Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Hello, good evening from Israel and welcome to another Israel Insider with me, Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle East forum Israel office. We we have this annual sort of show uh at the UN where leaders come in around the world, the General Assembly, it's the sort of opening of the General Assembly. And while many have called uh the United Nations the theater of the absurd in the past um in the last uh day or so it's actually become something closer to the theater of the obsessed. It really just does seem that Israel is just the main talking point and sometimes even the only foreign talking point. Obviously every leader that comes in will talk about what they see their challenges are and maybe they'll talk about global challenges but in many occasions the only country specific challenges or criticisms that they lay um are against Israel. Uh we've seen it we've always seen in the past against

1:05 you know totalitarian regimes. We see obviously Mahmud Abbas would always attack Israel. the Iranians will always attack Israel, a few others, but this year it's really the litany of even western uh leaders. Um and it just it just became, you know, from the obsessed to the absurd to the outright lies. Um the most famous of which which caused a lot of constonation and rightly so uh in Israel was French president Emanuel Mau who made uh various assertions about Israel. Uh the most remarkable one uh not necessarily about Israel but related to Israel obviously um that many picked up on is that Hamas was never active in the West Bank. That's a direct quote uh from his speech uh which is absolutely remarkable because it's simply not true.

1:59 I mean, Hamas have basically been active in Judea, Samaria, the West Bank for decades, perpetrating dozens, if not over a hundred terrorist attacks, uh, killing hundreds of um, and wounding thousands more. In fact, only before Yong Kipur, uh, ironically, a French, a Jew, Israeli French citizen was murdered as he went, uh, to a poor mikvah near his home. Uh, basically just looking to dip in some water and he was murdered by Kamas related murderer. So, it's kind of sadly ironic that a French citizen should be the latest victim of an organization that the French president said isn't even active. Um, has never been active uh in in in that particular area. As one can imagine, there was tremendous push back uh from Israeli politicians and others. And obviously,

3:03 the French foreign ministry had to walk it back saying he didn't use the word never active. He said never governed. First of all, even that is not necessarily true. While officially and ostensibly the um Palestinian Authority uh is in charge, um there are many areas which are run by Hamas uh you know de facto during many mayers who are uh under Kamas influence, let's put it that way, many areas and Kamas clearly control many parts um and govern even many parts of Judea and Samaria in the West Bank. So we just we just see how easy it is. Israel's become something of the world's punching bag. Um it's an easy hit. Uh a lot of it just plays a domestic audiences if we see the the the leaders who do it. Obviously in the Arab world it's very popular. It's an easy hit for leaders who may not be popular or just want extra popularity. Uh but in the west we see those with large uh

4:06 let's put it this way domestic audiences which have a propensity towards um you know anti-Israel sentiment sometimes uh by extremely unpopular leaders who are just looking for a rise in the polls but it does seem that you know it's it's it's open season uh on Israel at the moment um in this uh annual sort of uh you know uh fest and and as I said it's become a little bit in the theater of the obsessed. Prime Minister Netanyahu is leaving Israel tonight to speak uh at um at the UN tomorrow as we heard you know we heard Mandari during his campaigns that he would arrest Prime Minister Netanyao and then when not when he realized because clearly he realized all along he wouldn't be able to do it then he basically said well I can't do it it's not it's not my decision it's a federal decision and then called for demonstrations against uh Netanyao um and even that Uh it will I'm sure there will be demonstrations. Um but you know

5:10 we will see uh Prime Minister Netany ascend the UN podium or naturally see a relatively empty room. Maybe we'll even see some sort of public walkout as he ascends the podium to try and make a point. Um but uh Prime Minister Netanyahu himself has said that he's going to use the speech to push back against them the mounting pressure over the settlements over uh settler violence etc etc. He said that he will tell Israel's truth and of course there will be surprises and even he mentioned Mandani at one point he'll push back against the lies. Um we've seen Metinaro pretty much on and off apart from once or twice over the last uh what is it 17 this uh stage really to try and make a point to try and get a lot of headlines especially with what is it 34 days until the elections um it's very much going to be a speech geared towards a domestic

6:13 audience uh back home as we've said in recent weeks hasn't really had that uh victory he sought. He hasn't had that major peace breakthrough with Saudi Arabia or or maybe others that he's also sought and he's not really got that massive endorsement from Donald Trump. Although uh Trump did retweet um on his Truth Social network a an article which says that uh uh BB's block uh is ahead in the polls. I mean, it's a relatively singular poll, although as I said last week that the blocks are certainly getting closer together. Um, so what Netanyahari is going to do is he he understands that this will be filmed. It will be rerun and he knows especially to his base and even his soft base. This is where Natinari excels. He's an excellent speaker. We know that he's an excellent deliverer of his speech and we also know that he likes his props and those usually get him a lot of attention not just in Israel but all around the world.

7:14 They become they have been in the past with with the car the sort of cartoon bomb of Iran and he showed maps and I think even Awitz plans and things like that in the past. So he usually has some trick up his sleeve and I'm sure tomorrow will be no different because you know he is fighting for his political uh life. So I'm sure there'll be um uh be something along those lines and also uh he and his supporters will make the point in the coming days after the speech that only Nata can deliver such a speech and early on in the campaign he's talked uh or his people surrogates or party talked about how the fact that Eisen doesn't have particularly good English and that really is to his great disadvantage.

7:59 tomorrow he will show off his oratory skills um to Israel and to the world and certainly that will be used in campaign videos again and again. Um interestingly which certainly could be taken advantage of by the opposition is the fact that Netanyahu is going in where many if not most of the world leaders are going to be and so far he doesn't have a single meeting. Now he is trying to get meetings. Uh certainly could certainly be put on the schedule by tomorrow. But at the moment it's it's it it will be pretty unprecedented if Israel's prime minister goes to the UN and will not get a sit down with anyone. Even Donald Trump at this point has said uh because the scheduling diff uh difficulty is that he will not be meeting uh Netanyahu one is on the ground for around 24 hours maybe less. I don't know the exact details. Um, I'm sure that that is probably partly because of the lack of meetings. If there were meetings, I'm sure he would take it. And even though

9:02 uh it would it would mean that he would uh be there longer into the Sabbath, that's never stopped missing in the past and he's quite allowed to stay uh in New York over the over the Sabbath. Um, one thing, one other thing that he will certainly be stepping into is a is a major attempt led by the UK and France, um, against Israel, uh, specifically trying to focus on, uh, the settlements and so-called settle violence. Um, and it does seem like it's picking up steam. Uh there was talk of even influencing some members of the Trump administration, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to uh uh lessen those flames a little bit by saying we do not want uh this to become a major explosive uh story. Um but it's clear that the um the UK and France are leading efforts to try and isolate Israel even further and try to uh push the whole agenda of settlement and settler uh violence very much onto the

10:05 uh world stage. Moving over a little bit uh to domestic politics. We have before every election we have uh the there is the anability um for um parties to come forward and try and ban other parties uh if they contribute certain rules if you deny Israel as a as a as a Jewish and democratic state if you uh support terror etc etc. So usually that's used by the right to try and ban the Arab parties. It happens almost every election. And what happens is usually while they will get banned because the composition of the committee itself is made up of uh the political parties and the Knesset and obviously the coalition has a majority whoever they are. Um so once again we saw uh the joint list and Ram uh being banned or or the vote uh on the electoral committee to ban them. But interestingly this time we certainly saw some something different. As I said

11:08 there was uh a very solid vote against the joint list and RAM whereas the joint list uh basically uh there was a very strong majority slightly less against Ram. Uh, one of the reasons they went after uh the coalition is to try and embarrass the more right-wing elements of uh the coalition um because the argument that the coalition makes is that um the opposition will not be able to form a government without the support of of Ram and Ram itself has tried to moderate its image etc. even brought in someone from Yeshid. Um uh interestingly there was a bit of a split in the opposition. Israel betenu basically uh voted with the coalition probably the most right-wing party in the opposition whereas um the party of uh Bennett and the paid uh was not present u but beyond that and as I said probably those will be as they always are overruled by the queen for and in fact the appeals have already

12:11 been made and I would say it's 99% sure that um the parties themselves will overturn that uh that uh ban. But what's interesting is that sometimes also individuals are banned. Usually the the sole Jewish member of the Arab list of Kasif is um targeted because he denies according to the petitioners uh that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state. But the most interesting one this time is um Sami Abuled who might not be a household name abroad but he is the head of Balad uh the nationalist party um in the joint list.

12:51 The joint list is made up of three parties and uh Sami Abul that is number three I believe on the joint list and he was singled out specifically because on October 8th 2023 he wrote in Arabic an oped praising uh the October 7th massacre calling it an important and historic delay. Um when this was basically uh when he understood what was happening uh he tried to deny it. He said he didn't understand the full extent of the events which is a bit of a weak response. So if there weren't 1,200 people killed and what was it 300 people taken hostage show even if it's less you know it's a very weak argument. Um Abdul Scheler himself because I guess he was nervous about it or tried to find a way out suddenly found himself ill and taken to hospital. Interestingly, he uh tried to testify from uh by Zoom or whatever video conference uh from a hospital bed.

13:52 He didn't even try and hide the fact that he was reading from prepared marks. He held the piece of paper right up to his face. So, it was really left in no doubt that he was reading from prepared marks where he tried to disavow. He said he condemned the October 7th massacre. He's never supported all these types of things. Um and but the interesting thing there's there's two very interesting things here or a few interesting things. First of all, as opposed to all the others, the Democrats, the the most left-wing Zionist party uh or the most leftwing party except for the Arab parties um supported uh the petition against Arusha. Yay Golan saying his his comments were absolutely unacceptable.

14:36 Interestingly enough, there was a difference of opinion within the party about that. others who said it's going to hurt us electorally. Um I see already there's someone who's written in the chat. Please uh remove it or just move it over to the Q&A and obviously please put in your questions now. Um Yay Golan was basically attacked by other members of the Democrats who said it's going to hurt them. The Democrats or formerly merits um even Labor have traditionally gained some support from the Arab sector. They have prominent Arab members of their list. So there were some who argued that supporting this um the the petition against Abusha could hurt them electorally. Yay Golan said well this is a principal position. He supported October 7th massacre and um that's why he should be um that's why he should be thrown out of the upcoming election.

15:30 What was even more interesting is usually the committee chairman is a Supreme Court justice um who usually doesn't vote uh usually takes a very neutral stand on this just kind of oversees uh the proceedings. Um but interestingly enough uh uh Justice uh for the first time I believe in 20 years actually voted with uh those who tried to petition against Abusha. That is uh very very interesting because it could actually have an effect on when um uh basically it's taken to the Supreme Court and even further the attorney general Galibar Vara who was considered you know an opponent of the coalition also recommended um that he be uh denied the ability to run in the upcoming election. So interesting we have almost wall-to-wall support not against the parties themselves not even against Kas but against Abushka. So it could be or

16:34 have I think for the first time um in a while we could have an Arab member of Kesset uh denied the ability to run uh in the next elections. We have seen in the past Mayor Kahana was banned from running in the elections. Um but usually it does not affect um the Arabs because the Supreme Court usually takes a more uh a wider stance on this. Tomorrow we'll see uh petitions to try and um deny [clears throat] uh Otsma UI and relian scientists from running in the Knesset. They will not have a majority. As I said, it goes along uh the current strength. So there's no chance of it. But again, these things always happen before every election. So we're just going according to wrote, but there does seem to be uh something different happening this year uh regarding uh Sammy Abul Shredded.

17:30 Finally, there was a bit of a a bomb drop today by political bold, let's put it that way, by chair of Victoria. Um usually he likes to come out with uh what some might call maverick ideas and today was no different. during an interview um he was asked about the future of Judea and Samaria the West Bank and he said that he believes that um obviously Hamas cannot run it he believes that the PA should be absolutely analled there's no way they're morally bankrupt they're bankrupt um so the only ones who can come in is Jordan the Jordanian army can administer area A and B he did initially say B and C but uh that was he missed He misspoke. That was a slip of the tongue.

18:19 But what he meant was area A, which is under full Palestinian control, um, administrative and military, um, and B, which is under Palestinian administrative, uh, but Israeli military control, and C is obviously, uh, under full Israeli control where most of the, uh, settlements are. Um so the fact that he put that out is you know caused uh caused quite a quite a stir and really did give um Prime Minister Netanyahu an opportunity to attack his you know to a certain extent nemesis former you know very close ally now you know visual opponent um it was a very strange thing uh to say politically especially a month before the election I can't imagine it gets much politically uh him much politically. Um but it certainly does get the conversation uh back to Leman where he's kind of been overshadowed in the last two months by Eisenot and Bennett. Interestingly, Saturday night um there is supposed to

19:24 be a meeting of all the um opposition heads. That hasn't happened since last November. And last November there was no picture because um Bennett did not want to be seen in the same picture as Yolan. We'll see if there's a picture that comes out of that. But the idea is to coordinate messaging, not to attack each other because at the moment the opposition the the agenda points around the opposition is is just sort of procedural. Who's going to order the block? Who's going to nominate who for being prime minister? Who will stick with them? And what happens if there's a minority government? Will they invite RA? Will they not? Will they rely on uh maybe the other party as well to help them form a minority government? These are all procedural issues and they're really preventing uh the opposition block from uh from gaining momentum. Uh whereas the uh the the current coalition has if anything gained momentum over the last few weeks. They're going to try and see if they can find a way forward to stem that momentum of the opposition and try and take back uh themselves because

20:26 at this point it really is and every vote matters, every seat matters. Uh at the moment, according to pretty much every poll I've seen, every serious poll, neither side has a an obvious pass uh to government. So, we'll have to keep an eye on that. And with that, I'm going to go to your questions. Um if the sup Hillbrand asks, if the Supreme Court upholds the CEC Central elections committee banning of the joint, how do you see that impact on the election results? I mean, I I I won't entertain the question because I I I would put a lot of money on it not happening. It happens before every single election. It's it's almost a game. Um I don't see it happening.

21:09 There's no way that there's no way that they'll uh ban one, let alone two. Um so I don't I just don't see that happening. I can't imagine uh a I I I'm almost certain that both lists will be able to run again. Whether Sami Abu Shra can run that certainly is in doubt and I wouldn't put too much money on that um being overturned at the Supreme Court because there certainly is a very solid case but certainly I do not see the parties being banned. okay. Robert asked, "What do the Israeli polls say about Niner's popularity compared to the others who want to be prime minister and two-state solution what Israel should do about Iran?" I don't know. Well, I can tell you the first the answer to the first. For quite a number of months now, um, NetO's lagged in a direct in a direct poll and people have said, "Who do you think is more suitable to be prime minister?" They always like to ask these questions.

22:08 Um and Netanyao against Eisenkot, Netanyao against Bennett, Natino. Previously it was against but now he's not running. He's number two on Bennett's list. And even Lieberman um the one who definitely is coming out more popular um is Eisenot. Sometimes it narrows, sometimes it grows, but there's been consistent over the last few months um that Eisenot is considered more popular in a one-on-one race. Obviously that's not that's not the rate Israeli politics work and you don't vote for prime minister but it's clear that Eisen on the whole is more popular uh Janet whereas all the others are less popular Bennett I think is a few points behind and Leeman quite a few points uh behind that two-state solution uh is pretty much not on the agenda it's not an issue uh in the elections I haven't seen it pulled anywhere I don't see a single party, not even the Democrats have put it front and center. Perhaps they've got

23:10 it almost certainly I believe they do somewhere in their manifesto in the constitution and their vision. Um but even they understand it's it it's not an issue. The Israeli public doesn't have an appetite uh for the issue at the moment, especially after October 7th. Uh so it's really not an issue and I haven't seen it pulled uh anywhere. I I I did see I I did see I think the Israeli Democracy Institute asked it. No, no polls of you know of any electoral uh uh concern, but the Israel Democracy Institute, I do believe that they pulled it recently and I think there was maybe around a third a third of uh Israeli voters still support it. I think it's even less amongst Palestinians. So, it's not a electoral issue and it's certainly not a popular issue and as as I've made clear uh in recent weeks, the uh the leaders are all reading the same polls and they're understanding it's not an issue to run on even for the far left at this point.

24:09 What Israel should do about Iran? I think there's wallto-wall support uh that Iran remains a threat. Um what that looks like uh hasn't really been poll but certainly Israelis of all stripes of all ideologies understand that uh Iran is an existential threat. and Palik asked if Israel goes through a second round of elections when will they take place could they be delayed indefinitely further war breaks out second round? I mean there there's a there's a there's a timetable after the elections just to go through it quickly after the elections we wait a couple of days for the final results and then when the final results are in uh they're given to the president uh all of the uh heads of the parties are invited by the president to say who they will nominate as the prime minister. Based on that, the president will invite um the lead that he believes has the best chance of forming a government uh to try and do so. I think if I remember correctly, he

25:13 has 20 or she has it can be by the way any member of Ken. It doesn't even have to be uh a leader of a party, but obviously it will be. They have 28 days to try and form a government. That's for uh uh coalition negotiations. And then they have the ability to ask for another 14. they always do because everyone knows that they have it. So, everyone will hold out that a little bit longer. If they're not able to do uh at the end of what is it 42 days, uh the president has the ability to then offer uh then uh someone else to form a government and again I think they get pretty much the same amount of time. Um although as we've seen before uh the co if uh a party has the the uh requisite number of votes to dissolve that kesset which don't forget the knesset uh will be uh called before government. So a kesset then can dissolve itself and go to new elections even during this process. So we we're we're probably talking about months. Um could it be delayed

26:16 indefinitely if further war breaks up? Obviously, if the war affects the home front, if it's far away, uh perhaps not. And if there's not attacks on on Israel, in theory, could still hold elections. Obviously, it will be more difficult. Um but, uh we'll have to see about that. Um Steven Wilstein asked, "Does our violence against settlers exceed sex violence?" Yes, statistically it does. Um does it get as many headlines? Absolutely not. Um but as someone laid out earlier today, especially after another uh Arab terrorist attack, this time uh on a on a checkpoint uh near Modiin and u the person who is now fighting for their life is actually the son of Ambassador Yila um who already lost a son. I think it was in November 2023 in the early part of the war. But now another son is fighting for his life. Ambassador Lighter who was obviously meant to be very much part of um Netanyahu's retinue

27:20 in over the next day or so in in New York has had to race back to Israel to be by his son's side as he fights for his life in Jerusalem. So these attacks happen all the time. Probably if he wasn't the son of the ambassador, it wouldn't make headlines anywhere outside of Israel. Unfortunately, um it's almost a daily occurrence and that's why uh the chief of staff, the IDF chief of staff moved another division to Jed Jude Samaria because there is an uptick in violence and uh while settler violence we can't deny that it happens. We can't deny that it's it was growing now. It seems to have actually taken a dip over the last uh month. What we do know and what we have seen statistically, it's many many times more likely that an a Palestinian will attack an Israeli than an Israeli will attack uh a Palestinian. Um as Jack Wermanman says, well, I just said, son of ambassador to US Nitera is seriously injured in the car raming attack and and

28:22 he says best thoughts and wishes are with him. Absolutely. Uh I think we can all uh agree with those uh sentiments. Um one last question Lansburg I guess referring to what I said about Leman. Would Jordan want the proposed role? I would think not. First of all, I think in theory they would love it ahead to get control back of the West Bank. But in practice they know it's a fool's errand. It's a uh it would just be a disaster for them. Uh they would you know how would they get involved? uh they defend uh Palestinian terrorists if an Israeli was hunting them. I mean it's uh it's it's a very complex uh concept and I'm I don't see it happening uh regardless of uh the fact that it rose today and I don't think Jordan even though it would love uh to a certain extent in theory very much in theory to have some sort of role um in Jude and Samaria they know practically on the

29:25 ground it it would be a disaster for him. So I don't I don't think they'll be taking uh Israel up on that anytime soon. And with that, I'd like to thank you again for your questions and participation and I look forward to seeing you next week. Good good luck from Israel.