Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:00 Israelis on the whole don't like to take risks on something new. In Israel, people feel that decision, political decisions are life and death. The devil you know is preferable to the devil you don't know. That's something Netanyahu has played into very well. [music] So here in Israel, we are now 13 days away from uh elections that some have called the most important in a lifetime. um maybe even more. Um and certainly with such high stakes, things are heating up here in Israel and the big um question is will there be an attack uh before during the elections um because the rhetoric around it has certainly grown in recent days. Um, we've heard Netanyahu uh speak about a possible attack from Judah and Samaria, the West Bank, uh, saying that the Palestinian

1:02 Authority has threatened or intends to use um weapons on Israelis. In other words, possible terror attack. Uh um defense minister Katz was on the Lebanese border um today threatening that if Iran should attack should not get involved because if it does it's going to lose even more territory than it currently has. And then you obviously have the spectre of a possible Iranian attack uh in the background. Uh there's been a lot of talk about that. Um, and the question that a lot of people are asking is, is it campaign rhetoric or is there something to it or perhaps a bit of both, which is probably where I would stand on it. There is always a threat from Iran and certainly over the last few months there have been many elements within the Iranian regime that have called uh for an attack on Israel. Uh I don't think Israel will uh preempt um uh because there would need to be some

2:06 justification for why now and why not in 3 weeks or four weeks after the elections. Um but there is that threat and what kind of uh has tilted a little bit towards there is a very real threat a number of factors. First of all, we we had today as well as the political elements, we also had the uh some leading military elements um led by IDF chief of staff Aal Zamir who also said that some of our enemies are are preparing for attacks perhaps before the elections. Uh perhaps they want to uh tilt the elections one way or another.

2:47 Um and we also have uh reports that uh uh President Trump and Netao have been in discussions especially about uh the Iranian threat and depending on who you believe uh one seems to be leading the other. One report said that um US officials got the impression that Netany wanted to launch an attack before the elections and others that say that Trump has asked Netanyo uh to launch a solo um so he wouldn't get blamed for it uh during the uh uh American midterms. Um a phone call obviously happened. Again, I think it would be unlikely if there was a strike. It wouldn't be unprecedented.

3:30 A lot of people have used as an example in 1981 there was the attack on the Osirak nuclear um facility in Iraq uh where Israel took out Saddam Hussein's uh nuclear weapons uh capability and that was 3 weeks before the elections which Manakiman won and at the time Shiman Perez his opponent accused him of doing this for electoral reasons and today we do see uh the opposition also accusing NetanyOV drumming the beat for war um you know ahead of elections um but the it he's got to um sort of walk a a bit of a a tight rope because while it's clear that the threat exists from all different um quarters including Kamasbah the Houthis perhaps um and certainly Iran Um, Netanyahu on the one hand is saying, "Well, look what I did. I

4:32 defeated all of our enemies." And on the other hand, he's got to say, "Well, there's still a threat." And one can understand that there's a tension between those two messages. Um, because, you know, if he says that we won all the war, we won all our battles, then where is why is there still a threat? And if he says there's still a threat, the opposition and mo many critics will come and say, well, you clearly didn't uh provide the decisive and total victories that you promised us. So what's interesting in in in the last day is Netanyahu is trying to give a number to it. He's trying to say we won the war and I've heard him say 90% or we've destroyed our enemy's capabilities 90%.

5:10 And today he used a figure of 60%. Again, these are well-considered numbers. This is a well-considered tactic because 90% means well there's no real threat if we defeated them 90%. So now he he seems to have walked it back to 60% which means okay we still we still gave them quite a hit and the majority of their capability has been uh been struck but it's clear that the threat still remains. So it is uh very much the talk of the town. Um the threats people are wondering whether there will be an Iranian missile attack or perhaps even an Israeli attack on Iran before the elections. And that is proving a very important element one way or another for uh Prime Minister Netanyao as we've spoken uh previously for Netanyao to really gain um a lot of his uh voters who have left him really has to return to the security uh agenda

6:12 because security is where he stands on solid ground. when the issue was ultraorththodox enlistment that's very shaky ground and even an Achilles heel for Netanyao and that was starting to return to the agenda last week with massive demonstrations by ultraorththodox against enlistment against um the arrest of uh those who don't enlist but now quite clearly the security issue has returned again one can debate whether it was forced for political reasons or it's a reality that's been utilized for political reasons. Um, obviously I have not read any uh of the information that our intelligence or IDF uh chiefs are reading, but it's clear that there is a threat. There's always been a threat. Uh there was a threat last month, there'll be a threat next month. The question is what has changed, if anything, and what can be done uh about it. But it's certainly uh a good place for Netanyo.

7:10 Although there are certainly uh other areas where um the opposition are starting to hit back a little bit. Um not necessarily the parties themselves. First of all, we had a very interesting uh week with Off Winters Israel party. It's clear for some time that he sees Offer Winter as a threat Netanyo even though he's considered a right-wing very right-wing candidate and has said that he sees himself uh clearly uh identifiably as part of the right-wing block. It's clear Netany doesn't trust him. Uh so he's gone on the attack mostly by claiming that winter will not pass pass the electoral threshold which means that they're going to throw away tens of thousands of right-wing votes which could tip the scale scales away from Netanyahu's coalition towards the opposition. Um but there's probably more there. There is certain certainly personal enmity between the two. There's quite a history if you look into it. Um

8:13 but we saw it taken up a notch um this week with and these are tactics that Netanyahu and the Li could have used before. They basically put posters outside of all the members of Afir Winter's party uh outside uh the bus stops where his children where their children go to school. uh sometimes putting pressure if they're religious on local rabbis and really really uh uh you know making them face a relentless program a relentless campaign again we saw this when uh with the so-cal change government of Bennett Laid we saw a relentless campaign similar to that against members of Bennett's camp um and in the end they managed to peel off just enough uh to fail that government but the campaign against not just the candidates themselves but their spouses and their children is very reminiscent to what we've seen in the last week against offen winters people and they had a level of success number eight on the list uh dropped out um it's not the

9:21 most surprising because number eight according to any poll is not going to sit in the Knesset they're polling around four maximum five sometimes only three which is below the threshold So number eight is a relatively easy win nonetheless. Uh it is something that was jumped on clearly well planned in advance by Netanyahu and the L could and congratulating the number eight uh candidate for leaving the race and saying he showed responsibility um all the other members of the list should show likewise responsibility. But it's clear as he himself said that he put his family first. What what that means is his family felt threatened. his family felt isolated. His wife certainly felt isolated and that's what put a lot of pressure again. Um [clears throat] this is a religious person whose rabbi also uh was apparently uh involved. So we see really really heating up a relentless campaign. uh off winter seems to be the target at this point of Netting's full um eye and we'll have to see if they

10:26 manage to get anyone else uh out of the race but as of now Winter said he's running to the end and I'm sure he will unless something major uh changes other developments which are certainly not uh conducive to uh uh letting Yo's campaign but have been more run by the media although of course uh driven uh by the opposition agenda. The first is the question of what was um an Egyptian the Egyptian intelligence chief doing in Israel a few weeks I think it was two weeks before October 7th he was on the ground for 59 minutes everybody's talking about this what does it mean who did he meet with um and this has also become a bit a source of dispute because whereas Netanyahu has claimed I didn't even know he was here and I demand to know who he met with and made the mistake of saying the prime minister never meets with intelligent uh chiefs and I have never met with the Egyptian intelligence chief and uh a few

11:30 reporters then suddenly released a photo of him meeting with this exact intelligence uh chief in 2021. So that was a bit of a known goal but again it goes back to this issue. What did Netany know? That's what the opposition was stressed. What did the intelligence chiefs know? That is what Netanyo's camp will stress. And this whole Egyptian plane that flew in, was on the ground for no more than 59 minutes, apparently didn't even leave uh Bengaluran airport, uh has become again one of those sticking points with both both are using to try and deflain the other. Uh speaking of which uh one of the big uh sort of full guys for October 7th um was Ron Embar the head of the Shimet the Shabbach. Um and Netanyahu is trying to push as much as possible. He has in the last few weeks as much blame on Ron Embar. Uh he's a relatively easy target, not the most popular Shinet uh head there's ever been. And he basically

12:32 blames Ronbar for not waking him up, for ignoring the signals. um of pre October 7th and if if Netanyahu would have been woken up he would have cancelled Nova he would have prepared better than this and interestingly enough Ronin bar has now launched a multi-million dollar defamation suit against Netino saying uh basically going against everything that Netino said. There's many things that running by is accused of which have nothing to do with him. For example, whether to cancel the uh Nova um festival was clearly not within the Shimbet's realm. they can certainly recommend and Ronin Bal's gone on the attack even with this uh with this case basically saying that he warned Netanyo multiple times that there was a threat from Kamas and he recommended all sorts of actions including uh targeted assassination against Kamas leaders including Yakya Sinwa who in the end led the October 7th massacre. So there's a

13:36 real war of words. Again, depending where you sit on uh in in the political spectrum, you'll either believe Ronin Bar on this or at least you'll believe that there's too much smoke uh without fire or if you believe uh BB, it's uh Ronin Bar lying again, he's not taking uh etc etc. Another uh hal to NetO's campaign is the release today of conversations that uh one of BB's closest advisers Yonatan or Jonathan Urik who is one of his major advisers campaign advisor communications adviser and he has been part of this so-called Qatar gate which is um basically the scandal of people within circle not just meeting with Qatari officials but even working to improve their PR within Israel as paid jobs.

14:35 Well, now uh today they released uh an interview with police where basically Urik admitted that he met with uh probably one of the top two or three most powerful people in Qatar in Europe twice um to basically help um Qataris get a better image in Israel or at least try and get them to back off a little bit. Um and obviously that's very controversial because Qatar is seen by many in Israel as an enemy state as the one who financed and housed uh Hamas and runs uh delegitimization campaigns through Al Jazzer and many others. So this is another problem uh for Netao.

15:17 Finally, before I go to questions, there's um the big issue which I talked about before with Offer Winter's party, but there's another led by US Hendel and really these two smaller parties which are let's say flirting with the um with the uh electoral threshold um are really where this election is going to be won or lost. If one of the parties passes or both of the parties pass or neither of the parties pass really changes the whole electoral map because we're talking about two, three, four seat swings. And that could be whether the opposition gets a majority or something closer to a majority or whether it's got no real hope of getting to a majority to a certain extent with the coalition though it's probably less likely. But again, this is why Netanyahu is going after Winter because doesn't trust him.

16:10 uh US Hendle as I said his party is polling generally a little bit lower but some polls have shown it crossing the threshold so really that's uh where that's really key at this point uh to where the elections can be won and lost because the blocks don't seem to be moving too much there seems there is sometimes movement within the blocks but not too much uh between so the question that a lot of people asking is how is it after the failures of October 7th um Israelis are basically it could be a situation where there's no new parties or at least in the case of Yashan a new party but basically under old heads um and one would think you know usually in uh countries that have suffered a disaster like that you would want um all new leadership and that's what many Israelis talked about for the last uh four years but it really does demonstrate something not just about incumbency and the advantages of incumbency as as far as setting the agenda as far budgets etc etc but also to a certain

17:13 extent the conservative nature of Israeli politics. Israelis on the whole don't like to take risks on something new because uh as opposed to politics around the world where we could be talking about raising taxes or some other issue in Israel people feel that decision political decisions are life and death and you know it's it's it's the devil you know is preferable to the devil you don't know do you want to take a risk on someone who's never held the office to make those decisions that's something Netanyahu has played into very well understanding the Israeli psyche on this And again, one would if if you said, you know, in the months after October 7th, um, or even a year after October 7th, even two years, that pretty much the vast majority, if not all of the existing parties will be running, except for Gance, who kind of dropped out. Um, he's he's still running, but he's really not polling at all. Well, um all of the others are going to be in the next Knesset and most of the previous members of Knesset will uh return. Uh

18:17 people would have thought that that was a crazy idea after October 7th and the failures and and everything like that, but it really just goes to show that Israelis really do vote uh on security issues. They really do believe it's life or death. And do you want to take a chance on something new? um or do you want to just return to the establishment to the established parties knowing what you're going to get with them and hoping that they will make the right decisions uh in the future. So it it'll be interesting to see but at the moment we could well be seeing no new parties.

18:49 Perhaps we'll see one maybe even two but all of the established parties all of the leaders none of the leaders are new really. All of them have been in politics for a while. uh there is no new leader as I said apart from possibly off winter who will lead a party into these elections and subsequently uh into the Knesseta. So uh very interesting developments uh with less than two weeks to go uh certainly things are heating up uh on this end. And with that I'm going to go to the questions. Um Eric Bernie asks with Trump holding off any military action till after the midterms doesn't that give Hamas a reason to attack now? are we've been hearing quite a lot that Hamas um are looking for opportunities, but they probably don't have the capability certainly of an October 7th style attack and maybe not even a massive rocket attack. So, they can and they have certainly been tempting uh IDF soldiers on on the yellow line, sending people across, sending kids across the yellow

19:51 line to see how they would react. And there could be attempts to uh target IDF soldiers, perhaps even kidnap. Um but it probably won't be a major attack. I don't think they have that capability, but again, you know, Israeli establishment didn't think they have the capability before October 7th. So, who am I to disagree with that? But I'm not quite sure um if Trump holding off a military action really gives Kamas that res at the moment. They seem to be consolidating. They know that they are under pressure that they are supposed to demilitarize at one point, but the attention is off them and they're they're kind of using that. So, I'm not sure they want the attention returned uh at this point. Um Kiri Ismile asks, "Do you think that Israel will help Saudi Arabia to face the threat of Iran and its ally in Yemen? Do you think that Israel is ready to be the leader of the Middle East region?" Well, first of all, Israel has offered help to Saudi Arabia

20:54 in the form of intelligence, not necessarily boots on the ground. Um, the Saudis asked the Americans and at the moment the Americans haven't really helped too much, but there was an understanding that the Israelis will help. It's not been spoken about openly. Um, but it is there and it's it's not the the the largest help there. There certainly not, as I said, no boots on the ground, no aircraft in the sky. Um, but certainly there's there's an interest there and Israel will always come to the aid of a a fellow, you know, pragmatic uh Sunni uh neighbor. And whether Israel is ready to be the leader of the Middle East region, it's hard to say exactly what that means. It will probably never be the recognized leader of the region because it's not a Muslim or an Arab state. Um, but certainly um more and more nations in the region behind the scenes are are starting to understand Israel's role. Certainly um if it's an ally it will come to your aid even when it's not an official ally in the case of Saudi Arabia will come to your aid more than so-called official

21:56 allies have we seen with the what was it called the Mecca deal with um Turkey and Pakistan um so I think definitely things are changing in the region but mostly behind the scenes um Robert asks do Israelis think America is low on munitions is the reason why Trump wants Israel to attack Iran. Um I mean there's reports that America are low on munitions. I have no indication whether that's true or not. They said the same thing about Israel. It could be true. I I have no particular uh information on that. Um but I'm not sure again whether Donald Trump does want Israel to attack. There are reports that he he does, but I think that might have been manufactured from the Israeli side to look, you know, to say, well, the president wants us to attack. Maybe that's a justification. Um, but I think that after the Israeli elections, after the midterms, uh, we might see a return to the Iranian, uh, issue. Um Barack Corkmaz be sold out running in

23:03 bar today on a ex message to expect the security establishment to support bar. Well, I'm sure they are supportive especially those in the shimet who worked with uh Ronin bar. We saw former head of um the shimp certainly pestigate bivy but he is in the Eisenkot Yash party. Um certainly in the uh uh uh intelligence establishment there is an acceptance that they got it wrong but they certainly don't like to be left left out to dry as Netanyao is doing uh primarily for political reasons again not to say that there's no grain of truth there's a massive grain of truth that the security and intelligence uh establishment messed up but saying that the political level did not and takes no responsibility which are still yet to take responsibility openly and unequivocally as others did um is something which certainly leaves a bad taste in the mouth of many senior security officials. Uh Jack Wessman

24:06 asks, "Why is the Israeli media so against Netanyao?" Well, it's interesting. There's media which is extremely supportive of Netanyao and there's other media which is against um Netino has for example channel 14 to a lesser extent I24 and some others which are a lot more supportive of him and then you have channel 12 which is less than channel 13 which is extremely less. Interestingly NetO did um uh interview today on channel 11 where probably it's considered middle of the road where he will certainly get a fair say. It's not necessarily against that but certainly not uh in his you know in his corner like some of the others. So the mainstream media that that's watched by most Israelis you know channel 12 has the largest market share is certainly critical of Netanyo but then they have people like Amit Sega who are extremely supportive and some say he is even uh akin to Netanyo's spokesperson. they call him Nettingo's chauffar which basically he parrots what

25:08 Nettingo's talking points uh claim. So it's a bit of a mixed bag on on on you know looking at it completely. Yes, the majority of the mainstream media uh is not supportive of Netanyahu they would argue that it's on substantive reasons. Um but certainly they're not giving him uh an easy time but nor is he giving them an easy time. He he's worked um to lessen their market share and he tried to split um previous channels uh even talk of closing down channel 11. Um so I can imagine why there are are certainly a little bit bitter about that. Um Perry is again asked will Israel allow the Palestinian Authority to conduct their parliamentary and presidential elections in GS in the West Bank. Well it's nothing to do with Israel. Um PA chairman Mahmud Abbas said a number of months ago he will hold uh elections local elections um and that was one of the provisos for that um number of western states that recognized a

26:13 Palestinian state. One of the provisos was that the Palestinians hold elections. Mahm Abas said he will hold elections and then cancelled them uh last week. He didn't blame Israel. didn't say we're not able to hold it because what changed the day before. Um, interestingly, not a single one of these European countries which made a a proviso for recognition has since uh walked that back. So, it's clear that elections could be held, imperfect though they may be. Um, but it's clear again, what is it now? We're in the 22nd year of a 4-year term, that Mahmud Abbas has no interest uh to hold elections, not parliamentary, not local, and certainly not uh presidential.

27:00 And um Robert Alles asks, "Is it also true that some of the IDF soldiers who are surveying Gaza warned Israeli officials that there was there was abnormal activity in Gaza shortly before uh October 7th?" Yes. Uh at all levels. There were the surveillance uh girls who as we know famously were murdered and kidnapped. Um they were uh noticing things well in advance and they even joked. You can now see WhatsApp groups uh where they joked you know is today the day of the invasion. Obviously no one expected what actually did happen but certainly they had um relayed their concerns about abnormal activity about kamas training for a big operation. Um and in fact uh the person who one of the people who apparently didn't send it up further up uh uh the you know the chain of command was his name was actually released last week and it's Yakov Amidor a former national security adviser to Netanyahu his son was one of those um

28:03 but again there's there's all sorts of levels um where IDF soldiers saw something but it was dismissed uh largely because of what Israelis called the conceptia the conception um that kamas were contained something that Netanyahu himself said many times that they didn't have the capability um or that uh the bigger threat was or Iran all of these conceptions basically um ensured that all these warnings uh were ignored um and that's pretty much where where a lot of um where where we understand today. Obviously uh again a major issue in the elections is whether a a a state investigation commission uh that was held before many or after many other failures after the yonipur war after the second Lebanon war uh but neto is has fought for the last four years to

29:06 make sure that didn't happen. If and when that happens, perhaps we can truly understand what happened on October 7th. Who knew what, when, how, and what should have been done about it. Um, unfortunately, that's not going to happen before the elections. Um, so now it really is he said this, they said that, I'm accusing that person, they're accusing back, and largely depending where you sit, uh, is who you believe. Um, so we're not going to get the truth before these elections, but hopefully we'll get the truth at some point in the future. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your questions. Sorry I didn't get to all of them, and I look forward to seeing you next week. Have a good