Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Good evening from Israel and welcome to another Israel Insider with me Ashley Perry adviser to the ML Forum Israel office. The last time we met couple of weeks ago we talked about the uh MOU uh between Iran and uh and uh the US and we you know we went over some of the points and how bad they are at least in perception for Israel. Obviously, everything is about implementation and uh you know, we're not really seeing too much of that at the moment. Um but it certainly looked on paper to be a bad uh agreement. Well, on Friday night there was what's called the trilateral framework. Um basically uh Lebanon, Israel, and the US signed an agreement.

0:48 It was Friday night, Israel time. It was Friday morning or Friday afternoon. um DC time. It was signed by the I believe the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors and um basically it's a very very good agreement from the point of Israel and in fact to a certain extent undo undoes some of the greatest concerns that Israel has uh with theou uh that I mentioned before. If theou um created a type of Iranian patronage uh patronage over Lebanon, the trilateral framework basically reclaims it. Um as we know theou I think the first point which was also from an optics point of view uh you know uh really stated at that front that um basically that the uh the ceasefire uh takes place on all fronts including Lebanon specifically if I remember correctly Lebanon was named and basically Iran took that to mean that

1:52 they can threaten Israel any actions you do we will respond we are responsible Lebanon is now under our uh patronage etc etc. Um well this basically completely undoes any perception and really puts in word and hopefully indeed the fact that um the situation Lebanon will be worked out between Lebanon and Israel with the assistance uh of the US and the US does play quite a role. But the main uh part of this is there was face-to-face negotiations between um Lebanon Lebanese and Israeli officials.

2:30 An agreement was arrived. You know, we haven't seen the likes of this since the early 80s with a very short-lived uh agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Hopefully, this will last a lot longer. So let's go over uh as we did with the MOU some of the points and and as opposed to the MOU as I said these are some of the better points I'm going to u mention. Um first of all it allows Israel to dictate the dictate the pace and time of their retreat. There is no timetable mentioned at all. It can take days, it can take weeks, it can take months, possibly uh even years. Um but basically it's going to be a matter of um what what's going to happen is Israel is going to retreat from two areas that are already under control um south of Natani. The Lebanese wanted something closer to the border. Israel rejected that out of hand. It's going to be pilots. We need to see that this works.

3:34 So it needs to be as far away from Israeli population centers uh as possible. So it is going to be uh further away from the border probably just below the Latani River. Obviously that's very important for Lebanese that it was in that particular uh area and uh it's really you know it it's going to the the process is going to be that Israel will only hand over territory that it believes um that it has rid of his militants terrorists weapons cache tunnels whatever it is um that's necessary then after This is verified by both sides, Israel and Lebanon.

4:17 Basically hands over to the Lebanese armed forces who will then control the area and then basically they'll see uh you know they'll verify to see if it remains under the Lebanese armed forces or Hezbollah try and take over or infiltrate um before moving on to any other uh pilots or any other territories. It says um it basically without saying it which is quite impressive is that it it basically says the only power that's possible to disarm is Israel. Doesn't really name if it it talks about armed groups a lot but everyone knows who they're talking about. Although there are other armed groups uh non-state armed groups uh in Lebanon obviously is the largest by far.

5:07 But it basically you know for a long time people were saying well you know Israel should retreat and it should be up to the Lebanese armed forces or international forces to um disarmah. Well, now this trilateral framework has basically admitted that the only power able to do so is Israel and that's significant uh in many many different ways. Um there is an important uh there are various important levels of verification. there's going to be this joint coordination group um with uh LAF and uh IDF U oversight which basically again gives to a certain extent a veto to Israel because obviously nothing can move forward until both sides have verified that uh the process is taking place as uh was written. Um so again it could be as slow or as quick as possible. Israel said in the uh agreement itself that it holds no territorial aspirations to Lebanon. That

6:10 remains true. If it believes that there is no threat from Lebanon, Israel will not hold on to one uh inch of Lebanon and will remove itself uh once more. Another important element is there within this trilateral framework there is a path to peace and normalization that is laid out a little bit later. There are 14 points. Um but definitely there is a path uh to peace and Um importantly, as I said earlier, it rejects any claims or connection uh by Iran to Iran and the Iranians are certainly not uh happy about this uh whatsoever. Another important point is that it stalls his funds. Um, again, it might not just be Hezbollah. There are many armed groups um in uh Lebanon, not least Palestinian uh armed groups in in Palestinian uh so-called refugee camps uh in Lebanon. Uh kamas have a presence and and various others. So, you know, it

7:14 could also uh mean uh in effect starving uh these groups as well of funds and bombs obviously as well. Um, importantly, it connects uh the restoration of security and return of civil civilian populations with the uh security of Israel's northern communities. This is quite interesting language that used which shows um an understanding and consideration from both sides. Israel admits that, you know, it's uh it it understands the security and the civilian uh effect on its presence in uh southern Lebanon, but it also means that the Lebanese understand that at the heart of Israel's actions is always the security of Israel's northern communities. And that's language which really is uh I wouldn't say historic but certainly very very important because it's rare that a an agreement like this shows any concern for Israel's very real um security uh Um what is also important and I would

8:21 argue historic is what it doesn't say and it doesn't mention UNIFIL uh the UN uh uh organization which has basically had a presence in Lebanon for decades which is supposed to be the um you know the observing force the peacekeeping force which has basically been pretty much redundant. It hasn't stopped any conflict, hasn't stopped Fisbalah attacking Israel, hasn't stopped Israel coming into Lebanon, hasn't really done anything. Uh, in fact, unfortunately, some UNIFIL soldiers have been killed um during the conflict and all they've really been doing the last few years is basically protecting themselves. It just really shows that neither side believes that they're effective. And even more so, it doesn't argue for any sort of replacement forces, not by the UN or any international forces. And that also is quite important because if we see um peace agreements whether with Egypt um whether or or or sort of armistice agreements with with Syria and and

9:25 others, there's always UN forces involved. Well, this doesn't envision any UN forces or any international forces. The only forces uh that basically are written into this agreement are Israeli forces and the Lebanese armed forces. So that's also uh quite historic. Um but it has to be said this is quite a gamble for President Aun uh who is really trying to gain support for this. He's had enough. He understands that the people have had enough. But as we know the Lebanese um uh political and uh uh societal uh frameworks are very tricky. Uh there are four major groups in the country.

10:10 Shiites, Sunni, Muslims, uh Jews and Christians. And they have a power sharing agreement they have had since the uh uh the Lebanese civil war. Um so this is a bit of a gamble and we already see the leader of the Amal movement um and now Bill Bry who is also the speaker of parliament that's a position reserved for the Shiite community. He said he's the political leader and already he's trying to uh fight President Aun on this and has already had conversations with his you know some would argue pay masters or where he gets his direction from in Thran and obviously they are very angry about it but the interesting thing is they haven't threatened violence yet usually in the past when these types of things would I mean this predatoral framework is pretty historic so there haven't been any of these things. But even when Lebanon uh when when official Lebanese authorities have talked about disarming his or doing something along those lines, we've

11:12 always seen threats. We've seen threats of assassination. And we know Hariri was assassinated. Various others were assassinated, threatened to be assassinated. Even if they looked in in, you know, in the wrong way, that's when it's a far more powerful organization. still they still have a massive community of support. Not all Shiites obviously are in favor and everything they've done, but they still have a very strong support. They can take to the streets. They can have a show of force. So there is a gamble here. It'll be very interesting to see what happens. Who leads um the fight? Is it going to be ratified by parliament? Who's going to agree? Which which groups are going to come together? whether it even needs to come to parliament. um it's going to be very important obviously just like theou at the end of the day however good or bad an agreement is it's all in the implementation and here also the the verification um is key um but really it's it's a very good agreement um the

12:15 US is involved um already we see the SECOM chief Brad Kooper met with General Rodulf Hiku which is a very important meeting because the um chief of staff of the Lebanese armed forces is very much someone who has who is let's just put it mildly hesitated to take on in the past when he has been ordered or pushed to take on he has not done so and cited the need for civil peace that's you know that's always in the background let's let's not forget Lebanon is scarred from a civil war between some of these competing communities and many Lebanese want to do everything to ensure that doesn't happen again. So there's always a tradeoff um with trying to take these major steps and we have seen that the chief of staff, the highest military officer in the Lebanese armed forces has resisted attempts to push him uh to try and

13:19 disarm um Hezbollah. to the fact that the Sencom uh com uh commander uh Bradley Cooper has been uh meeting with him. Hopefully will see some uh movement there. The US is very involved in this not least in funding uh for the Lebanese armed forces. There's been this discussion for many years that the Lebanese armed forces cannot compete with Kalahar because quite simply the funding is not there because barak troops more. They have you know money billions over the years coming in from Iran and the Lebanese armed forces is basically destitute or the US is certainly going to book some of the bill for that to ensure that they are a stronger more robust force. Obviously, there are still problems in the Lebanese army perhaps with training, professionalism, but also infiltration.

14:15 That's always been uh a concern. Interestingly, there was talk in the last few weeks, excuse me, of somehow finding a way to uh integrate Hezbollah into the Lebanese armed forces. This was obviously a way to try and you know ensure the situation continues and this fra uh trilateral framework rejects that uh issue completely uh takes it off the table. Those who'd hoped that it would be part of some sort of agreement that would allow to remain and survive etc.

14:50 you know that that's off the table. But at the end of the day, if this is implemented as it sounds and and and there there is a a very important uh security annex to this, it's it's going to be historic. It could mean the end of again, this is a long shot, and I'm not overly optimistic uh from um history, but if it is implemented, then it certainly will be uh historic. It will mean potentially peace between Israel and Lebanon. It will mean an end to the threat of what Israel sees as historically at least one of its strongest enemies, the strongest proxy of Iran. As I've said many, many times over the last few years, Hezbollah is not just a terrorist organization. They are an army in every sense of the word, or at least they were before uh October 7th. uh um you know the October 7th massacre and and obviously what Israel has done in Lebanon since then and they've degraded Hezbollah massively but as we know if the situation is left as

15:53 is Iran could and it's trying to funnel back in to Lebanon as much funds as much arms as much expertise revolutionary um their people are already on the ground trying to reformah you know to try and give Israel the Isra Israeli uh uh you know defense forces that remain in Lebanon a bloody nose trying to kill as many as possible trying to you know bleed Israel out as they thought that they've done uh in the past. So it's very important that this uh this agreement is uh implemented um and even if it's mostly implemented it will still be a very very strong uh agreement. So we have to look out. But certainly this is very positive and as I said at least one of the major concerns that Israel had in theou sign between uh Iran and uh and the US.

16:50 Moving south um Gaza seems to come back a little bit on the radar. The border of peace have met. Um they're trying to get this uh board of technocrats to take over Gaza. Uh but the most interesting news that came out from the border peace in a tweet uh interestingly was that um UNRA has no place. Uh UNRA as we know is the UN vehicle that's basically uh been funding everything from schools to humanitarian concerns but as we also know were massively infiltrated by Hamas many uh UNRA employees, teachers etc.

17:29 also Hamas uh militants, terrorists, but also uh in their teaching system and everything um very much uh going alongside Kamas ideology. It's become very very controversial not least in Israel which has been pushing for an end of uh to UNRA for a while and we know President Trump is also no fan of UNRA. So for the border piece with all its um members from around the world again you know it's a tweet but still to basically say UNRA will have no place uh in in Gaza is significant. It received push back obviously from Palestinian authority but it's muted push back because at the end of the day Mahmud Abbas does not want to uh annoy Trump too much. Um, so we'll have to see exactly how this is implemented. Could this be the end of RNA? Certainly, Israel would hope that's true. And I'm sure a lot of Palestinians uh as well because it it's problematic. And if there can be found an alternative

18:34 way to provide the humanitarian services that does without the extremism and the hijacking by Hamas um and the very hostile elements to Israel then certainly that would be preferable. Uh moving closer to home just before we go to questions um we are ending the final session of this uh government the final uh Knesset session with only got a couple more weeks and uh it looks uh more more like we are going to have elections at the end of October. uh every week that goes past means we have to push it further and further back that as we know the final date has to be the 28th of October but at the moment uh most of the work in the um the Knesset is trying to squeeze through as many last minute laws as possible as we know in the current coalition there it's really two sides there's leud religious scientist and the ultraorththodox ultraorththodox don't see themselves beh holden to the

19:36 coalition hasn't seen that for a while, which would mean that no laws could really be passed because they they have a significant amount um representation within the coalition and without them there's no majority. So there's now a bit of a trade-off. On the one hand um you know the the Liur and Religious Science Party and Osmayuden are pushing issues of judicial reform, communications and media reform. But the uh ultraorththodox basically want three major things um which are being discussed at the moment and some of the past preliminary laws. The most controversial of which is the basic law as we know um basic laws have a quasi constitutional nature in Israel and the ultra orthodox are saying that the reason that um that their community is they would say it's discriminated against and uh you know now that there's there's no uh you know sort of safety net for their uh you know young 18y olds

20:43 to avoid army service. Um, basically they want to create a basic law which will have a sort of a higher level of legal status uh that will basically have uh what they're trying to do is pass a basic law about learning uh Torah and how this is of the highest contribution to Israel. And basically what they hope to do with that is if they pass it, it will then have to be taken into consideration by the Supreme Court uh when deciding on laws. So if they pass a law which says you know uh the ultraorththodox can get out of the army because they learn Torah which is an important contribution to society, the Supreme Court have to interpret whether that's constitution or not with this basic law. So it uh it it's very controversial because of the nature of it. At one point they wanted to compare learning Torah with fighting in the IDF that was removed at the behest of Simatr with an religious anist party but still it basically does almost the same thing.

21:48 The other two laws that they want to pass is um to basically return to a situation where the uh chief raven which is controlled by the ultraorth orthodox have complete authority on uh on kosha on kashut and also controversially they want to pass a law that there will be no arrests of ultra orthodox um youngsters who are supposed to go to the army and at the moment are not turning up and that's an illegal process. and they can be and some are arrested so they want to try and do that. So there's a bit of a trade-off um net wants to try and eling elongate the situation is not impossible without really passing any of them.

22:30 We'll probably see some of them pass first reading. Perhaps we'll even see some of them passed. But certainly uh NetO doesn't want the headache going to the left with some of the more controversial ones. But he does want his laws passed before the end of the as well. I should have mentioned another one to create basically a a a political inquiry into October 7th massacre as opposed to a state commission of inquiry. And with that, uh, I'm going to go to, uh, questions. Uh, Krie Hillbran asked, "Does any of the parties to the trilateral framework seriously believe that the Lebanese armed forces have either the will or the capability to take on Kasba?" Well, that's all about sequencing. First of all, um, the areas that Israel Israel will hand over will already be free of that's an important element. And the sequencing here is very important because it's Israel who will clear the area or rid uh the area of any fisbellah uh elements and only then will it pass

23:36 on to the Lebanese armed forces and obviously we're not talking about the largest amount of territory. Israel will still be very much there and if necessary, I'm sure it's not written into it, we'll be able to go in again uh to to um you know meet out any uh uh you know terrorists or infrastructure. So um you know that that's the important element as as I made clear. This is not about the Lebanese armed forces having to take on KBA. This is about Israel clearing the area, fighting, beating, defeating, clearing the area and only then passing it on. Yes, there could be a question, you know, once Israel fully retreats where the are just playing the waiting game and then coming back. But hopefully this will be looked into and this will be taken into consideration as we get forward. Uh Eric Sov says or asked the Lebanese Israel, it's not recognized by but also what chances have to succeed. Well, again, you know, I I'm I'm not I'm I'm saying it's a it's a

24:40 very good agreement on paper. I'm not saying that necessarily it will work, but it certainly stands the best chance. Um and again, because it gives Israel the right um to basically stand till are uh you know, out of all the areas that Israel retreats from. Does that mean an end to his? Probably not. Um but um you know his can certainly play a significant role in in trying to destroy this uh framework. Um but the sequencing is very important. The sequencing is very good for Israel. Certainly what they sought and interestingly now it's got the stamp of approval from both the Lebanese government and the American Um I have a question here.

25:30 Uh George Pilios um says, "Would you say the framework pretty much excludes any possible interference from Galani or even from Erdogan himself?" Well, Golani has his own concerns in Syria. Obviously, uh there was at one point President Trump tried to push um Golani and his Syrian forces into the Lebanese uh context. It was never going to happen. And the last thing the Syrian army is to be bogged down again in Lebanon. They were there uh you know for decades. The Lebanese uh people don't have a good memory of of that. So you know all the powers in the region you know Lebanon has always been a relatively frail state because of its demographic makeup and it was always susceptible to outside influences and I'm sure the Syrians and as uh George makes uh clear also um Turkeykey's president uh Erdogan they will try and influence this as much as possible but at the moment we see the legitimate

26:34 representative of the Lebanese people the haven't enough basically standing alongside Israel saying this is the way we're going to do it. So there's always going to be room uh for outside parties to try and uh ruin if they want or dictate what's going to happen, but at the moment the power behind it is America and the important players on the ground are Israel and uh Lebanon. and RB Ramir Ramitz um says modified Kan expert on a culture said today the only way to achieve stability for the main religious groups have their own autonomous areas to avoid mayhem and power struggles between religious and ethnic groups. K also said that many members of the Lebanese armed forces are aligned with Kzbella which I addressed and that many government officials have been bribed by Iran to do nothing to stop KBA. Do you agree with his assessment? Um I mean you know again all we have at the moment is a piece of paper. It's certainly talks a good game. We'll have

27:37 to see what happens. Um you know Lebanon to a certain extent is split up into different uh areas ruled by different party. Uh you know there are Christian areas, Jews areas, Shiak areas, Sunni areas. It's not as well defined perhaps as uh Iraq or other places which have you know significant portions of the country um you know uh ruled over autonomously or whatever or or lived in by certain groups because it's a much smaller country and the communities are far more integrated or previously were.

28:10 Um, so Lebanon perhaps can't go back to that model where there are completely autonomous areas, but of course and Iran are trying are going to try and figure out a way to stop this, the implementation of this. Hezbollah remain the jewel in the crown for Iran. They are, you know, they were always the main threat uh to Israel and there's no way Iran is going to give that up. They plowed can't remember I think I talked about it last time tens of billions of dollars into his to making it the significant force that it was all those years. Um so it's not going to give up yet and yes um Iran and are going to be very very involved and uh they're not going to give up uh too easily but hopefully um you know we can at least move forward with this trilateral framework as was written and uh again we can only go by uh what's written has to be implemented. We have to see facts on the ground what's going to happen. But

29:12 it basically allows Israel to stay on the ground as long as it wants to dictate the pace of the disengagement, the retreat, the removal of its forces, whatever it is. And it will only do so, and it only has to do so when it is completely comfortable withah no longer being in that particular area until they move on to the next area. So positive things uh certain optimism but again there's a long uh road to go and we've seen this many many times. Let's hope this one uh um you know has some success but most importantly even before we see anything on the ground it has undone as I said at the beginning uh some of the negative elements relating to Lebanon that were found in the uhou in the first line of theou sign between Iran and the US. So certainly the situation is looking more positive for Israel. is reclaimed uh to a certain extent um you know the the framework and uh and and being involved with Lebanon and it now

30:14 leaves the ball very much in the hands of both Lebanon and Israel with the US uh watching on of course as you make uh and Iran will do anything possible to ruin it maybe stop it uh you know before it's even implemented but we'll just have to wait in the days, weeks, and months ahead to see how that works itself out. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your questions. Thank you for your participation, and I hope to see you next week.