Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Hello and good evening uh from Israel uh for another um Israel insider with me Ashley Perry advisor to M East forum Israel office. Uh as usual I will speak for about 15 to 20 minutes and then leave the rest of time for your questions. As ever uh please put your questions in the Q&A box at the bottom. Please do not put them in the chat. Every week someone puts a question in the chat. I will not see it. I will only go to the Q&A. So, please ensure you put your questions in the Q&A. You can put them in any time um throughout my remarks during the Q&A um at any point. Um, we're going to start uh a little bit differently this week with the uh controversy over a newly I wouldn't even say released because it hasn't been widespread released. A documentary that won an award wasn't even the best uh documentary at a film festival, but it

1:04 did get a record round of applause and that's probably which gave it a little bit of pro prominence. Um, it was a documentary for those who haven't heard of it. Um, uh, NAZA is the acronym that Israel uses for collateral damage and strikes and potential, you know, civilian harm and all that sort of thing. They probably chose it also because it sounds like Gaza. Probably also because it's one letter away from Nazi. I wouldn't be surprised. Some people have alluded to that. But um basically the documentary is uh apparently filmed on a rooftop somewhere in Tel Aviv where they interview about um people in the army or were in the army during um the war against Hamas. Uh all of their names, their titles, their divisions, everything has has been concealed. It's anonymous. And basically they go through and you know I don't know how long the documentary is. It's

2:06 not on mass release and I haven't seen it, but basically goes through all these sort of accusations that Israel has a policy of targeting civilians. It uses AI rather than human um to determine whether a target can be targeted. And even the the the the worst assertion is at one point they thought that there'd be 500 civilian casualties. Um and that didn't seem to deter uh anyone in the IDF. I mean, it's it's really a a a liel and that's what it's been uh defined as by many in Israel and the uh anyone who knows anything about the IDF can easily dismiss most of the central claims because they're simply not true. Um but rather than the film itself, it did cause a lot of controversy here. One can imagine in election campaign time, the far-left took a position that these are issues which should be discussed and defended.

3:02 uh this documentary I should say for those who don't know the producers the directors whatever were Israelis uh these are far-left even anti-ionist Israelis um who are well known they work for uh organizations they have ties to radical anti-ionist groups um the film was made in conjunction with a Guardian newspaper a far-left newspaper in the UK which is raidly anti-Israel Um, interestingly they used that uh, you know, they said, well, there's been a newspaper which has checked uh, up on these allegations when actually the newspaper is one of the people who made it. So, they kind of, you know, kept certain things in the dark to try and justify and give it credibility. But the point is that it became immediately a campaign issue in Israel. The far left defended it. The far right, well, not even the far right, the right attacked it. uh somebody could ministers called for the revocation of their citizenship

4:04 and in fact prime minister Netanyahu said one of the things he's going to do in the next government is revoke citizenship of those who liel uh Israel or the IDF abroad but it basically just an issue here for a while it's something that everyone was talking about uh as one can imagine even the left in Israel the the leftwing media didn't find common cause with it they also attacked it they said sloppy journalism. Um uh one left-wing well-known left-wing um news presenter Ravi Juka, he said, "I've heard these allegations multiple times.

4:43 I've never found any of them credible. I've looked into them. Usually they're second or third hand or even the ones that aren't, there's no there's nothing to back them up." Um, so no one really in Israel, no, no serious person who understands anything about the IDF, uh, knows that these are credible, but they, you know, whether it made a splash internationally or not is is definitely up for debate. There seems to be a difference of opinion between the political and the professional level. the political level as I've said it being in a campaign they lose no opportunity to find something to uh you know to to assert an agenda on or to attack the their opposition on but the [clears throat] professional levels whether in the IDF or the foreign basically came to the conclusion it didn't actually make that much of a splash internationally and what's actually giving it a second wind is the attacks uh by prominent Israeli officials uh and they're making it more about um an issue of stifling uh descent than actually any any content within the

5:48 video. Israel, the foreign ministry hasn't heard or had received any complaints about it or called for any clarifications on it. So it actually hasn't made that much of a splash where it matters and the professional levels are really recommending that uh you know it not really be dealt with it left to die as much as possible but obviously in this political environment a few weeks before election day it's become a little bit of a political uh football. Um, another major event which could have a uh significant ramifications is um the Houthi attack attacks I should say on Saudi Arabia this week and their continuing um move towards um the Baba Alamand strait which would be extremely significant for shipping for uh natural resources around the world. Uh but the fact that they attacked several Saudi uh cities and towns and injured scores of

6:52 people, I'm not sure if there were any fatalities, but certainly many injured. They attacked refineries, etc. The most significant thing that's come out of this is that around a month ago, Saudi Arabia signed what was called the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Um and that was supposed to basically uh say that if one of the countries is attacked something similar to NATO then the other countries have to come to their defense. Well what we've basically seen is like unfortunately many of these types of um agreements in the Arab world in the Muslim world um basically they're not worth the paper they're written on. We've seen many defense packs uh in the Middle East or as I said in the Arab or Muslim world and usually they don't come you know with any real significance uh and really Saudi Arabia learned that um to its own detriment this week when it called on Turkey and Pakistan to live up to the uh letter of the agreement and neither of

7:55 them did anything except send communicates and condemn the attacks etc etc. Um and basically what happened this week was actually I wouldn't say unprecedented but certainly for a long while there was as a result of this there was a meeting Sentcom basically had a meeting uh in Germany this week um and the list of attendees at the military level was quite significant there was the US there was Saudi Arabia Bahrain Q8 Qatar UAE Jordan and Egypt and Israel and uh chief of staff uh Zamir briefed uh his Arab interlocators.

8:34 So it was very significant event the fact that Israel was there discussing uh its uh conflict uh with Arab uh military uh leaders. Um but what came out of it most significantly whereas you know maybe others commis commiserated and and uh said that you know they're not happy about the situation because it will certainly affect them especially Egypt if the Houthis do get to the Babal Mandab straight. Um the only one really who stepped forward and said that they would act and help the Saudis pretty much was Israel. Obviously the US the US were asked um uh NBS asked uh President Trump uh to help to maybe strike the Houthis. Um but President Trump at this point has said no. uh but significantly the the ones who stepped up was Israel once again and it really just shows again uh to the region that when it comes to it there's really only one dependable partner in the region against the extremists against the Iranian le

9:39 proxies uh across the region and that's Israel. Uh the the other interesting thing is uh the Israelis didn't come to the when the Saudis uh asked for help, the Israelis didn't come and try and uh you know make it um you know dependent on something normalization, some sort of understanding or agreement. Israel made a decision that if Saudis are coming and asking for its help, it will help them without any uh ties or any conditions. Um, so that's a a very significant uh event this week and we'll have to see what ramifications it could have because certainly the fact that a they were sitting around the table with all these Arab nations and b the fact that they the ones who um stood up and helped Saudi Arabia when everybody else just talked and sat around and condemned um could be significant uh going forward and we could see uh ramifications far beyond because while before October 7th.

10:42 Certainly, Israel had that position as a trusted partner as someone that they want to ally with and and they're not even ashamed with like the UAE and some of the other Abraham Accords nations and we were moving towards normalization with Saudi Arabia. Certainly since October 7, we haven't seen that. Uh but perhaps these recent events could once again uh change the paradigm back to Israel as a dependable partner, as a partner that you need uh to work with and to uh and and and is there you know not just in in word but also indeed. Um on a domestic level, lots of interesting things happening. um the gaps between the two blocks, the opposition block and the current coalition block are narrowing. Some even have them as equal with um you know sometimes uh Hendle passing the threshold as a sort of third block. But either way, it does seem with the entrance of Winter into the race uh

11:46 by taking at least a couple of his seats from the opposition that there's greater parity between the two blocks. But most importantly, at this point in time, there does not seem to be um any real meaningful way for either block to get that important 61 uh seat majority. I think both um are are polling in the 52s, 53s, 54s. Um usually if there is one leading then it is the opposition block. Um but the um some I see someone's already writing the chat.

12:20 Please uh delete your commenting chat and put it in the Q&A. Um but basically it's significant because at the moment it seems that we might be going towards deadlock again a lot will depend on will off win to pass the threshold will us hendle pass the threshold but at the moment there doesn't seem to be on either side a path uh to government um which leads to an event which happened last night which caused a a bit of a storm more than perhaps a bit of a storm. Uh Gaddy Eisenot, the leader of the opposition block, not the official opposition leader, that's Yidd, but certainly the largest party in the opposition block, met with some local Bedawin leaders and uh depending who you believe um he said that he will bring Ram into coalition or he just said that you know something far far less than that. There were some Betterin leaders who came out this morning in the media

13:22 and said that is exactly what he promised. Yasha which is um Eisenot's party denied it and in fact the Bedawin leader who came out and made this claim walked it back later in the afternoon. Yasha um Eisenkot's party released the recording of the event and it's clear that no such commitment was made but what it does do it gives uh wind uh to the sales for liquid and those who basically are uh you know leading the argument that the opposition block has no majority without Ram the Islamist Arab party um within the coalition that's something which they've tried to deny. Um certainly Avid Leeman has said that he will not sit with Ram. I'm pretty sure Napali Bennett also made that commitment. So the vast majority of the opposition block or at least a large part of the opposition block will not sit with Ram. So again, it seems hard to see how they would get to their 61. If

14:26 you bring Ram in, then you basically potentially leave men out. and he has made extremely strong comments like read my lips Ram will not uh come into the government and usually when Leman speaks like that he means it as we've seen in the past um but again it just gives another opportunity for liquid in the current um coalition to basically make that argument that the opposition has no path to government except with Ram so you can't trust them and you can't uh vote uh for them. Uh on this issue, liquid is also trying to embarrass Lieberman and Bennett, the more right-wing elements in the opposition by going to the uh central elections committee to ban both Arab parties, not just Ram, but also the joint list. This is pretty much uh a standard exercise for the right-wing that before every election they try to ban uh the Arab parties. Usually the far left would also try to ban some of the far right maybe Bengir and others. Um

15:31 but this is a long-standing issue and usually the central elections committee which has a political makeup will uh will rule in favor of the coalition because it's according to um power in the Knesset but then it 100% of the time gets overruled um by uh the Supreme Court and they're allowed to run. that basically this is a tactic to try and embarrass um because if Lieberman and Bennett do not join them in calling for this for a ban they'll basically say well look they don't even want to ban them that means they're going to sit with them so we'll have to see how that works its way out finally and also very interestingly in an interview today President Herzog said that he will do everything possible to avoid another round of elections including a pardon or a plea deal uh which have not been ruled out. Now what that basic what he's trying to say is again uh if we look at the numbers it doesn't seem like either side have a path to government but what he's basically trying to say is that if we can't make a path to government

16:35 perhaps some creative ideas will be put out there involving a pardon or plea deal and there's only one person who requires a pardon or a plea deal and that's Netanyao and basically the hint there is that he could be the stumbling block between creating a government. In fact, Lieberman himself has said that he has no problem sitting with audit or Eisenot, but they have much more of a problem sitting with Netanyahu. They blame for October 7th and and and [clears throat] various other things.

17:11 Um, so it's interesting that the president should mention that because it's clear if there isn't a uh a a specific uh path to a government that is something that will be brought up, Netanyahu will fight it with everything he has unless there is an extremely good deal and he feels that perhaps another round of elections won't bring anything better. Um but certainly these are extremely interesting developments um as we push towards uh around what is it uh 6 weeks before the elections but we are well and truly into the Jewish holiday period. Um so even those six weeks will not get the attention that they usually do because we have Yon Kipur and Sukkot starting next week. And with that I will go to your questions.

17:59 Um, Rashelle Mand asks, "I think those two filmmakers should be punished. How about you?" Um, I think I I come down a little bit with a professional level, I think they should be ignored as much as possible because uh it's not um if we make if if we punish them, whatever that means, basically uh what you're you're you're making them into martyrs and this will make Israel look like a North Korea Iran trying to stifle descent. Of course, it's a liel. It's a disgraceful liel. It's it's they haven't [clears throat] been able to prove anything. In fact, one of the um soldiers who was uh filmed in in the documentary apparently came forward and said that he his testimony was manipulated and they were offered money depending how uh uh how how serious the allegations were. But at the end of the day, I think we have to look at the bigger picture and we have to say that if we don't want to make our reputation even worse, it is at a bad level. Then I think trying to punish what is

19:02 essentially free speech, it's a liel, it's disgraceful, it's disgusting, but it is free speech. And if we go down that road, um I think it will rebound worse for us. Ann Freeman asks has ship shipping through the Babel Mandab straight being significantly affected yet? I think it's starting to be affected, but obviously if the if the um if the uh the Houthis do actually uh conquer it, then it will be affected. And basically it means that Iran will then be able to affect uh even greater shipping routes because Houthis are Iran at the end of the day. And what this probably is is a play by Iran. Not probably, it is a play by Iran to basically put more and more pressure uh on international shipping lanes, on trade, um perhaps punish uh President Trump at the midterms because they know how much um the price of oil is going up

20:07 and that means the price of gas is going up. Something that President Trump very much tried to get under control and now it's back over $100 a barrel. uh so things are not looking good. So if they do conquer uh the Baban Mandab strait then certainly there can be no or it's significantly less likely that President Trump will be able to get the price of gas down uh before the midterms and that probably will have a significant effect on those elections. [clears throat] Excuse me. Jack Burkowitz asks, "Are you aware of any significant impact on the boycott on the settlers in Judea and Samaran by the 11 European countries in Canada? How is this boycott being effectively managed?

20:47 Whereby doesn't hurt the Palestinians therein? Moreover, it is my understanding that the major shopping of the settlers is done in Jerusalem." Okay, there's quite a few questions. Uh at the moment uh the impact um at the moment as far as I'm aware uh the countries haven't decided exactly how they're going to enact this. They're going to spend a few months uh discussing it. But the fact that they even uh they've even made these announcements is obviously going to have a direct effect because then there will be uh certain companies that won't want to deal with not just with uh any uh uh shops or businesses in in Judea and Samaria in the the West Bank but maybe [clears throat] even with Israel because they don't want to f uh fall foul of this new law and it might be difficult to work with for example bank law me the biggest banker uh in Israel, you know, there's a lot of concern that it could face sanctions and not be able to trade or or work in any of these countries because Bank, like I think all banks in

21:51 Israel does have branches over the green line. So, will they be caught up in this? That could be a disaster if Israel's banking system is effectively boycotted and no companies from any of these countries will be able to do business with, you know, reputable Israeli banks because they might have one or two branches uh over the green line. So certainly there there are different case scenarios um uh at the moment, but it's certainly not going to a a good place. You're right about the fact that it's hurting Palestinians. The majority of businesses in Judea and Samaria employ Palestinians where they get significantly uh many times the wages that they will get in Palestinian Authority businesses and the the majority of businesses especially factories are 80 90 even close to 100% uh Palestinians. that they will lose their jobs. And I think I even saw a statistic that uh that I don't know how many thousands or tens of thousands of Palestinians were effectively lose their livelihood uh

22:53 because of this. Um and by his understanding that the major shop of the settlers is done in Jerusalem. First of all, there are many settlements which are not that near Jerusalem. They're closer to Tel Aviv, to Rano if you're in the Shaman Samaria. So it's not not done in Jerusalem. I don't think it will have an effect on the small businesses um in the settlements. The gushed has a a supermarket chain um and I don't think it will really affect uh that you know the small um sort of corner shops mallets. It it probably won't have too much of an effect because it's not like they get their products straight from the UK or Canada. they come to a port and you know they're they're not really dis you know it's not like the the countries probably know exactly where the pan of pickles or whatever it is is going to um so no the settlers do many shopping or whatever it is within the settlements and and uh and yes also some um Eric so Malcolm was kicked off his

24:00 tour for anti-Israel comments but why doesn't Israel create an education group to educate these performance about the Israel genocide is hurting how Israel's is vowed. Um first of all I think even if you created a group like this and there are plenty of NOS's they wouldn't listen to it. I can't imagine someone like Mmore who is rapidly anti-Israel and even anti-Semitic if we see his previous performances where he dressed up as a Jew um as a greedy Jew. I don't think if the Israeli government approached him and said, "Let's let's give you the facts about the so-called genocide," I can't imagine he would say, "Okay, I'm I'm prepared to listen. These people are not prepared to listen." It's become more and more basically just a way to get attention. Um, and they usually gain a lot more than they lose.

24:49 Yes, he has been kicked off the ed Sheeran tour, but he's now going to, you know, if we look at what was that Irish band, there was an Irish band that basically sung Death to the IDF or whatever it was, and suddenly they became an international sensation playing out crowds all over the world. So, a lot of the time it's not even because they know about Israel, they care about Israel. it's sometimes it it's good for their career and it's also it's uh you know it's just signaling moral signaling to others. So I don't think anything the Israeli government could do uh would educate because there are plenty of organizations like the ADL and others who could educate why these types of things are problematic. Um but clearly they're not going to uh listen at all.

25:45 Giorgio Pelios asks, "Is any possibility Saudi Arabia will sign the Abraham uh agreements or Abraham Accords?" Um, I I think it's certainly a possibility at some point. I think again with this latest episode, Saudi Arabia will understand that at the end of the day, Israel is one of the more dependable partners, certainly in the region. um and it is going to obviously be helping uh quite a lot in the coming days and weeks um its battle against the Houthis and I'm sure Israel as it's shown in every battle that it's fought over the last uh three years that it is very effective um and it will have an impact on on on that particular fight. It's not putting boots on the ground necessarily at this point. Um, but it will certainly help with intelligence and I think the Saudis will once again understand um, you know, what Israel offers and it could lead to uh, getting closer to the uh, to agreeing on the Abraham Accords.

26:44 I think it's unlikely at the moment um just because it you know it it's it's it's difficult to see um that they will join uh the Abraham Accords without something moving on the Palestinian issue that they they've they've made that quite clear that they said that they can't talk about normalization till they see what what I think they used to describe at least as an irreversible step towards Palestinian statehood or the two-state solution or whatever you have. So I don't think that's necessarily going to come uh anytime immediately then who knows these things could move pretty quickly. Um but I think at some point in the future that could happen. There is talk this week in some I think it was even ambassadors somewhere an ambassador somewhere mentioned that Q8 could be the next one to join in the very near future. I don't really have much more to say about that.

27:36 That would be a very interesting development. Q8 is not the most obvious state, but it could be that maybe President Trump has offered them something as he did with the original Abraham Accords. You know, if we look back, UAE received um I think it was military airplanes. Uh Morocco received um support for its um territorial claims to the Western Sahara. I think Bahrain received something. So it could be that Q8 uh been promised something by uh President Trump and that's why they could be joining soon. It'll be very interesting development if Q8 uh do join. Uh but we'll have to wait and see.

28:16 Uh but I don't think Saudis on the cusp of joining anytime soon. But I I do believe at some point in the future that could certainly happen. But certainly it's not going to happen before the elections because the Saudis probably well not probably don't want to give Netanyao any sort of um boost uh coming a few uh weeks before the elections. Um and with that I'd like to wish you all a good night or good morning wherever you are and thank you for your questions and thank you for your participation and I'll see you next week.