How Hezbollah Is Rebuilding with Sarit Zehavi

0:01 Good afternoon and welcome to the Middle East Forums weekly podcast. My name is Lauri Rean and on behalf of MEF, I thank you all for joining today and for your continued support of the critically important work that we do. I once again wanted to take a moment though to recognize the loss of another one of America's great patriots and Zionists, my dear friend Shashana Brian, who I'm sure many of you knew and who served as the senior director of the Jewish Policy Center and editor of InFocus Quarterly. Also having spent three decades at the Jewish Institute for the National Security of America or Jinsa, Shashana's brilliance and passion on all things related to US and Israeli national security will be sorely missed, but her imprint on the US foreign policy and pro-Israel community will endure. Uh I hope she's in heaven with uh Senator Graham and may her memory be a blessing.

0:48 This afternoon we are joined by Sarid Sahavi, the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, who will be providing us information on Hezbollah's extensive tunnel network, which remains one of the most difficult threats facing Israel along its northern border, as well as sharing her insights on the situation in Lebanon more broadly. I do want to share that I met Serit on an MEF mission to Israel just after 107 as she gave us a tour of the northern border and pointed out just how close Hezbollah's presence is to Israel's northern communities and I'm very much looking forward to learning more from her this afternoon regarding the current situation. I'm going to spend the first part of the podcast discussing these important issues with Siri and then we'll open the discussion to audience questions. So if you have one, please do use the Q&A function at the bottom of your screens. I'll do my best to get to as many of your submissions as possible. Today's podcast is being recorded and will be available for future viewing. So, please share the link with those in your networks who would be interested in learning more on this important and given recent events timely topic. Welcome Siri and thank you so much for joining us this afternoon.

1:51 Thank you for having me. Um, so s I wanted to start by asking you to discuss how the Hezbollah threat has evolved since October 7th, the onsad, the onset of Israel's war in Gaza, the the beeper operation, which was brilliant. Um, the assassination of Hassan Nisallah, and the war with Iran more generally. I mean, for instance, while Hezbollah may not be capable of a 107 style invasion in northern uh Israel's northern communities, it still certainly poses an existential threat. And it seems to me that while its rocket arsenal may have been degraded, a significant number do remain and it has these fiber optic drones that are deadly accurate and difficult to detect and stop. So can you share with us how the Iran war has impacted Hezbollah and its ability to rearm um since despite the Islamic Republic's economic troubles, the IDF is still stopping weapons shipments from Syria intended for Hezbollah and Okay. So yes, I would uh divide my answer to two parts. The first part is

2:54 what's the situation today and the second part is truly the pro the potential which is also a problem. So the situation today is that only in the campaign of 2026 Israel killed more than military operatives. We succeeded in pushing away from the border in a length of around 10 kilometers. That's that's very important to what you mentioned about its capability to launch an invasion to the communities next to the border. H IDF is still what we call clearing or neutralizing this area of 0 to10 in inside Lebanon creating this yellow line security zone area. H So this is an ongoing process to neutralize the tunnels to find all the weapons that was hidden there and to make sure there are no military operatives there. it it's not it's not ended yet this process it is still happening as we speak and I can tell you as a person who lives 9 kilometers from the border that we still hear the efforts of the IDF to do that so that's h that's one thing as you said

3:57 the rockets were degragated but it is still holding at least a few thousands of rockets and it is still smuggling the drones are a true problems the drones the small drones looking like eBay drones that can they can just uh add to these drones drones shells either of that they took from anti-tank missiles or RPG shells and things like that or small motiles and attach them to the drones with optic wires. This means that we cannot intercept them electronically and it is also difficult to trace them because they fly very fast and very low and they are very very accurate. But the advantage here is that in order to fly them you need a level of professionality. It's not me and you cannot fly those drones. Okay. So, what Israel had done is to to try to eliminate the cells that are actually launching those drones. And this was done pretty successfully even though there is no 100% in this in this respect. The same with the tunnels in

5:02 the length of 10 0 to 10 kilometers in this security zone that we are now creating. We are finding tunnels every day and we are neutralizing this. But there are areas south of Litani River that clearly there are underground infrastructures there and we are not we didn't maneuver in those places and this is without speaking about areas of the or in Beirut where clearly also there there are lo it's the logistic rear of it's the headquarters of there there are still efforts to be done we had good achievement in the Dhaka in Beirut in the area of all the headquart quarters and they had to move them to different places but it's not again it's not 100% the assessment are that there are there are more in those in those places so this brings me to the question of how what is the potential threat why are we worried because the situation today is that there is a ceasefire now it's good for me my daughter is going to school I start to feel as if I have some

6:06 kind of normality in my daily life but at the same time is putting a lot of efforts in rebuilding its power. This means it is even prioritizing the military rebuilding over the civilian rebuilding of its power. This means as you mentioned the smuggling uh from Syria actually from Iran through Iraq through Syria into Lebanon. This means that even manufacturing facilities that are now being built in different places in Lebanon are not being bombed as we used to in 2025. We we had done that a few times and it is not happening anymore. And also in South Lebanon, we do hear reports of trying to um send its leasian officers to the areas where of South Lebanon to try to find under the debris what was left of its weapons and also to um rebuild its Radwan brigades h again it is not capable of invading

7:08 since IDF is there but the bigger question is okay ceasefire that's now what if we will be forced to leave Lebanon completely and then the Radwan brigades will be able to go to go back to the border line thank you so let's let's spend a little bit more time talking about the tunnel network do we know how much has um in fact been destroyed and how extensive the tunneling is in terms of ending up in northern Israel To me, [clears throat] it's amazing how the IDF is able to find these tunnels and it uncovers massive um caches of of weaponry when it does discover them. Um and you know, when I was up north with you in February of 2025 on the MEF mission, you showed us images of Hezbollah tunnels that um that were actually coming, you know, ending in Israeli territory. Um, so with Israel in in southern Lebanon and and the IDF able to find tunnels in southern Lebanon, do we know h how much has been destroyed?

8:12 And then there is somebody in the in the Q&A who asked if the IDF is using the tunnels in reverse to, you know, to come out in uh parts of southern Lebanon and surprise Hezbollah there. Okay. So the tunnels that you're talking about, the offensive tunnels that I showed you, h are six border crossing tunnels that were found in 2018 2019 and one more that was found in 2024. Uh all of these were either eliminated or blocked. H and no, they are not used by the IDF. H other than that IDF found tons of underground infrastructures whether it's hidden positions uh headquarters launching pads and strategic tunnels in different areas like you can see for instance we found a few villages that below the town there is an underground town which is underground net of tunnels we found this it was published in few towns in south Lebanon in a distance of few kilometers

9:14 from the border and many more were found next to the borderline. So those who were found next to the borderline were not necessarily crossing. These these were what we call approaching tunnels that enabled to launch the the invasion that that they planned secretly without anybody knowing and without uh making border crossing tunnels that can be found by the IDF. So these are the approaching tunnels the as I've said tactical positions which are underground and strategic tunnels which are which were found in a distance of 10 kilometers in average from the border line. There are the area south of what we call the yellow line which is the new security zone of the IDF is an area where IDF is working as we speak to neutralize the tunnel. So the this is an ongoing process and here uh we are very optimistic. Okay. But when we speak about north to the yellow line, uh we didn't maneuver there. So this is wonderland. This is what we call the land of tunnels ofaha. And this is not

10:17 only in south Lebanon. This is in South Lebanon in the areas next to the Syrian border in including border crossing tunnels on the Syrian border to smuggle weapons and in Beirut itself as well the headquarters of in those places you know we bound from the air but since we didn't maneuver we don't know what's in there at least not from open sources. Thank you. It's just it's amazing um the way they they operate. Um, so let me make something specific to what we just learned. Uh, yesterday there were Iranian threats of escalation by telling Hezbollah and the other proxies to get ready for an expanded war. To me, this sounds like desperation on the Islamic Republic's part, but it's still no less threatening to Israel. Um, the State Department also issued a warning to Americans to avoid northern Israel as well as Gaza and the Egyptian border.

11:10 But um you know I I held a podcast last week with Lisa Davari who is an Iran expert and we discussed the fact that at the time the Islamic Republic was specifically avoiding attacking Israel. They were attacking the Gulf nations and US interests across the Gulf but they avoided Israel less you know Israel become unleashed and they apparently were fearing that retaliation. So, what are your thoughts on these latest threats and the seriousness that they pose to Israel's security if in fact Israel does activate I mean, I'm sorry, Iran does activate uh Hezbollah to start again with the flagrant attacks on Israel. Look, h in opposed to the situation that we had in 2023, I think that today the proxies of Iran are no longer a strategic threat to Israel in a sense that you know they cannot launch a huge invasion and uh even with the firepower it's not what it used to be when we discuss for instance h but at the same time h you know even from the

12:15 most personal level the feeling here that it that everything may uh blow up again in in seconds and that maybe tonight it will happen and we will not you know we're not going to to end the night or the the next night or this affect our daily lives here. No doubt it affects our capability to make plans. Uh it affects our capability to go back to normality. It affects our capability to have the tourism industry again as you mentioned if they're not coming up north there is no tourism up north. Um and and if it will happen, which this is it's very unlikely that there will be another round uh some sometime uh this would mean that it will again shut down the routine in many areas of Israel. Okay, whether it's the schools, now it's the summer vacation. So I don't know uh activities for the children any afternoon activity uh whether it's the the business activity like if there are missiles from

13:19 Iran and at the same times rockets from so for instance my staff is not coming to the office because it's too dangerous to drive so the the routine or the daily life will be shut down even though it's not a strategic threat to the very existence of the state of Israel and especially if it will happen from various fronts at the same time. So you know my answer is complex. We are in a much better situation than what we used to have. We did have significant achievements militarily but the threat is not gone because the terrorist groups that don't accept our very existence here. They still exist and they are very much invested in rebuilding their power as we Yeah. So that's actually a good transition to my next question. Um I you know I think that one thing that we've learned from all of these wars and conflicts is that when one leader of an organization whether it be Aay Simoir um Nazalla or Ayatah Ali Kaman you know when they're eliminated there's always

14:21 someone waiting to step in in their place. So what are your thoughts on Hezbollah's current leader um Na Naim name Kasim Name Kasim. So first, by the way, Kamas just nominated his new leader officially. He was the leader, but now officially, and he has very deep ties to Iran. H So this is interesting as well. Naim Kasim is very different from LSA. He's less charismatic. He's weaker than Assah. And this means more involvement of Iran in the daily activity of and in the um decision- making process of like NASA was almost a partner in this company. They trusted him. He has he had a high credit in Ali Ali Kami's house.

15:11 But Naim Kasam is like the untrained child that you need to you still need to educate and and work with him daily. And I think this is what they are doing. That's why the headquarters of the IRGC in Beirut, which is actually the Iranian embassy in Beirut is has even more significant than it used to have and it it was always very significant for the IRGC. It it has even more significance at this time in with regard to Naim Kasm and that's why the ambassador and the embassy itself should be closed completely and the ambassador should go back to Iran. And the fact that it's not happening, it's actually a sign for the weakness of the Lebanese government. And the fact that Iran with everything that happened and you know there are no Iranian flights that are landing in in Beirut in Kari airport anymore and Iranians were kicked out of Beirut. 150 of them were kicked out of Beirut. But some of them are still there. A few hundreds of them are still there. And when they insist on what it's important for them, it is happening and and they

16:13 get what they want. And I think this is what happened on March. They insisted that will get involved and they got what they wanted, but it ended up with a lot of damages to Lebanon. So So let me ask you, so the IRGC is is has a base in in Beirut. Um I'm not sure who's really making the decisions, whether it's um Kasm or the IRGC in terms of what has No, it's not named Kasm, that's for sure. It's Iran. That's so it's Iran. So So where then does um President Ion come in? Because um I don't want to complicate things, but we've got these current negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in particular. And um you know, does President Aon have andor the Lebanese armed forces? Um do they have the will, let alone the ability to help Israel in disarming Hezbollah so that the two countries can finally make peace? um you know how what is where is president if the IRGC is based in Beirut?

17:16 Look, President Town and the prime minister are saying again and again again since the day they were nominated that they are interested in disarming completely one government, one weapon. That's very good and very important statement except it was made 20 years ago and uh since then and I've been in this business for 20 years for the past 20 years on uniforms and without the uniforms and I and I can tell you that unfortunately the Lebanese government is too afraid of a civil war and since it's too afraid of a civil war it is paralyzing the efforts to actually do something effective against h the what what needs to be done is to actually follow theou theou go has a a very good logic it is saying let's have pilot zones that way the Lebanese army will disarm his balam step by step and it already defined three pilot zones that actually in most of them IDF is not even there but it doesn't matter the idea is that the Lebanese army would do

18:18 what it takes to make sure that these zones are empty from any presence now if I'm going tactical for a moment The Lebanese army is saying, "Okay, we deployed there. That's enough." And Israel is saying, "No, it's not enough that you are saying that you were deployed there. What we need to see is how you are taking out the weapons of from the houses and from the civilian infrastructures and from the tunnels and you're not doing that. And since you didn't do that in the past 20 years, we are the one who are doing that in this security zone that we that we started and we established. Now it's your turn.

18:52 And in every place that Israel will evacuate, we want to see you finishing the job because as I've said, this is an ongoing process. And we want to see you making sure that is not going back They are afraid. They are afraid to do that because this would mean that they have to clash with they have to physically confront and is threatening them that there will be a violent confrontation and they are afraid of this confrontation. Adding to all of that the fact that about half of the Lebanese armed forces are Muslim Shiite and it's really difficult to distinguish between those who support and those who aren't which I'm not sure that there are too many. We understand that there are officers in the Lebanese army that are collaborating with the head of the Lebanese army from political reasons is saying that very clearly that he's not interested in confrontation with while is saying very clearly that it is not going to disarm.

19:52 So it's a kind of a catch 22. You need the Lebanese government to be willing to confront. That's it. That's the key. all these words and and and small steps that were done and they had done a few steps but it's far from being enough to truly change the situation and to truly prevent from rebuilding its power in in Lebanon and again Israel is not doing anything in this effort anymore because there is a ceasefire well their arms yeah Israel's arms are being tied unfortunately but what so if if this Lebanese Israeli peace process continues Could that lead, could it trigger a civil war in Lebanon between the LAF or other um pro-western forces, for lack of a better word, and It could. But I must tell you that I hear voices from inside Lebanon that are saying we should not be afraid anymore from a civil war. It's enough. We have to face it and we have to do it and we have to stand strong against I'm very

20:56 happy that there are voices in Lebanon that are saying that. I wish there were more. H we wouldn't know. Look, you know, I my DNA is intelligence. I served with intelligence. We always fail in predicting popular revolutions. Uh it is something that is truly difficult to predict civil wars and things that are coming from bottom up. uh what's the level of um of capability of you know fractions or frictions between and its Muslim Shiite base from the Alma center we don't see enough gaps between the the the public opinion of the Muslim Shia average Muslim Shiites of Lebanon and but there are Lebanese that are claiming that there are widening gaps in this respect and I don't see enough proofs for that if they are widening gaps, so a civil war or not a civil war, a violent clash will be a positive development because it would mean that

21:58 the Muslim Shiites of Lebanon will not stand behind. If these gaps are not widened enough, and as I've said, I don't see enough evidence for that, and I'm just talking about evidence. H yes they may it may develop into a civil war but again Israel cannot help in this anymore because there is a ceasefire and as you said our hands are tied and if we want to proceed the process of the peace process that started and and I'm very supportive of that Lebanon will have to face its future and Lebanon will have to do something against Balah and to and to take steps to stop the situation of the state within a state which is this is something that is completely not being dealt like the schools of of still active and there are areas where is the one who is giving the the humanitarian aid and there are ministers of inside the Lebanese government that are making sure that the budgets budgets of of the Lebanon Lebanese state are going to

23:02 infrastructures all of these should be stopped completely the financial activity of should be stopped completely should be designated as a terrorist entity not only in United States and in some places in Europe, but also in Lebanon itself. And this will bring to a true change. No, I'm glad you said that because I was going to ask you what you wanted to see happen um and a way to knock out uh a way to disarm and destroy Hezbollah. Um I have a long list. [laughter] Do you want to share some of that with us? I mean, what should Israel be doing to help achieve this? What can the US do to help achieve this? Look, I'm very sorry that the freedom of operation in Lebanon was taken away from us because this means that the smuggling of weapons is ongoing and nobody is stopping that except for what the Syrians are catching here and there. And clearly for every truck that is being seized by the Syrian forces, there are at least a few that are not being seized. So I don't want to imagine how many drones were smuggled into this region only in the past few weeks. Uh today we published a video of a convoy of uh tankers of trucks, the

24:08 same as the one that was uh seized with full of drones h on the Syrian Iraqi border at the same place that it was seized just a few days before which is the same place that America left a few months ago. H it used to be an American base there and now it is a legitimate I'm sorry it's not legitimate but allegedly legitimate smuggling route for Iran into Syria from there tobah and today it's a huge convoy of trucks because the Syrians actually put some barriers to check them but it's not going to last for long like they are not organized h you know to check each truck for a long time and you know to deal with huge amount of trucks that are going through this border crossing every day and some of them have weapons and they are getting through. So this is one thing that should happen that we at least will have the freedom of operation if we have intell intelligence uh to attack the smuggling routes and the smuggling efforts of to attack the

25:12 manufacturing facilities of wherever they are in Syria in Lebanon or whatever I don't know in Iraq that that's one thing second from the Lebanese government as I've said I am expecting it to pushbala away from any decision-m process in Lebanon and decision decision making system whether it's the advisor for the Lebanese president for the reconstruction of Lebanon who is abalah member officially it's not a secret everybody know whether it is what we call cleaning the Lebanese army from any collaborators or supporters ofah and everybody know their names uh whether is uh blocking any financial activity of in Lebanon and closing all the infrastructures of state within a state of it's a long process there There's a lot of work to be done and they should start and and you know from there going to the disarmament it will be easier but because they will in in in all systems of the state and then go to the disarmament but

26:14 unfortunately theou started from the disarmament. So, okay, if if this is the Moyu, let's see, let let let's see the Lebanese government actually succeeding with these pilot zones. And for now, even with this, they opposing so many obstacles because they want to see first an Israeli withdrawal and then a disarmament. And we want to see something physical that is truly being done after 20 years of lying to us, including the past year of 2025. Um, Siri, how concerned are you that um Trump will force Israel to completely require the IDF to pull out of Lebanon at some point? I mean, it certainly seemed like a problem a month ago when Iran tied Lebanon to the Iran USOU. And I don't believe everybody really trusts Tom Barack, who seems to play an oversized role for someone who doesn't seem to understand the region. Um, what would what would happen if the IDF were to leave? Because we know that we can't trust an international organization like

27:16 UNIFIL to prevent a rebuilding of Hezbollah's infrastructure. I mean, would would Israel have to abide by something like that or or will it keep this new uh security zone in place? Do you think between Israel and United States? uh especially uh in the past year but uh you know traditionally as well there is a long alliance and deep alliance which we all grateful for and we believe that we should preserve this alliance. If the price of this alliance will be the withdrawal of Israel from the security zone without a functioning sovereignity of the Lebanese government making sure that is not going back there and I've described all the difficulties. This would mean that very quickly the capability of to launch an invasion will come back. This would mean that very quick, very even more quickly, it would mean that the capability of to launch an infiltration of a squad of 15, 20, 50, I don't know, will will be back. This

28:19 would mean that the people, the Israelis that are living next to the border line will see military operatives just on the other side of the fence from their windows. And uh this is a problem with regard to our capability to rebuild those communities and to give them a future because after October 7, we cannot tolerate anymore a situation that our children and mothers h can see the terrorists just from the the kitchen window. This is this is unheard of and we we are not going to tolerate that. So h I don't see how this will happen. You you know you ask me what should happen.

28:57 I think that Israel should draw very specific red lines with regard to this ceasefire and and this time in opposed to what happened 20 years ago to make sure that if anybody cross these red lines with regard to the rebuilding of military deployment in South Lebanon, we are initiating a military operation because we didn't do that between 2006 to 2023 and we ended up with a miracle. The only reason that I am alive here speaking to you is because of a miracle that didn't launch his plan to to invade into Israel in October 2023. And we cannot anymore, you know, rely on miracles. This is clear to all of us Right. Um, we've run out of time, but I just want to follow end with um, you and I had spoken as we were waiting to go live and you mentioned when I was there a couple years ago that you had no intention of leaving the north and someone in the Q&A asked a question about how you can get people back up north to the numbers pre-occtober 7th.

29:57 Um, it it you've also said that you're basically living under the constant sounds of war. So can you just share with the audience um what do you see the north um revitalizing the way it was pre 107 at at some point are you optimistic about that? Uh Israelis have to be optimistic otherwise we wouldn't live here. I believe in the resilience of the Israelis. I can tell you that uh yes many families left but many families also want to come and live here up north and even close to the borderline. the communities next to the border in many cases not all of them but some of them there is diversity between them but some of them were neglected and had difficulties before the war before 2023 and the war only accelerated those processes of abandoned of these communities h security is number one no doubt like as I've said if the the terrorists will go back to defense h

31:00 mothers and and daughters will have difficulty to continue to leave them and this is something we have to make sure that it's not happening. That's one thing. Um we need at the same time I think that uh we need to to provide the people that are living up north not only you know not only offense but also defense. We need to provide them with enough shelters and enough protection. Today the schools for instance are not protected and if there is an escalation they just um cancel schools they close the schools. So this means that the children of the north hardly went to school in the past three years it was on and off on and off all the time and there was no regular school year uh in the past few years and if you add to this COVID so you understand what's the situation here with regard to education.

31:50 Uh so we we need to get to have more uh public areas that are safe that we can have activities for the children the schools and afternoon activities as well. And we need to cultivate the local leadership here to truly bring a change you know to build more neighborhoods and to build more areas uh new areas new neighborhoods. That's a lot of investment by the government. You know I have a long list that I speak about in Hebrew. I don't know if I can get or should get to all these details in English. But the bottom line is that if we will be afraid of an invasion again, none of this will work. No plan, you know, for rebuilding, none of this will work. We we need to make sure that is not on the fence anymore.

32:37 Yeah. Well, on on that note, um we've run out of time. Ser, I can't thank you enough. God bless you for all you do, for living where you live and reporting on it and making everybody aware of what's of what's going on. It's so critically important your work. So, thank you for that. I thank everybody in the audience for joining. Please do share the recording of this far and wide. I think it was important and informative. Um, we will not be having Israel Insider on on Wednesday. So, everybody please take note of that. And I wish you all a wonderful afternoon. Again, thank you Siri. Thank you to the audience. Thank you for having me. It was a pleasure. Bye-bye.