Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:01 Hello and good evening from Israel for another Israel insider with me, Ashley Perry, advisor to Middle East forum Israel's office. Um, as usual, I will be talking uh for around 15 minutes, maybe a little bit more, and then I will take questions. So, if you have any questions, please put them in the Q&A box. Please do not put them in the chat. Uh, unfortunately have to say it every week because there's at least one or two questions in the chat. So, please put it in Q&A because if not, I may well not see it. I won't be able to uh answer those questions.

0:41 Um, tonight we're going to start with uh Iran. Um and it seems again we're on the cusp of another agreement um on top of theou which died and then was resurrected. Uh very unclear what exactly is going on. What it seems to happen over the last few weeks, few months at least from my analysis is there just seems to be different uh levels in the Iranian leadership. Uh we've talked about it before. There's a more moderate quote unquote um leadership of foreign uh ministeri who seems to want negotiations or at least seems to be leading negotiations.

1:26 He seems to be the voice that the Trump administration is speaking to that uh the US envoys are speaking to. But then you have uh the revolutionary guards. You also have the supreme leader. It's unclear exactly who's in charge and at what level, but we we seem to have had an agreement or the Americans thought they had an agreement three weeks ago similar to what appears to be uh signed at any moment uh tonight. But then out of nowhere, the Iranians decided to attack uh once again shipping in the street of Pomos and it blew it up. So let's first of all go through uh exactly what's what's going on from the Iranian point of view. This is an agreement signed with Oman. It's clear that the US are involved and everyone knows the US is involved and President Trump has said the uh the Americans are involved but again depending who you speak to, the Iranians like to deny it and other places they admit it. But at the end of the day, the agreement calls for a

2:28 ceasefire. And the only party that's really firing apart from the Iranians are the Americans. Um, so it's a bit absurd to say that there's a ceasefire agreement without uh the other party uh involved. Um so what what is the agreement that seems to be unfolding and according to American officials could even be signed um today, Wednesday, American time. Obviously in Israel the day is waning but in America they talk the number of hours but uh I'm not sure if it's uh if it's going to be today or tomorrow but what seems to be agreed is there's going to be a 60-day temporary arrangement where inbound traffic through the street of Hmuz will be through Iranian waters and outbound will be through Omani waters. again should be stressed that this is pretty much what what was agreed um 3 weeks ago um but again was blown up. The most important part at least from uh the rest of the world's point of view is at this

3:31 point at least there will be no tolls and no fees. The Iranians said that that uh that position will not be taken by them. They will uh create some sort of total system fees. They even talk about voluntary quote unquote uh system which clearly will not be voluntary. Um and there will be mine clearing on the so-called median lane uh between the two uh between the two countries which at the moment is full of mines from uh Iran because they didn't want um shipping going through that. It's clear that well again according to the agreement uh the mines themselves should be removed and then uh the median lane could be used uh in the future after the 60 days. Now there is talk that it would take far more than 60 days to demine that area. So perhaps that uh the 60 days is perhaps an unrealistic uh timetable but we'll have to wait and see exactly um what's going to happen uh with that. The US is confident at least

4:39 at this point as I said as opposed to previous that the Iranian leadership at all levels is going to stick to this agreement or at least agrees to the principles of this agreement. there is confidence that it's not just people like the foreign minister but actually the revolution in Gaz all the way up to the supreme leader Musha Ki uh and that's why there is some optimism uh from the US specifically DC that this agreement will snit we'll have to wait and see exactly what's going to happen there but certainly um it's it's a it's a step to opening up the street of Homos uh Donald Trump has talked many many times that this is absolutely essential for him um because of the price of uh oil because much of it goes through that that area and um it's been rising ever since America had to bring the Iranians back to the table by the uh oper military operations. uh there was that

5:42 threat as we know by President Trump to really up the anti- major operations and it seems that's what brought them back to the table along with other interlocators from Saudi Arabia from Pakistan from Qatar and others it seems like for now at least again you know I can say there will be a ceasefire and you know everything will be fine but we know with Iran you never know what's going to happen so you know but there is confidence in the US that uh that at least there's you know going to be a return to this ceasefire. The Iranians have said that one of their major conditions is a return to theou and let's not forget this is theou which um President Trump confidently explained is dead. Uh so we'll have to wait and see whether some of the other elements of theou uh will uh you know return to the table.

6:38 The Americans are hoping or expecting um that uh the nuclear issue will now return uh to the front uh as the straight of Palmer at least temporarily is going to be pushed to the back because there is some sort of agreement but we'll have to as I said wait and see there. In Lebanon, things are heating up uh for the first time since June. Uh Israel has um uh resumed um precise strikes in many parts of southern Lebanon. This is in response to uh Hezbollah's uh ceasefire violations. Um the question is is beyond the initial response by the F. What's going to happen next? The IDF hierarchy, certainly from the top, wants a very strong uh response, an overwhelming response, and they've sent that message straight to the political leadership in Israel. Um, but at the moment, they haven't received a response. They are

7:41 waiting for the approval uh from the political level. Alongside this, the IDF is extremely disappointed so far how the pilot system has worked. We we talked about that before. the pilot system where Israel will uh retreat uh from uh two main areas in southern Lebanon to give the Lebanese army to come in and infrastructure and that's supposed to then if that was successful move on to the next phase and more areas more pilot schemes etc etc at the moment the word from the IDF is that the Lebanese army when it's taken over an area that the that the IDF was treated for. It's really not doing anything significant.

8:27 They do a little bit just for show, a little bit of window dressing, but at the end of the day really at the moment so far the IDF is very disappointed and again that message has been pushed up to the political level and they are waiting to see what the response is going to be. The reason why there probably isn't a significant response yet from the political establishment is because of the ongoing talks in Rome today. 11 uh the Lebanese and Israeli delegations met in Rome. Um while uh there was some progress uh the uh discussions were ended earlier early uh than were expected by uh Israel ambassador to the US Lightner who basically was very angry about the leaking the incorrect leaking as was reported by the Lebanese side and they they wanted to show that there was discontent by that uh discussions are supposed to Ariel tomorrow and I'm sure they will. Um, so it's in my analysis

9:31 what's going on in Rome will have not just a major impact and eventually comes to some sort of understanding and agreement in Lebanon. it's having an immediate impact uh with what um is happening on the ground in uh southern Netherland because as I said the IDF, the military, the defense establishment wants a very strong response to show that they cannot uh violate the ceasefire and just uh expect a relatively mild response. So we'll have to wait and see if it happens during the talks probably or it might happen after the talks and we'll have to wait and see because a lot obviously at the end of the day while Rome is important uh DC is even more important and um and Netany probably won't act forcefully or in an overwhelming uh manner until he gets at least some sort of understanding and approval uh from President Trump. and Netanyahu himself came out with a statement today that said he while he respects the US and the greatest friend of Israel ever is President Trump, it's

10:33 up to him who decides um on Israel's future and Israel's existence on Israel's defense etc etc. Sometimes, you know, that there's a saying that, you know, they protest too much. And that pretty much addresses the fact that uh if if you're mentioning that, it's probably because it's very much a part of your decision-m process and it's clear as much as I would like to think. Um really you know messages from DC will decide uh on the level of response uh to these uh ceasefire um violations. Um in Gaza there's a very interesting development.

11:14 Uh we've talked a lot about how agreements and understandings uh the the key part to them is the sequencing what happens and when. We we we looked at in Lebanon that uh you know once Israel's confident um that an area couldn't be taken over by his blood lets the Lebanese army and that was part of the agreement in in Gaza. The key part is Kamas disarmament and Israel uh retreat and the question is uh what comes first and at what level? What I mean by that is some have basically said that they will disarm. Um although they have caveed that by saying that that doesn't include small arms and reportedly they have distributed many many small arms.

12:01 And when I say small arms I'm talking about AK-47s and rifles and things like that. They've distributed them um as if you know it's part of a police force. Israel does not see that as disarming. It's not just heavy weapons. It's not just tunnels. It's also smaller weapons. And at one point it seemed that the border of peace uh was uh claiming that Israel should retreat after or during uh uh you know that some process was in you know was in action uh during the process not after the process. But it does seem that Israel uh was angry about that and made their case uh to the war of peace that then rewarded it and said that Israel retreat after the disarmament uh process. So it seems that Israel won that diplomatic uh victory and it seems that they will not be moving until um until there is a disarmament which is which is happening for them. Obviously, the political schedule in uh in Israel with elections coming up means it's

13:05 highly unlikely uh that Netanyahu will want to see too much retreat, especially with Kamas still armed in the leadup to the election as he fights for his political life trying to recoup some of his lost voters who have lost confidence in him, especially his right-wing uh voters and and we've talked about that in the past. The right-wing vote is going to be key. However, many of them uh they cross over to the other side even though there are parties which certainly are right-wing on the other side um will decide you know who who wins these elections who gets the 61 seats or if either side will get 61 seats. So to try and hold as many rightwing support from bleeding over to the other side and obviously as as little retreat as possible will serve that purpose.

14:01 Moving further over to the uh political plane in Israel there's been quite a rash of new parties uh released in recent days and most of them appear to be in that space in between the blocks. When I when I talk about the blocks I'm talking about the current coalition and the current opposition. Now the terms right, left and center, I wouldn't say that they're meaningless because all like to use it, especially Natinaro likes to call the other side leftwing or or things like that. But it's very hard to say that when you're actually being attacked from the right by many members of the opposition like a big door lead who frequently attacked Natinos for agreeing uh making agreements with Lebanon for not acting stronger in Gaza and Iran etc etc. So these these terms are are less important these elections because there isn't really a left and right. There are left and right but these those issues are less important when you know because usually they're in reference to Palestinian state into

15:03 withdrawal from territories. Those issues are not relevant in these elections. Um but what we are seeing is a rash of new parties in between the blocks. people who are disappointed by Netanyahu, who are disappointed or angry uh with the ultra orthodox um um but are are not necessarily with the opposition. First of all, we saw a new party of US Kendo who'd already started a party called Minoimnikim, those who do uh service, national service every year, uh annual service I should say, in the army. Um, anyone who who's been following the situation in Israel or has family in Israel, people of army age will know that some people have done hundreds of days of milowim annual service and they're angry about the situation. They're angry about the ultraorththodox deferment, etc., etc.

16:00 So, he started a party. He has now joined Luther Tropper who has who sat with um Benny Gance for many years. He's a well-liked politician. Both of them are wellliked and they've decided to join hands to try and raise themselves above the actual threshold. Some surveys say they will, some surveys say they won't. But what's interesting is now that there appears to be a third block. There's the opposition block, there's a coalition, and now there seems to be uh parties in the middle. Benny Gance, if he passed the electoral threshold, would be there because he quite simply said, "I'm not ruling anything out." He will prefer Netanyahu to leave political life. He prefer not to sit with him because he'd been uh you know um he sat with him before and and that didn't work out well. Um but he hasn't ruled it out as opposed to many others in the block like Daddy Eisenot um Avid Libermani Bennett and Yola Pit. Tonight we heard a hint or more than a hint that there's

17:02 going to be a new party possibly released tomorrow or at least early next week of former ambassador to the UA and DC Gillard Odan with Yuli Edelstein and I'm sure there'll be other new names as well. This is again a rightwing party which is not happy with the current coalition. Um, Gilad Odan is a likerstein was in the Likood up until recently. If we remember, he was the one who was kicked out from his position as head of the uh, defense of foreign affairs committee because it was felt that he wasn't cotoing enough to the uh, ultra orthodox party and that certainly wasn't um, or you know wasn't what Natio wanted. So he was fired from his position to be replaced by Boismouth. uh that they tried to get some sort of indicement law. In the end, it did not work out. But Julie Edstein basically it was only a matter of time before he left the party and these two relative

18:04 heavyweights both of them were at least at one point very very popular appear in the liquid. Edstein came first once in their primaries. Giladan has whenever he's run in the primaries in in the past has always been in the top five. So, these are in theory at least very popularly could formerly could uh members. Um, and I'm sure that they will probably do better than Hendle and Chopper, especially if they bring some other uh big heavyweight names. Again, they're probably not going to reach double figures, but they increase that middle block, that third block, which basically means that they're in play in theory for both sides. I have to wait and see exactly what they say. Can they sit with the ultra or the blocks will they refuse to? What does that mean for Netanya? What does that mean for the block? What does that mean for coalition negotiations? Obviously, many of those questions will only be asked after the elections, but it certainly gives Israelis who are maybe angry or disappointed about this, you know, we

19:06 we're not going to sit with this one or we're not going to sit with that one or we're in this block and that block. There is an interesting uh opening up of a third block. Another interesting move today, another liquid member who was extremely against the enlistment uh process which would have basically meant a blanket deferral for um ultraorththodox students not to go to the army was Danny Lewis. He consistently voted against the government on that issue. He is another one who decided Li could was no longer his natural home and today um he uh it was released that he is now joining Avid Lima's Israel Betenu. Both of them came out and said that this is a natural home for him. someone who is right-wing but who is liberal on religious issues and believes that every Israeli should serve principles that aidman's bet have long stood for and it seems like a natural um match even Netanyahu at this point is understanding as much as he would like

20:07 the agenda to be elsewhere he's beginning to understand even more and more obviously due to his incessant polling is constantly polling and he's understanding that a big grievance amongst his base or his soft base that's leaving him is the fact that he was too soft on the ultra orthodox and even he is now coming out and saying something which he certainly didn't say even a week ago let alone in the last few months or last few years that every ultra orthodox who is not uh learning full-time should go to the army now that doesn't sound like the most extraordinary statement to make but for prime minister nino it is certainly something he's never said before. It angered the ultra orthodox. Probably doesn't go as far as many of his former supporters would like, but it shows great movement and an understanding that this is an issue that quite simply will not go away from him. And that's probably one at least of the barriers um to his stunted support.

21:11 He's been in the low 20s now for quite a while. According to many polls, Eisenot has already passed him. Um, again, it's not so important who wins, who gets the largest amount of seats. It's who is able to put together a government. Uh, so Netinaro is very cognizant of the fact that this is an Achilles heel from him. Um, he's trying to move on it. He's trying to bring some in. Obviously, there's anger from the ultraorththodox parties. Um but it just shows that despite Nitino wanting to move away from the ultra orthodox enlistment issue wanting to talk about other things wanting to paint the opposition uh delegitimize even demonize and they're going to be supported by the out parties they need yolan who is more leftwing things like that the ultra orthodox issue hasn't gone away we see almost daily demonstrations riots um and vis of condemnation from the official uh ultra orthodox leaders. So Metao understands

22:16 that it's not going away and he had to say something. This is probably as far as he can go at the moment. We'll have to wait and see if he goes any further. If he understands again, he needs to move more towards those who have left him. But a lot of people say, well, if that's your view, why didn't you come out and say the last uh three years and and only now we're in elections? So some would argue it's a little bit cynical but that election period but it's certainly poised to something that despite people's predictions and it still may be true that the security issue defense will come up again and again and it will be the issue of the campaign at the moment Odan Hendel tropo edstein liieberman and now are all talking about the enlistment issue. It seems to be the agenda at least for now and we'll have to see if that has legs until the elections. Uh obviously it's not what Netanyah would want, but it's certainly a lot it's gaining a lot of focus across the political spectrum. So with that, I'm

23:19 going to go to questions. There's still time if anyone else wants to uh put in any questions, but the first question is from Eric Sokov. How concerned is Israel about the socialist anti-Israel candidates winning US elections? of why isn't Israel more actively defending their policies in the US? Well, that there's a few different questions there. Firstly, Israel is concerned about the wins by democratic socialists. What we've got to understand is that yes, uh especially I I can't remember his his name Abdul something and say or something who won a democratic primaries. Let's not forget these are primaries. These are not the actual elections. and uh President Trump at least came out and said it's great for his party because they're going to beat this communist and it's going to be much easier and and the Republicans are going to hold the state etc etc. So it could be a blessing in disguise because it might make them unelectable.

24:16 If that happens, then the bubble will have been burst. But the true test will be when the actual elections come around, especially in swing states. Obviously, a Democrat that wins in a very hard blue state is going to win probably regardless of how far left they are. But in those swing states, it it it could be uh you know, it it could really shine the lights on how strong support there is for these uh so-called uh socialist uh Democrats. Um they'll have to wait and see on the elections and why Israel isn't uh defending their policies near well they're trying to uh there is quite a budget to do so they are trying to do a lot but you know it it it pels into insignificance to the Qatari budget to what they're doing in Alazer even there are uh Chinese influencers or even Americans who are based in China who are using their influence and their very deep pockets. There are many, many state

25:18 actors, non-state actors that are spending, outspending Israel by many, many times. And there's probably not much Israel can do. Um, it is trying its best and is trying to get across um its viewpoint and its world view and why it's doing it at the moment. It doesn't appear to be working. There's there's a very uh specific moment that's happening around the world. Israel is painted as the ultimate evil. We saw that um even with with the Moroccan infiltration into the Spanish enclave uh sweater in the um uh northern most northern tip of North Africa. We saw blame coming not just from you know fringes we saw from major influences and we even heard hints of it from within the Spanish government. So when Israel is blamed for even for things that have nothing to do with it, it's very hard for it to get in an open sphere uh like the uh like the US. Uh Georgius Pios

26:22 asked, who is more probable to win elections in Israel this moment? Um there is there isn't really winning elections uh in Israel. It's not uh it's not as simple as that. It's not two parties or even three parties and it's clear who's going to rule. Even on election day, it's unlikely when we get up, you know, when we get the first results, it's unlikely we'll know for sure uh especially with the current constellation who is actually going to end up winning and forming a government because that's really how you win an election is those that can uh the person who can form a government. At the moment it doesn't seem like the Nintendo block on its own has any path to it 61. The most it's steady in any serious poll is low 50s. There is there are polls from channel 14 which is an extremely uh pro natinaro channel which which shows that they do have a path to to over 60 but that's a real outline. Most other polls um are showing that it's in the low 50s.

27:22 The question is whether the other block uh is able to get over 61. Very very few um polls show that they're able to get over 61. They're usually around 58, 59, 60. Every now and again there's a 61, but it depends who you include in that 61. Then uh outside of those two blocks, we have the Arab parties who are not necessarily considered part of either block. Uh remains to be seen what will happen with Ram. There's a lot of talk. Will they be part of the government? Will they not? the Netanyahu's book is certainly trying to press the image of the other side being reliant on uh Ram uh for rule. Um but now we have all these interesting new parties even if each of them get four or five they are playing to a certain extent in the same area. They're trying to attract the same uh voter. Um, so it it might be hard for them both to get over the electoral threshold, but if they do, that changes the game. It could be that in the end, as they're all pretty much on the right,

28:26 center right, um, that maybe if they're offered enough, if they're given enough uh, you know, uh, of their policies that maybe they could join a rightwing uh, government or they could be enough to tip it towards the opposition. again they could end up being the kingmakers. We could once again see a situation where a party with bing votes like we did in the Bennett laid era uh having the balance of power maybe demanding even the prime ministership. We saw a prime minister with I think five or six seats. Um maybe we could see that again uh with these uh kingmakers. is they will have a very strong hand if they get a nice amount of seats and if they could in theory go to either side they have the leverage to basically demand almost anything which is what Bennett did and that's how he became uh prime minister last question before we go interesting observation on the third block next to opposition coalition which parties do you see as part of the third block that could work with both opposition coalition again at the moment Hendel endstein and others are basically saying

29:34 they, you know, they're talking tough on the ultra orthodox issue because they know that is key and also it's safe to start talking about security issues, land and territory, etc. could lose them some votes. You know, they might get protest votes from the center or the center left, whereas they could also get right-wing votes. So, it's always safe because there's, you know, much broader agreement on the ultra orthodox issue. That's why they're leading on it. Um but it's again uh I don't think you'll find either of them saying 100% sure we will not sit with anyone in the current coalition at least and Edstein I don't see them saying that Hend and and Tropa I don't think have said anything close to that. Uh so at the moment they're the ones in the third block as I said Benny Gans who's become almost completely irrelevant also sits there. Um and I think that's it. everyone else has pretty much made uh their case and then they sit where they sit and everyone

30:36 knows where they sit. Um but there could be others. Um there's another um possible party of someone uh called Offer Winter who's very wellliked especially national religious community who at some point is expected also to come in. He is very right-wing but he's also not a great friend and ally of Netanyahu. So again, he could be in play and he could also be part of that third block. Probably less likely because he's he holds more right-wing views uh than pretty much anyone in the opposition block, but again there could be personality differences here. And as I said, Offer Winter is not a great lover of Netanyahu. Um so that could well be a factor. With that, I would like to thank you for your questions and participation. And uh I will be here next week. Alex Selski will be filling in for me. But I hope to see you in two weeks time. And thank you again and have a good evening.