Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Hello and good evening from Israel um to another episode of Israel Inc with me Ashley Perry advisor to Middle East forum Israel's office as usual we will uh I I'll open remarks about 15 15 to 20 minutes and then leave uh some time after that for your questions. Uh please feel free to put them in the Q&A box not in the chat box. If they're in the chat box, there is a chance I will not see them. So, if you want to ask me a question, uh please put them in the Q&A.

0:36 You can put them during my remarks, at the end of the remarks, even during the question session itself. Um and uh there's at least from Israel's point of view, there's really only one place to start and that's I would say unprecedented, but certainly relatively unique attack in Syria. Um, for those who don't know, uh, Israel attacked a base, Abu Al Dur, which is near Aleppo in the north of Syria, um, for about a day. Israel didn't really take any responsibility for it. And then Prime Minister Meterro came out and explained Israel's rationale. And the rationale was that uh there has been a long-standing uh concern ever since um the new Syrian regime that Turkey would use that as an opportunity. is we know Turkey is a very strong uh backer of uh the new Syrian leadership uh aligned on you know Sunni even

1:42 extremist Muslim Brotherhood uh basis uh far more amunable to Turkey uh than the Assad regime and Israel has been worried by an increasingly better coast Turkey that they would use this relationship to get more of a foothold in Turkey. And I say more of a foothold because as we know Turkey is already occupying a large strength of the north of the country ostensively to uh to fight terrorists. It's more about sort of the Kurdish areas. As we know, Turks have long worried about Kurdish independence movements. And while they have taken a very strong hand on domestic Kurdish independent movements, they're also worried about others. And there is a large Kurdish population.

2:34 uh, I already see someone is writing in the chat. Please do not write in the chat. Please write in the Q&A. Uh, and please make it a question rather than a comment. Um uh yeah. So so you know they've had more of a foothold in uh occupying uh parts of uh northern Syria. But Israel's greatest worry is that uh the Turkish military which is a very important and powerful military part of NATO etc. uh could set up bases uh around uh the country and from there use them if not necessarily as a stepping stone to attack Israel. That's not necessarily something that's going to happen today or tomorrow, maybe even next year, but certainly a threat. And one thing that Israel has learned since October 7th, is do not take any threats um you know, too easily. And uh you know, Israel has decided to get on the front foot ever since October 7th, which caught it on the back foot and trying to get ahead of threats before they become real threats.

3:37 And even at the beginning of the uh Ashara regime, there were some attacks by the Israel Air Force on bases that they thought that Turkey could use um to set up base there. Uh whenever it got wind that something was happening that Turkish officials had uh had visitors to the base, uh there were quite a number that were then attacked by Israel. That hasn't happened in a while. Um, so yesterday came a little bit out of the blue, but Syria have confirmed that Turkish officials were at the base the day before the attack. That has been uh confirmed. Uh, and Israel took the step that it believes is necessary. the chief of staff today visited the troops in in in southern Syria where Israel maintains a presence now on the other side of the Golan uh and basically said that Israel will uh deal with any threat before it becomes a threat mentioning terrorist groups but also other threats basically you know implicitly

4:40 um acknowledging that um that this was a uh attack on what they perceive as a threat. Um, as far as the US, there were conflicting messages. The first message came out with uh the um the US ambassador to Turkey, who's al also the US envoy to um to Syria, Tom Barack, who's been a bit of a critic of Israel and some say is very close to the Erdogan government. He basically condemned the attack and said it's uh it could lead to an escalation, etc., etc. Um but what we do know is that the uh Trump administration was pre-warned. How much time? We don't know. But what we do know is that um they from our sources that uh you know they did find Israel's intelligence credible. They did understand the nature of the threat to Israel and they did understand Israel's reason whether they liked it or not, whether they thought that perhaps other avenues could have

5:43 been used. Um that uh is what some senior White House officials have uh stated as far as uh US President uh Donald Trump himself. He was asked uh quite straightforwardly by an Israeli journalist, what is your reaction to the attack? And he refused uh to basically address them at all. Certainly there was no condemnation or even anything close to that. And as we know, President Trump has condoned Israel attacks whether in in Lebanon or elsewhere. Uh so we know that, you know, he wouldn't be adverse enough. So the fact that he didn't take this opportunity uh shows that there is certainly a measure of understanding for Israel's actions uh in Turkey. Uh the US is however uh frustrated by Israel's refusal to activate deconliction mechanisms. the deconlection me mechanism is basically where Syrians and Israelis would sit together and discuss threats and issues before they become an

6:46 issue. And if Israel feels the need to act, it would first of all try and do that through diplomatic means bringing it up. Uh Israel did apparently try using channels. the head of the Mossad reportedly spoke with um senior Syrian officials to raise the issue but obviously did not find uh the right answer which led to uh the military activity but the active and official channels uh that are supposed to be set up for deconliction have not been set up and that certainly displeases the US and Syria also would like uh that to happen.

7:21 The deconliction uh model uh or concept is basically modeled to a certain extent on what Israel used to have under the Assad Assad regime with Russia. As we know, Russia basically had a very very strong military presence throughout uh Syria and basically with the benefactors of the Syrian regime at the time and Israel not being an enemy of Russia or vice versa. They tried to come up with a deconliction mechanism to make sure that there was no direct attacks on each other. Russia understood that Israel had to take um you know take seriously the threat fisbellah weapons uh moving from Syria from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. So there was an understanding and there was a mechanism obviously that went when Assad fell and the Russians largely left and now it seems that perhaps the Syrians at least and even the US want to replicate that perhaps even with with Turkey at the moment the

8:26 likelihood of Israel and Turkey uh you know meeting so officially and coming up with some sort of deconliction mechanism is probably unlikely. The war of words uh is getting stronger by the day. Prime Minister Netanyahu openly uh you know I I don't know if I would call them an enemy but certainly a foe at this point. And the Syrians as we know from the last few [clears throat] years see an opportunity to attack Israel. At the moment neither side want a direct um attack, a war. These are two of the the most powerful armies in the region and it wouldn't be in anyone's interest for any direct attacks, but there is a growing sense in Israel that it might just be a matter of time. Turkey uh clearly want to get a foothold um in Syria beyond what they have in the northern Kurdish region. Uh, Israel sees that as a major threat, not just because they will be there, but because Israel knows that Turkey has technologies, military technologies that

9:28 the Syrians don't, and that they could threaten Israel's um Israel proper or certainly Israel's presence. Um, and that is of great great concern, probably one of the gravest concerns at the moment to Israel's security and military uh apparatus. Um so we'll have to see what happens there. But certainly um you know the temperature is rising. Turkey is not Lebanon. Turkey is not Syria has a very strong army. Even air force and uh Israel wants to have as much as possible uh the freedom of action over Syria. And by having Turkish troops on the ground um with with everything that that would entail would certainly uh uh be extremely problematic. uh for uh for Israel. And uh the message in fact was even officially relayed by Prime Minister Netanyahu that he hopes the message um to Syria uh was understood that Turkey uh Turkeykey's presence will be

10:31 unwelcome. Uh so we'll have to keep an eye on that. Um I'm going to move over to local domestic politics. As as as I'm sure you know, there are elections in just over two months. Uh lots going on at the moment. Um it's uh up until recently as we know there's the current coalition which is Netanyahu and the two religious right-wing parties and the two ultraorththodox parties supposedly the most right-wing government in Israel's history. And then in opposition are all the other parties. Some of them like Avid Dolman arguably Natani Bennett are also right-wing but they're in the opposition for various reasons. So at the moment the two blocks if we look at the two blocks and usually we don't utilities who say that they won't neither side say they will sit with them and they won't sit with either side. Mansurbas let's put Mansour buses Ram who was in the coalition but not in the government in the previous government then Naftali

11:34 Bennett um yeah in the pit government um but at the moment the blocks uh neither block seems to be able to get that key 61 the uh previous government the current opposition is much closer it's hovering between the 58 and 60 every now and again you'll see a poll which says 61 but the current government never seems to really pull more than 52. Quite a what away from that magical 61 number. So when people talk about the blocks, that's what they talk about. What has happened in the last week or so is the emergence of what is started to be known as the third block. Uh new parties, not necessarily new politicians, but new parties which are not in the current government obviously and they're not in the current opposition and they don't consider themselves in either. They have problems with both their problems with uh let's say both of them are are right of center or or rightwing and they have problems with uh Yay Golan of the Democrats party which is considered far

12:36 left and they also have problems with the occlanors party. So they don't really sit optimally in either block at the moment and could well be the kingmakers and I'm talking about two parties at the moment. They could be joined by others. uh the first party that we uh that we heard about they weren't necessarily the first ones to launch but the first ones to uh you know start being talked about was Yas Hendo a former communications minister and city troper um I think it was culture minister in the in the last in the previous government. Uh both of them a center right of Santi Hend more right or troper who sat with Benny Gance for for quite a while. Um and basically uh they their main issue at this point is what they call you know I think they call themselves the Zionist party or something like that. um the Zionist Home Party where basically they they tried to represent that that large sector of Israeli society that served the Milimnik

13:40 Kim as they call themselves uh which was the US Hendle's party until he joined um which basically those who who have served on the front lines for the last three years and feel that they've been let down by the government in terms of looking after them uh making sure they didn't have to go again and again uh while other publics or communities in Israel didn't serve at all or far less numbers. So there's a c there's a ground swell of hanging there. Um so that's that's their main issue that they haven't really taken too many positions.

14:14 Uh beyond that then you have uh another party which is too wellknownly could formerly could let's call them figures of Giladan and Julie. Gilad Odan is a relative was was a popular minister in the nikood. Then he went off to be US ambassador Israel ambassador to the UN and the US and he's quite a popular figure. Um and he decided not to go back to the nikood. He was joined by Uristein who was a long-standing member of the nikud who was blamed by Natino and the ultraorththodox parties for for not achieving um a law that would allow the vast majority of ultraorththodox not to serve in the army. He stood fast when other members of the coal coalition including Nasini, Ariadian, Golov and Gaffne were trying to put pressure to to pass a law in the end they weren't able to pass any law even when they got the far more amunable Bois Bismouth. Uh so

15:17 Julie Edstein was um sent home from his position as chairman very a very poor position chairman of the foreign affairs and defense um committee in Mckesset and eventually left the party completely and he is joined by Gil Doddan. both sides will uh add more uh uh people to their list. Uh but at the moment being tottering on the brink of whether they as we know to pass into the Knesset, you need to pass a threshold of four part four seats. If you only get three seats, they basically don't exist and and those votes get scrapped. Both parties have passed the threshold in some votes in excuse me, in some polls. uh the most recent ones uh are more problematic for them, but we'll have to wait and see if either of them can get momentum. There is a potential new face. Well, not potential anymore because they've already started releasing videos of a new list by uh very popular

16:20 especially on the right and the right-wing religious of of winter very senior idea general who spoke his mind and was considered uh that's one of the reasons why he why he never reached the high echelons of the idea because he was considered too ideological, too religious, too right-wing. Um so he has uh quite a following. Um he has more than hinted that he's going to um basically launch next week. Uh he his uh his list will contain all new faces. He has made a a point of ensuring that there are no uh current politicians on [clears throat] his list. So I have to wait and see. of Winter has said or at least it's been uh heavily rumored that he could bring more seats to the Netanyahu rightwing government. He certainly ideologically more happy to sit there. Um and that could be key for Netar first of all to ensure that the opposition will not reach that 61 but

17:24 maybe even if he can bring in some momentum and start moving that block towards the 60 could change could tip the whole balance of the elections. We'll have to uh wait and see on on um you know this week we had uh the liquid primaries a very important event the liquid um most parties these days don't have primaries uh liquid still has primaries where basically every member of the liquid can vote for a list of candidates um it it's not as simple as that could likes to pretend that this is the most democratic party but it's it's is heavily influenced by very powerful figures. Um if Netanyahu wants people out, he's usually listened to and there were two major figures, I mean more than that, but two major figures that Netanyahu wanted out. One was Tally Got who's a bit of a fire brand with considered the Israeli Marjgery Green.

18:24 Uh comes out with all these sort of conspiracies according to internal liquid polls. Abig on the list could lose than he could up to two seats on her own. So it was very important for him to get rid of her, push her down the list into an unrealistic spot. The second one was more of a revenge. Uh it came out in the last week or so that uh economy minister and previously very popular liquid member near Barat uh after October 7th at least the months uh preceding um the kamas massacre and the beginning of the war near near Bakat led a an attempted coup against Netanyang to try and remove him from his position.

19:07 Took a lot of steps. One thing we should remember is near Bakat is an extremely wealthy personally wealthy individual. Um so that gives him a lot of influence. He tried to bring in other ministers, other senior liquor officials. Eventually it got back to Netanyao who was able to see it off. But what we learned from it is a number of things. First of all, Netanyahu is still the indisputed leader and if he wants someone pushed down the list, even if they're as previously popular as near Bakat, as he did with Julie Edelstein last time when Julie Edstein openly tried to run against Net Bi gets what he wants and here it was it was pure revenge and also he doesn't want Bart sitting uh prominently once again uh plotting Metanyara's downfall if by you know whatever the results may be after the election but what it also tells us is again something I've said for a while that one of the reasons why there won't be replacement for Netany so soon is

20:12 because there's no one figure that they can all rally around and what we've learned from behind the scenes um nuving by bar bar and what one of the chief reasons it failed is because many of the senior protagonist and that they could all see themselves as um BB's successor. There was not one figure that they could all rally around even when they believed and agreed that Netanyahu should go. They were quite happy to let the whole thing fall apart as long as one of their rivals didn't get it. And that's something that you can argue is by design or default. Some have said that that's a major part of Netting Yo's uh political games to ensure there's no one uh senior figure uh that can topple him and that's certainly what happened.

20:58 What we did see out of the primaries is really alik with nothing new. Netanya tried to paint it as renewal could renew but the top 20 there's only one real new face amal cohen who defected from Ottoma bank's party um and Metaro gets I I believe it's eight um reserve spots out of their first 30. He's using it some of them to pay back loyalties. He's giving one to Gdans who rejoined the liquid, another toe Katz who's a very important uh maneuver let's say in liquid uh internal politics and also Israel Katz who's a very loyal and current defense minister. So there's really not that much new than he could bi was able to revenge on one and ensure another uh bit of an albatross in the party was removed. So, Natalin are still very much in control that they could, but it hasn't really done too much to improve

22:01 the image according to the most recent poll. So, there's still a lot to go. As I said, new parties can change the map. Um, but at the moment, neither of the blocks seem to have a path to a coalition as things stand now. So, with that, I'm going to go to questions. Marvelous does. I've read recently in the B is regain gaining momentum. Please describe the trajectory of his campaign. Well, not really. You know, Israeli polls will always show a movement of this that. So, there's nothing to talk about because you can't basically show the same thing again. Yeah, there's not much momentum. Some poll will show one seat, two seats, but he's not really getting too much momentum. We've seen that in his open attacks in the last few days on his major rival in the opposition. Gudy Eisen Gudy Eisenot has been a lot more let's say compromising on the ultraorththodox issue where he said that yes some people who are learning should be able to ultra orthodox students who are learning

23:04 should continue learning and not go to the army. Uh he's been attacked by Bennett saying there shouldn't be such things. Uh we're basically not moving the dial. you know, you're you're basically just according to the status quo. This is what Bennett has been saying. So, he's mostly trying to attack Daddy Eisenko because Daddy Eisen stemmed his momentum uh when he joined the race officially and Bennett is trying to claw back as many seats or votes as possible from Daddy Isac. But at the moment, not really able to do uh too much and if anything Isaac is gaining the momentum.

23:41 Um, Jose Montter asks, I have two questions. First one, what do you think about the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey? It's an interesting development, certainly one that Israel is keeping a very close eye on. Uh, but interestingly, the first test of this defense agreement uh when uh the Houthi rebels in Yemen have repeatedly attacked Saudi Arabia, we haven't seen anything from Pakistan and Turkey. So again, we we we we hear about these defense agreements in the our world, the Muslim world, and they're more about uh you know, agreements on paper when it comes to it. It doesn't really seem that much has changed, but certainly these are uh these are um you know, affairs that certainly Israel is keeping a close eye on. Um and okay, Reena Pers, could you clarify the relationship Kurdish issue to the attack on Syrian by Israel? Uh this particular attack was not really related to the Kurdish issue. It was um related to the

24:45 Turkish issue. Uh Israel is um Israel's forces are certainly closer to the Jews than the Kurds. There was a time where Israel was uh trying to defend the Kurds as much as possible, but it's a much hall because it's across uh Syria whereas the Jews are pretty close to the border and as we know there is a very strong and vibrant Jewish community in Israel that advocates for Israel's uh defense of their brethren in in Syria.

25:21 the second what is your opinion about the announcement but by minister Beng about the need to execute 30 to 40 people from every day how can a minister say that it is destroying Israel's position between other countries I agree completely I I didn't hear the comment um but I have read about it um and it it is clearly a very a very problematic um statement one that was rightly condemned um And you know, it's not an excuse, but unfortunately the reality is we're now in, you know, quote unquote what some countries call silly season, election season, where people leaders will just say anything to get a few more votes.

26:00 He's not a person who has the power to dictate policy in Gaza. He knows it very well, but he knows by taking this outrageous uh position. Perhaps he can attract a few more votes. Clearly, it is a very problematic um uh position, outrageous uh one that has been condemned in Israel and uh across the world. Um could you clarify that Syria didn't doesn't miss an opportunity to attack Israel? I don't remember saying that. Uh Syria hasn't attacked Israel. Maybe maybe you're thinking Turkey. And again, it's it's more verbal attacks. If we are referring to Turkey, Syria hasn't really got too much of a an armed force uh to attack Israel openly. And um so you must you might have misheard me. Um what do you Eric Solo asked, "What do you think of the UAE suspending all trade, commercial exchange, and financial

27:03 transactions with Iran?" So apparently it's quite a big deal because quite a lot of um trade uh Iranian imports actually come from the UAE. UAE have long since u been extremely disappointed with Iran. Iran has openly attacked the UAE I think even as in in recent days continues to attack uh it and UAE is using all its tools economic diplomatic and other to ensure that Iran cannot continue attacking it although Iran will continue attacking it. So it just makes sense that why should the UAE continue uh as normal when Iran is clearly not acting as normal and is attacking it uh day by day.

27:48 Um, Barbie Rambo, what do you say regarding the claim? I think about Abas, I'm assuming you're saying uh Murbas, is he a kingmaker or a killer clown? Um, I mean, he's not really a king. An interesting development is someone from Yeshid, I can't remember his name, ostensibly a centrist uh Jewish Israeli um MK leftid and is apparently negotiating to join Ram, which is you know an Islamist party. It's an Islamist, you know, even though it sat in Israeli government, it's an Islamist party. It's not Palestinian nationalist. It's not socialist. It's a Islamist party.

28:34 They've certainly moved under Manuel Abbas, they certainly moved quite a quite a a while and and when he was in the coalition, some of the statements he made about Israel, about Israel as the nation state to the Jewish people are things that no Arab Muslim leader has said much since the beginning of the state. So Mu Abbas is trying to uh gain acceptance as much as possible. I don't think at this point he's a kingmaker. He has decided he's not going to run with the other two Arab parties. He is going to run separately as of now. Perhaps he's trying to remake the party as a sort of Jewish Arab collaboration. We've seen these parties in the past. It'll be interested to see what happens there. If um they do somehow change the nature of the party, add some more moderate faces.

29:26 Perhaps in the end he could be a kingmaker. Uh again, uh assuming he passes the uh the threshold. Eric Zova asks, I think this will have to be last question. What is the status of the Israeli study? What happened on I think I'll refer to the official investigation of what happened on October 7th. Well, basically this current government was not able to pass its own law that it wanted uh not for an official mutual uh committee of investigation but one which was more dictated by the current coalition. They were not able to pass that. Um so it will certainly be on the agenda.

30:16 Interestingly, the attorney general who's no lover of this government uh basically said today that any uh vote or any uh state investigation will have to wait uh till the next government. So basically at the moment there is no investigation of what happened the failures surrounding October 7th uh whether it's going to be a state commission whether it's going to be a government commission that will all now have to wait uh to after the formation of the next government. With that I'd like to thank you for your participation for your questions and I look forward to seeing you next week. Good night for