Special MEF Briefing: Is This the End of the Islamic Republic?

Description

Iran is closer to regime collapse than at any point since 1979.

In this urgent Middle East Forum briefing, Gregg Roman convenes Middle East Forum experts to assess whether Iran’s nationwide protests mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic , and what must happen next if the regime begins to unravel.

Protests have spread nationwide. Iran’s economy is in freefall. Security forces are exhausted. For the first time in decades, Iranians are no longer demanding reform , they are demanding the end of the Islamic Republic itself.

Drawing on decades of MEF research and real-time reporting, this briefing examines the regime’s weakening grip on power, fractures inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the historic role of Iran’s Grand Bazaar, and why the tools that kept the regime alive in 2009, 2017, and 2022 may no longer be enough. The panel also outlines what the United States and its allies can do now , without boots on the ground , to support the Iranian people.

This emergency briefing features Middle East Forum experts:

Michael Rubin , Director of Policy Analysis
Daniel Pipes , Founder and Chairman
Jonathan Spyer , Director of Research
Benjamin Baird , Director of MEF Action
Mardo Soghom , Senior Iran Analyst
Shay Khatiri , Writing Fellow

Chapters

00:00 to Iran Enters Its Most Dangerous Moment Since 1979
01:18 to Nationwide Protests and the Bazaar Turns Against the Regime
04:33 to Cracks Inside the IRGC
08:36 to The Revolutionary Guard as an Economic Empire
13:04 to Why This Uprising Is Different From Past Protests
17:54 to What the Collapse of the Islamic Republic Would Change
22:42 to Security Forces Refusing Orders and Regime Fatigue
26:23 to Why Momentum Is Shifting Toward the Protesters
33:15 to Sanctions, Congress, and Immediate U.S. Leverage
36:57 to Iran’s Minorities and the Myth of Fragmentation
39:20 to The Limits of Repression
42:30 to What Washington Must Decide Now

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