is is new.

14:34 He's um as I said he's got a good reputation. Smodrich um you know has sat in the government many of his followers not happy about the fact that he allowed some of the things to do with the ultraorthodox community over the last government. So actually the emergence of Buffett Winter who is a should be a clear ally of the right-wing religious coalition actually hurts the right-wing religious because in passing the threshold he's pushed another party below and perhaps even some others further away from uh the the threshold. This has been this is becoming a a major problem for Netanyahu and this caused him to come out this week in a video that he released but basically he called on the public not to support any of these what he called splinter party satellite parties these smaller uh parties which are just going to eat your vote. uh some of them are not going to pass the threshold and so far the party of Gileadan the party of us hendo and kil troper and some others are not going to pass the threshold and

15:37 uh if you vote for one of these parties your your vote pretty much gets wasted there's others there's mosha fagel there's a few other parties and this really hurts Netao's chance of even getting closer not only closer to the 61 himself which at this point is highly unlikely but in preventing the opposition from themselves getting to 61 and they are getting closer and closer. Um, but he also has another uh problem netting is the personal relations between Offio Winter and Netao are not good. I've heard this from many insiders. Although ideologically, as I said, Offio Winter um would fit very nicely in a right-wing religious coalition. And behind the scenes they're trying to reassure Netanyahu that they would propose him for prime minister. He himself has not publicly said that. He said he would he is rightwing. He's religious. He supports right-wing religious coalition. He has not said those words that Netanyahu just wants to hear that he would only support a

16:40 Netanyao le coalition because that obviously could be a gamecher because he uh winter as well as taking votes from Smrich. He also is going to take some votes from right-wing figures in the opposition like Lieberman, like Bennett, perhaps some others. Um so if they can manage to um get him and Smatri over the line that could be significant and what and Netanyahu is going to try and do over the next 13 days remember that 13-day deadline is trying to put as many parties as possible together or alternatively trying to get as many parties out of the race. Obviously, he's happy if there are smaller satellite parties in the opposition, but in in his side of the spectrum where there seems to be quite a lot uh because there there's quite a lot of disappointment, disillusionment after the the so-called most right-wing government in history.

17:37 Um it's it's going to hurt him and uh so what he's trying to do is he's trying to put them together. At one point he even offered some of these players like Offer Winter a place a a a secured spot and we know Netanyahu has eight secured spots. Uh he was going to offer him and maybe one other of his people a secured spot offer winter said no and this week he uh started the campaign trail himself. So there's a lot going on. Netanyao apparently ostensively is also starting to think what he should do if he doesn't get that 61. And in fact, the other side doesn't get the 61. And he's starting to put together an idea of how to convince perhaps the leader of the opposition and perhaps the part the the leader of uh the party which receives the most votes which will almost certainly be Gaddy Eisenhot how to go into rotation leadership uh to ensure that he remains in the premiership. There's obviously a lot of challenges there. First of all, there's no love lost between them. Uh

18:40 Gaddy Eisenko also saw that when uh there was a rotation uh leadership between Netanyahu and Gance, I mean everybody pretty much knew that Gance would never sit a day in the prime minister's office. The only person who didn't seem to see that is Benny Gance himself. Um and this has happened on other occasions. Uh Netanyo doesn't have a good record. There's very little trust with NetO. So what has been proposed and there are a lot of drawbacks and challenges to it is perhaps an agreement whereby I think it's next year or the year after there's going to be elections for a new president. President Herzog will end his uh term and it's only one term for president and that could be the time that Netanyahu uh will uh agree to be president um in exchange for handing over the keys to uh the the the prime ministership. These are all things that have been discussed, but it just goes to show that Netao is highly concerned about his place in the

19:42 polls, about what they're showing, and uh these things are all going to be um going to be discussed. And as I said, the next 13 days are extremely crucial um because we'll get a better sense whether Netany does have a a path to victory and if not, what he has to do to ensure the other side doesn't have their path. And with that, I'm going to go to the questions. Harry Hillbran asks, "How do you assess the new political party of winter and Hadad will impact on the upcoming elections?" Well, it's not just winter and those are number one and two.

20:18 Yoshifad for those who don't know is an Arab Israeli Arab who's uh who's a proud Israeli proud Zionist who has done a lot in husbra Israel advocacy over the last few years become a very popular figure on the right and he is um number two and in fact um if they get in and he's in the government he could be the first uh Arab in uh Israel's security cabinet that's something that they excuse me trying to push for At the moment, they're polling six seats. Now, usually what happens in Israeli politics, a new there's a new party bump. Um, six seats is is not a massive bump. And if that's how he starts, it might be difficult for him um to continue that and and and rise.

21:06 Usually, that's the time. It's the first polling. Again, it could be in a few days when everyone understands what the party's about a little bit more. Could be they'll get a few more, but usually that's where you top out. Again, there there's plenty of exceptions to this rule in the past, but for a new party like Winter, usually that's where you top out as you come in. And six isn't the largest number. Um because some of the more established party will have bigger war chests. They'll have name and branding. They'll have incumbency in their favor as we get closer to the election. So, it's very hard to tell, but at the moment, they don't seem to be taking uh the campaign by storm, but we'll have to wait and see. Um, Bobby Martha, does Enut Wolf have any chance of crossing the threshold, but I haven't seen her in any polls. I know she is running. Um, I haven't heard too much about her since. Um, so at the moment, it doesn't seem like she has any chance.

22:02 Um, so you know it if if I see u if I see her in any polling um then then I can speak to that in the future. Um okay Bobby Ms. is the reason BBU won't retire to fear prosecution megalomania or sincere belief that only he has the skill set to deal with Israel's challenges? Well that's quite a few accusations. I believe that there's a certain amount of your last reason in letting know himself that I think he he and the people around him really do believe that he is the only one capable of dealing with Israel's challenges and that's very much the message that they're putting out. That's again we're going back a couple of elections where uh Netanyahu's major campaign video was the babysitter that he's the only one who could look after our children, look after our future, keep us safe. We're very much going back into that territory. Um it at the moment doesn't seem to be working uh because Liuroda is certainly not gaining at this point, but

23:06 uh Netanyahu is an excellent campaigner, so maybe he'll hit on something uh better and and and start clawing some of his loss support uh back. Um okay, there's Okay, this is something I didn't uh relate to, but it's it's an important I think we spoke about it last week. Kenya's Israel's air strikes on Syria's Abu Dhar um airport runway and storage facility elicited a strong rebuke from US ambassador to Turkey Tom Bark. He implied that Israel's actions could have ignited a war between the two countries. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think Bark has taken Turkey side? Well, he has taken Turkeykey's side and there's been quite a bit of push back and Bark himself has even apologized for comments he made about the Golan, not necessarily to do with this, but he seemed to go too far this week when he um talked about the occupied Golan and as we know that is against uh President Trump's recognition of Israel sovereignty over the Golan. Um so it does seem like he might have

24:08 overstepped. Uh there is a feeling in Israel that yes absolutely ambassador Bark is basically taking Turkeykey's side in a lot of this um and exactly where what that means and where that stands in the Trump administration but at the moment uh we haven't seen anything open uh coming out from President Trump uh for an and a guest but certainly Israel does not see in Ambassador Bark a particularly uh friendly uh uh character at all. Um okay, there's a question about uh Palestinian security PA security forces set up a checkpoint in a sea where they detained um an IDF uh reserveist.

25:12 escalation because according to tracking he never actually went into areas A under uh Palestinian security control. remained in area C which is under full Israel control and it's certainly a worrying development that the Palestinian Authority could you know arrest or detain an Israeli certainly an Israeli IDF uh reserve soldier uh during this time. So that's certainly a major uh issue and I'm sure uh is being investigated. We have to wait and see uh what the results are. Um, and I think the final point from Barbie Rambo says, um, the warning about an uprising Judea and Samaria. Um, and wouldn't that be a failure by Israel to assert who is in charge? Well, I I'm not sure if it if this question gets to the whole sort of settler violence issue. Um while many times in the past settle violence has been exaggerated uh the statistics includes everything from peaceful visits

26:15 uh uh praying or or just being on the temple mount, school visits, traffic accidents, etc., etc. It's clear that um the ante has been upped in recent weeks and there has been some severe acts of violence by Israelis in Judea and Samaria. uh Israel is worried about this not just because of the international diplomatic condemnation but also because of the the IDF needs to be in complete control and at the moment it can't be everywhere. The IDF is stretched as we know it's in Syria, it's in Lebanon, it's in Gaza, it's you know it's it's watching the Jordanian the Egyptian border. So there are certainly less troops and less uh highquality troops that are now patrolling Judea and Samaria and they certainly don't have the requisite uh troops to be able to patrol all the territories and prevent uh violence by Israelis against Palestines. There are some uh uh examples which certainly look bad in the international stage of uh settlers

27:17 violently uh removing um Palestines from their homes and then preventing from their return. Uh this is something as I said that not just the IDF has warned about but the political echelon is very aware of but we also we all have to take into consideration. I'm not justifying. I'm just explaining. We are in election season. Uh we saw this week uh a religious Zionist uh a member of Knesset Sukkot who decided to take it on himself and go into some uh Palestinian villages and try and demolish monuments uh to terrorist individuals. These are things which if they should be taken down and they should if they are memorializing glorifying terrorists, they should be taken down by the IDF. But as is clear, Sukkot decided this was something that could only do him and his party good during the election season, which some call silly season. Um but we know that not only was this uh condemned from across the political spectrum even from

28:20 within the party the head of the Knesset faction of the religious Zionist basically said that these actions are like uh you know a suicide pact on the religious Zionist party which is as I said already below the threshold they've been dealt quite a blow by offer winter and these sort of activities which are just for show if this was of really great concern turned to uh member of Knesset Sukot. He had the last four years to do it. The fact he's doing it only a few weeks before a couple of months before elections shows really what the larger motivation was. Um so unfortunately you know everything has to be seen through the prism of internal Israeli politics of elections not excusing not justifying but it's important to understand that at the moment uh a right-wing government is going to have to look as rightwing as possible and that will have uh a bearing on many of the actions the Israeli government will take over the next couple of months because as I said they are flailing in the polls there is no

29:23 great path to return uh as a coalition as a whole. And um so all of the parties, they're trying desperately to gain as many right-wing uh supporters as possible. And this will fortunately or unfortunately, however you look at it, have a major bearing on uh actions of the government and other members of the coalition in the weeks and months ahead. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your contribution, your questions, and I look forward to seeing you next week. Good night from Israel.