Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Good evening and welcome to Israel Insider with me Ashley Perry uh advisor to Israel's Middle East um Middle East formed Israel office. Um as usual I'll be talking for around 15 20 minutes and then leave it open for questions. Please I say this every week please put your questions in the Q&A button at the bottom not in the chat button. anyone who puts in the chat button, there's a very strong likelihood I will not see it. So, please feel free to ask any questions uh before, during, and after my opening remarks, and I will try and get to as many as possible. Um, so, as we've seen in recent days, there's been another uptick in an an escalation in in Iran. It doesn't seem as much as from the outside it seems that President Trump wants to kind of uh move away from Iran even allowing some of the big warships to uh to dock. I think it's uh

1:06 was in Thailand today um where some of the seammen who had been at sea for hundreds of days were given leave. Um, it's clear, you know, that the fact that President Trump returned or has asked diplomats in the region to return, it's clear he at this point in time, he wants to try and get back to some sort of normality. Wants to see um the price of oil go down as much as possible for the uh midterms. But it just doesn't seem like the Iranians want to play ball with that. They keep on trying to poke the US in the eye. And uh you know this week they tried to launch some new mines into the street of Hormuz. They tried to attack tankers. Um and the Americans uh launched a response as as big as it's been in weeks. Um taking out various military um installations uh not just near the Strait of Homos but actually across Iran, even into western uh Iran. Um and they also tried to take

2:13 out or they did take out uh some of the Iranian tankers in a new policy which has been described as tanker for a tanker. If uh a tanker that's trying to navigate the straight of Homus is attacked then the Americans will then try and take out one of uh Iran's uh tankers. It's still relatively contained and constrained. Um but one miscalculation from either side um could obviously raise the flames uh much further. There have been more attacks on American bases in the region uh getting closer to Israel even as far as Jordan.

2:53 And it's really the the big question hanging in the air for many in Israel is will we be the recipient of another barrage of attacks of missiles? Um could it happen? And the assessment here in the security apparatus is that there's a big disagreement in the Iranian decision-making echelons whether to attack Israel or not. There are those who say do not attack Israel because as they have witnessed themselves, Israel has a a quite remarkable abilities um to attack Iran to their intelligence capabilities are extremely good and um it's clear that Israel, the Israel Air Force has been on standby for quite a while. As I've said quite a few times in recent weeks, there is a bank of targets that many in the IIAF are just itching to get to. Um, and this is known by that camp, but it's known by everybody, but that's the argument that that particular camp. And there are those who say no.

3:56 Um, Israel should get what's coming to them. This is a war against foreign, you know, colonialization, etc., and we fight for Palestine and all the rhetoric we're used to from this extremist Islamic Republic and especially the the real extremists even within the decision-making process. You know, we always talk about moderates and extremists. Well, you know, moderates are just a little bit more pragmatic than the religious fanatics, let's put it that way. So, there there is an understanding in the Israeli intelligence and security apparatus that there are different voices saying different things. Um, Israel is still very much on standby and we heard defense minister Katz say today at a conference, Israel will respond with great force. Um, and also that there is a concern um that Iran could take advantage of the upcoming uh Jewish holidays. Um, as of next Friday night, the new year of Shashana begins and that goes into a series of Jewish holidays.

5:00 Kipo and then Sukkot. Um so it's a good few weeks and as we know at the end of Sukkot is Sukhhatra which is the day where you know the massacre of October 7th was launched. It was specifically launched on um the Jewish holiday because it was felt that that was where you know Israelis will be most distracted. We know from history that also um you know the Yumipur war started on Yum Kipur. So there is a uh there is a history here and um uh defense minister Katz laid out that there is a concern. I don't I don't know if it's more than that. Maybe it is, but there is a concern that once again Israel's enemies will try and use the Jewish holidays um as an excuse to uh attack attack it. Um so we'll see what happens there. President Trump reacted to all of this sort of discussion and concern in Israel and saying that Israel really shouldn't uh worry about it. He's got

6:03 Israel's back. Um but it's clear that there is a worry. It's clear that um there'll be a heightened sense leading up to and on the holidays themselves. Um especially since October 7th um not as many soldiers are given leave on the Jewish holidays. you know, on October 7th on Simar. Many of the bases, especially around Gaza, were left uh with quite a number of soldiers, you know, at home. It was a it was a Saturday. It was a Shabbat. It was a it was a holiday, the final holiday of this holiday season. And we know also from intelligence that um it was a long-standing policy of Hamas to attack uh Israel on one of the Jewish holidays because originally um Pesak Passover which is in April around April usually had actually been the original date and then was put off for various reasons. So they chose another Jewish holiday. So for pragmatic reasons that they know that that's when Israelis will be a little bit more distracted but also uh

7:05 according to many in the Israeli government for religious reasons because of a hatred for Jews and Jewish festivals and Jewish tradition. Um that's why Israel's enemies keep on coming back to those sort of uh dates. Um, moving closer to home in Gaza, there was quite an extraordinary operation uh in the last couple of days when special forces um Israeli uh special forces led by Shimet and the army basically went into the middle of Gaza City and kidnapped in broad daylight a very very fascinating and daring uh raid to capture Mo al-Aid who is a very senior Hamas official and is head of internal security. And of course, internal security means that basically he runs the Gaza strip. He's the one that Garins fear. He's the one who makes sure that people are loyal to Gaza uh to kamas and anyone who isn't will be dealt with very severely. A very hated man by the average Gazin, especially those who have

8:08 who who don't like the kamas repressive uh regime. And uh it really was quite a historic event. the fact that Israel was able to go not into Tokarum, not into Ramala, not into uh Bethlehem and some of the other cities in Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, where is Israeli soldiers have had I wouldn't say freedom of action, but certainly if they believe that there is a terrorist about to commit an attack or a senior terrorist that they could arrest, kidnap, whatever you want to call it, you know, these things happen relatively regularly, but this is certainly the first time This has happened where they went into the Gaza city, the most populated area in poor daylight, uh, and basically kidnapped one of the most senior Kamas generals off the street. It was a very embarrassing moment for Hamas. At first, they denied it. Then they said that Israel wasn't able to get who they wanted, so they took someone else. And then when it was clear with the release of photos that they actually got exactly who they meant. Um you know again they

9:14 just decided to take another attack. But this is a big blow for Hamas. Not just because, as I said, the the Israeli forces were able to come in broad daylight in the heart of Gaza, in the heart of Kamas controlled Gaza and take one of their senior commanders, but also uh many Israeli security and intelligence sources are saying he will be an absolute treasure trove of information about uh Hamas, what it's doing, what its plans are, how it's running the the strip with an iron fist, etc. So this is a very big blow for Hamas and uh and a very big win uh for Israel this week. Um moving closer to home internal politics uh there's a key date coming up next week. I think it's Tuesday where it's the final day to submit um party lists uh for the Knesset. And while that might be seem like a relatively bureaucratic event, it's actually a very important one whatever happens after that day, you

10:18 can't change the lists. Any partnerships you make between parties, between lists has to happen uh before that day or on that day. And um we've seen in the last few days uh quite a lot of jockeying, quite a lot of negotiations between parties. There's been quite a lot of talk from both sides of the political spectrum, especially from the right-wing ruling Kurdish and especially from Prime Minister Netanyahu himself who's who's tried to rally against what he calls satellite parties. There's been a number of right-wing parties um that aren't expected to cross the electoral threshold or are in danger of not crossing it. and he knows that if he has any chance of winning these elections, he needs every single right-wing vote to count. Uh, and he's basically been calling out um many of those who he believes are not partnering up when they should be. Specifically, there was quite a pylon on Itar Bengavir, the um the leader of uh party because it was felt

11:22 that he should um reunite with Batal. The two of them ran in the last elections together and they they did quite well at the moment. Batalos Matri was you know sort of skirting the threshold. Uh sometimes under sometimes over and but if they join together it would ensure that you know there'll be no wasted votes in that particular direction. Uh it being basically resisted all this pressure and it's saying at at this point at least he's running on his own. Um and Batalosmatri in in the end had to turn to other avenues and turned to Mosha Fagelin Zahood party um probably not such a household name outside of Israel but in Israel he's run quite many times at first he was trying to run within the liquid had won Knesset he actually sat as a member of Knesset for liquid but never really wanted him there and forced him out and since then he's tried to run

12:25 under the Zoo party. There was an election a few ago where he was polling even as high as eight or nine at one point and then basically dropped to under the threshold when it mattered. Um but the two of them together Moshafin Hood and the Salmatric's uh religious Zionist party are expected to cross the threshold at least as of today. So we'll have to keep an eye on that. But there's certainly a lot of um talks going on as we speak. Um a big question mark especially as far as Prime Minister Netanyahu is what are the intentions of Offer Winter? Offer Winter is a bit of a dark horse for Netanyahu. One he has publicly backed him. Um he is the two are not necessarily close. uh there is a certain animosity uh between the two and there's certainly a lack of trust. Um person or another party which is also flirting with the electoral threshold uh

13:28 in the most recent poll tonight is expected to get four which is the absolute minimum. If you don't reach four then you don't get any because the um the electoral threshold is 3.25. So that means the minimum seats you can have is four. If you don't reach 3.25 25 all your votes are then uh thrown away. So there is a bit of panic uh in the liquid about all these uh smaller parties and they themselves are trying to see who they can join with. Winter has a bit of a problem because he has um said that he will not uh join with anybody who is tainted by October 7th or Israeli politics. He only wants to join with um he only wanted on his list new politicians, people who've never sat in the Knesset or the government and he said he will only join with parties that have never done so as well, which leads him leaves him with very very few options. So it does seem either he's going to run on his own or maybe be joined by a significantly smaller party.

14:29 But there's talk of sort of mega parties or not mega parties but mega small parties Dan Edelstein Hendor um and um Hilly tropa maybe Shan Kascal there's lots and lots of parties which are really anything from half a percent. Bennett Gunce is between half a percent and 1% if we remember. He was the the king of Israeli politics not too long ago and and now he barely gets, you know, on the radar. Uh and there's quite a few other smaller parties and a lot of jockeying, a lot of negotiations, maybe parties which are skirting the threshold will just need that extra percent or two from a very small party to get over the line. doesn't always work that way because you could lose support by doing that, especially if they're not natural allies. There's been talk of Giladan joining with Benigans. Ideologically, they're a little bit far away. Um, but perhaps, you know, at the moment where neither of them are uh are expected to

15:32 get more than a percent, maybe it's the only uh chance that they can get. One other major thing that's been on the agenda this week is that sort of one could argue conspiracy theories, betrayal, etc., etc. It it all came up when Sar Netany, the wife of the prime minister, was invited for an interview on channel 14. Channel 14 is very much home tough for the Netany. They're extremely extremely supportive of the Netanyas and she would never appear on any other news channel. And during it she was asked about Y Golan uh the leader of the Democrats party and she made quite an astounding uh statement uh which was basically how is it she asked the question uh rather than making the statement how is it that Yer Golan was dressed and ready I should actually preface this by saying that it's known that Yer Golan on the day of October 7th uh basically when he heard about what was going on he got dressed in his army

16:34 clothes I mean he's an an older man, but of a senior general or former senior general. I'm not sure if he still does reserves, but he basically got into his uniform and went down and tried to uh protect the people and uh was was very involved on that day helping Israelis who were caught up in the the massacre. But Sarin Netinaro asked a question which uh which basically how is it that he knew what was going on uh even before the prime minister. Basically, her suggestion was that he had some inside information and he already knew what was happening way before anyone else. Um, and the prime minister was not woken up even before Y Golan obviously knew about it. This speaks to a lot of um conspiracies, let's put it that way, in Israel that a the army knew about October 7th and basically allowed it to happen uh to embarrass Netanyahu. This is something which is certainly

17:37 prevalent on the extreme right. Um and and obviously Yay Golan uh being, you know, pretty far left on the political map is is is obviously an easy figure to blame. There is no evidence that he knew anything. In fact, he only went down an hour and a half after the attack started. That's all on record. But what it does raise is really that whole issue of who know who knew what and when. And Netanyahu himself was forced to um say on camera that he doesn't believe that there was a conspiracy. He doesn't believe that there was betrayal, but he does believe that there was terrible Um and they didn't wake him up and it was a major major failure. This is the central question. Well, not the central question, it's a major question of who to blame for October 7th. Netanyao claims, "If I would have been woken up at three in the morning when the discussions first came because of uh some intelligence, they were reading certain signs coming out of Gaza, I

18:40 would have immediately ordered a full-on attack, etc., etc., uh, and it was just the army who decided not to. He by leaving it a little bit open, it leaves it open to the the sort of betrayal narrative or the conspiracy narrative. And what this does, and this is the whole debate this week, first of all, was was this all scripted? Did Sarah Net know exactly what she was going to say? It was during a very softball interview. Usually, these things are very very highly tightly organized. I find it hard to believe that this was just something that Sarin decided to bring up just off the cuff. Um, they wouldn't have allowed her to interview without this being carefully crafted. So what it does is it really raises an issue that divides the right from the left or at least some of the supporters and some of the other parties that Netanyahu is not to blame.

19:39 It's the army is to blame. This is a narrative that Netanyahu himself talks about regularly and this is very important for him going into the election especially an election very soon after the anniversary of October 7 where Israel Israelis will be talking about this again. who really is to blame? Obviously, those who are are critical of Netanyahu will say, well, it's not just October 7th. It's the fact that, you know, Qatari suitcases were allowed into uh uh Gaza basically to go to Kamas. This was the prime minister's policy. Um the idea, you know, Netanyahu himself said only a few months before that kamas are deterred and my main focus is on Iran. There are many many signs which the anti-NO camp would point to and say okay maybe it is true that you weren't woken up before 6:30 but it was completely your policy as prime minister which led to October 7th. His argument will be uh no that's not true.

20:38 If I would have been woken up I would have had a tough response. The fact is on October 7th it did take quite a while for the army to understand what's going on and react and there's a lot of questions that need to be asked and a lot of neutrals will say okay I'm not saying either narrative is 100% but let's at least have a commission of inquiry that's not going to happen before the elections um and that would clear up a lot of uh these issues but obviously that in itself is political and there's a major major debate about that so the fact is that uh you know as as as one political analyst said you know in in campaigns especially in Israel it's not really important what's been said it's what's been talked about and it seems to be clear that for Netanyahu this seems to be a comfortable area or let's say more comfortable because for for quite a few weeks and I think I've talked about this that he's been clamoring for an agenda clamoring for something that uh can work for him on a plane that's comfortable for him and he hasn't really found it you the

21:41 conscription issue is certainly a weak spot for him, but the question of who's to blame for October 7th and the fact that the that the generals didn't wake him up in time and the timeline certainly does look it doesn't look great for the army. Um, and so if we're just talking about the morning itself, then NetO certainly has a leg to stand on. But if the opposition widen it and start talking about okay the morning is one thing what happened before the weeks before the months before that is far more uncomfortable for net. So the focus on the morning what happened what didn't happen is has been decided at least that it's it's it's a it's a good issue it's a good agenda and plays very much into net's base. So, we'll have to see how long this lasts, what legs it has. Um, and uh, as I said, all eyes at this point are on Tuesday where the lists have to be presented, and then we'll have a bit more of an idea of who's running, who's partnering with who, and

22:44 then uh, we'll get a better idea of the blocks, uh, the opposition block, the coalition block, and even the third block. And with that, I'm going to go to some questions. Uh Carrie Helibbran asks, "Winter stated that as a precondition to join the government coalition, universal draft legislation must first be passed as this is a non-starter mishas and united to Judaism. Is there possibility that his party would consider joining a government headed by Eisenhot?" Interestingly, uh Winter said he would not um uh join a government headed by Bennett Leeman because they sat with Mahm Abbas. Um Eisen Cot um was not head of a party. He didn't say Eisen Cot. Um it's it it's an interesting one because he hasn't just said I want that to be on the agenda. He said I will only join a government when they pass that legislation. Uh and as we know the day after elections or at least when election results are are officially recorded the Knesset is in session. But

23:47 it doesn't really work until a government um has been founded. So it'd be extremely unusual, maybe even unprecedented for a law of such gravity, of such importance will be passed before even a government has been formed because obviously you need coalitions, you need coalition whip, you need to work out who's going to vote, who's not going to. up. Uh so it's a very interesting uh point or position that he's taken and it would certainly be unprecedented uh on that. So it's certainly something Shass United Judaism would not support. Again, what does that mean that the the devil's in the details universal draft legislation? He has never said to the best of my knowledge that every sing um person in Israel has to be drafted.

24:36 Perhaps there could be some leeway. Perhaps there could be some uh people who are left to uh uh learn uh Torah. Um in fact, he's even negotiating with a party, a new ultraorththodox party, which is making some headway, which basically says that those who are learning full-time should continue, but all those who are not should go to the army. That's going quite far for society, but not necessarily for the rest of society. and the fact that he's negotiating with them probably shows that there is some leeway um to um his Um Robert Davis asked, "Do you think that the IDF will start to plan other kidnapping, arrest key Hamas persons rather than bombing those sites to kill key enemies?" Well, it's all a matter of um uh you know what what's available and what's possible. At the end of the day, if to do the operation today, you did put uh at risk many many Israeli soldiers. Um they decided that it was worth the risk and in fact in the end

25:38 not a single Israeli soldier was injured. So it was a very well-run operation, a successful operation. Um, and I think it will just depend um if they can get in without too many risks to Israeli soldiers or even uh you know other factors then perhaps they'll do it more but other times you know sometimes you get information someone is somewhere and they could move soon. So by the time you you know organize an operation that that target could have moved on. But what it does show is capability and it shows the idea of has a longer arm than perhaps kamas thought and this will certainly send shivers down the spy of many senior kamas people and they'll probably take even stronger measures to uh to keep themselves um secreted away in future.

26:37 Barack Corkm asked, "Do you expect things to go up in the territories before the Israeli elections?" I think is there going [clears throat] to be an uptick in violence? Well, it seems to be an uptick in violence. There has been a a certain level of uh uh you know, settler violence against Palestinians and also Palestinians against Israelis. Um it does serve the purpose of some in the Israeli government. the more right-wing elements will certainly not come down too hard on settlers which may be their if they themselves are not necessarily going to vote for them. Uh many of their supporters would want a softer approach to uh settlers who are involved in violence. So um probably before the elections we're not going to see too many large scale operations against um uh you know violent settlers.

27:29 Um but probably um you know to show their metal uh there might be more operations against uh Palestinian terrorists and Palestinian violence. Um because at the moment the ones with the keys is is a right-wing government. Uh I think we have time for one more question. Um, Barbie Rambo, doesn't this prove that Gaza will be a terrorism base until the Hamas uh gardens are relocated and due to return to settle Gaza? Um, I mean that that's a very loaded question. Um I can talk about it from a political point of view that yes it is that issue of uh voluntary immigration relocation whatever you want to call it is coming up again in the elections offer winters has has approached the issue I think Israel cats of the liquid has also promising to facilitate as much as possible but if they haven't been able

28:31 to do it in 3 years um they probably won't be able to do it in another 3 years. That's that's the truth of it. And regardless of what people promise um you know, that doesn't mean there's actual viable plan for it. Um for all those who say that there's going to be some mass relocation have to answer a simple question where they going to go. Um there is a will in Israel and in fact amongst gens according to Isra want to relocate. Now, that might be an exaggeration. We don't know where he got that number from, but we do know it is a very high number. Um, and the fact is Israel would be happy if they left, but there's nowhere for them to go. The world will not open their doors for them. Egypt has built the biggest uh sort of barrier, far bigger than anything Israel's ever built uh to make sure that no GS step foot on Egyptian territory. And so then you the only way uh gardens can get out is by air. Uh

29:35 there have been a number of um airlifts if you want to call it or just you know uh they they've gone down to a nearby Israeli airport um and basically traveled aboard. But we're talking about small groups and it's usually ouched in terms of medical reasons etc etc. But the the tens of thousands the hundreds of thousands etc. are not going anywhere. Um, and there will be no uh uh you know return to settlement. It's it's not my opinion. I just I just don't see it happening regardless of how many people talk about it. There's been no stomach for it even from this the most right-wing government there ever was and probably ever will be. There doesn't seem to be too much of a path for this government to return.

30:23 One never knows. up. Um so if this government couldn't remove uh gardens or allow them to uh to relocate or immigrate themselves or to build um Israeli settlements in Gaza, then no government will do it. So I I don't see uh that as a as a viable option despite some election rhetoric around the issue. And with that, I would like to thank you again for your questions and your time and uh look forward to seeing you next week and have a good night from MSRA.