The Mecca Agreement and the Middle East’s New Alliance Map with David Wurmser

0:01 Good afternoon and welcome to the Middle East Forums weekly podcast. My name is Lauri Rean and on behalf of MEF, I thank you all for joining today and for your continued support of the critically important work that we do. This afternoon, I'm very happy to be joined by David Wormser, the executive and founding member of the Deli Global Analysis Group, a firm specializing in geopolitical risk analysis and mitigation for companies from the United States, Europe, Japan, and India. David has also served in a number of government positions, including as senior adviser to the then US National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton, senior adviser to US Vice President Dick Cheney, senior adviser to under secretary of state John Bolton, and as a consultant for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Post 911. David's resume is extensive and impressive, and his expertise on all things Middle East foreign policy, terrorism, and US national security and defense is expansive and profound. Please do follow his important work. Dave is joining us this afternoon to share his insights on the new Mecca agreement signed two weeks ago among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, and what it means for an

1:04 everchanging Middle East landscape, as well as US and Israeli national security interests. I'm going to spend the first part of the podcast discussing these important issues with Dave and then we'll open the discussion to audience questions. So, if you have a question for Dave, please use the Q&A function at the bottom of your screens and I'll do my best to get to as many of your submissions as possible. Today's podcast is being recorded and will be available for future viewing. So, please share the link with those in your networks who you believe would be interested in learning more on this very important and timely topic. Welcome Dave and thank you so much for joining us this afternoon.

1:36 Well, thanks. It's always a pleasure and it's an honor, too. Thank you. Um, so Dave, I think it would make sense if you spent the first uh few minutes just sharing with our audience what the MECA agreement actually says and does before we delve into its broader implications on the region. Um, for instance, while it seems to provide for a NATO article 5 type of defense pack that would require each of the signitories to come to each other's defense if and when attacked, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had have they have an existing bilateral mutual defense pack that was signed almost a year ago.

2:08 And Pakistan never came to the Saudis defense during the various strikes on its territory from Iran and its proxies. And neither did they come to the Saudis defense when the Houthis attacked 2 days after signing this Mecca agreement. So, how do you see this playing out from a practical standpoint? And and also if you can touch on what each of the countries might be gaining by joining this alliance because their interests don't seem to be at all aligned in strategy or defense. Right. Well, I these are the critical questions. Uh first of all, it's really an agreement. You have to look at it from sever several different levels. One is uh exactly what you just said, which is look, they agree to all this. There are provisions of mutual defense.

2:48 They're very proud of the fact that there's an article five uh type uh clause in here. Article 5 is a NATO clause that essentially commits all members of NATO to defend any NATO member of NATO that's been attacked. It's a little more murky actually in NATO, but still that's the bottom line is that that an attack on one is an attack on all and and and therefore all should respond. And of course, we've already seen that violated by the Houthis attacking the Saudis uh over the last week or two. Uh and nothing has happened in response. Uh so right off the bat, there's a gap between rhetoric and uh and reality. And that that's a tradition in Arab and Middle Eastern and Islamic political thought. uh unfortunately the word amir which is the king he's also the guy who says he decrees but that also in Arabic signals doing so you had agreements in various Arab leagues against Israel for example

3:51 where they decreed that they will develop a nuclear bomb to destroy Israel in 1948 and then they all went home and they never you know the the doing was the thing rather the saying was the thing not the doing and I think that some of it is that but I I would treat it more seriously viously than just that. So to go to the next level, it's it what was what was uh the meaning of the agreement I think like so many agreements in the Middle East, it is a snapshot of strategic of the strategic environment, the strategic assumptions, the strategic stature of players and the strategic threats that players face. Now obviously we see uh all three of them have in the past uh been in some way, shape or form threatened by Iran. Uh Pakistan probably the least of them. Uh uh Saudi Arabia the most of them. Uh Turkey the sometimes of them. Uh so uh so you do see sort of a a mutual sense of threat. But I actually do not believe

4:53 this agreement is primarily about Iran because at the end of the day strategically right now the real threat Saudi Arabia uh Pakistan and Turkey face is well Saudi Arabia let's put that aside because that goes to the third level of varying strategic interests on the sec on on this level uh right now what what what is uh faced by Turkey and Pakistan is India. We forget that India is a is not only an enemy of Pakistan.

5:27 We all know it's an enemy of Pakistan. They fought many wars. They just fought a war just very recently over the last year. Uh bloody as it was only short. Uh but there's also uh the Turkish Pakistani competition sorry Turkish Indian competition. Uh already a decade ago, Indian intelligence was arrest Indian police were arresting uh Turkish intelligence operatives in India trying to fment uh an antifada of the 200 million Muslims. Now again this is not only in Jamu and Kashmir and the separatist Muslim acclaimed province in the northwest. it was among the 200 million Muslims that live in Bombay and Kolkata and so forth. So this you know and you can imagine an uprising of 200 million Muslims. Well this is not a minor uprising. It's not even an antifa like Israel faced. It is a civil war. So India caught Turkey trying to fulment

6:30 civil war in India and ever since there's been great tensions and you see it in the relationships with Afghanistan where there's a real great game not between Russia and England like it was 150 years ago but between India and Turkey over Pakistan not Pakistan over over Afghanistan and so forth. So we have to understand two of the three people join together to make it anti-Indian and there's another element to it is it ropes the Saudis in to that because it also splits Saudi Arabia from the UAE which is one of India's main allies and the second thing is it does is it challenges the Israeli Indian reproshma and strategic relationship that's emerging this this quadripartite strategic relationship ship. Remember in the month before this agreement was signed, you had uh an agreement between Greece and India to provide onion missiles to to uh Greece. You had the Israelis signing defense contracts with

7:34 Greece. Israel and India signing defense contracts. The UAE was exposed as having brought in Iron Dome missiles to protect it and the Israelis were working with them. So you had this real strategic alliance emerging and this is in this is uh Turkeykey's uh answer to that which is to try to split that alliance up by a counter alliance which brings us then to Saudi Arabia. Why are they involved with this? Well, as I mentioned, they're now kind of in a strategic competition to be the lead strategic player with the UAE.

8:09 You saw that in Yemen when Yemen had set up very effectively a strategic attack on the Houthis by galvanizing the tribes in South Yemen, creating a co confederation of tribes and various actors in South Yemen as well as Sootra Island to essentially bring South Yemen under the UAE, Israeli uh Indian Greek, Somali land orbit to essentially isolate Houthis. and seize control of protecting the passage through the Babalamandeb Straits. So, Kotra Island really is a commanding structure there. Uh, and the Saudis rather than see the UAE take the lead strategically in the peninsula sabotaged that, dismantled that alliance, threatened the UAE with invasion if they didn't back off and abandon their allies in South Yemen. And it fell apart, which then left the Saudis fully exposed to the Houthi. So who do they turn to? Turkey has assets with Islamist forces in Yemen. They've

9:13 been working very hard in the Horn of Africa and in Yemen to develop Islamist forces under a Muslim Brotherhood framework. Now Saudi Arabia doesn't like that, but it it is more threatened by the Houthis and it didn't want the Yemen the UAE to take the lead. So essentially that brings them already into some quasi alignment with Turkey. Uh I think what it really represents is Saudi Arabia surrendering. It doesn't believe that the western and I know that uh uh some of your comrades in the Middle East forum have written this and I think they're completely correct that the confidence in the American protective umbrella is collapsing and they feel if they have nobody protecting them first of all they're exposed to Turkey so they better make their peace with their enemy and the second thing is they're threatened by Iran but how can they restrain Iran? America's not able to do it right now or not willing to do it.

10:11 They see Iran surviving this war in a more dangerous state and more revengeful state than they were before. So who do you turn to? You turn to China to re in uh reign in Thran. And that's a quid proquo that that that that you essentially repro between Riad and Beijing in exchange for which Beijing reigns in Tehran. And I think that's the hidden actor in this alliance which is China. We're getting sort of to the third level of how how these things are different in interest. Uh all of them are if you're seeking to isolate India obviously China is benefited by that but also critical for that. So in many ways what we're seeing is Turkey and Pakistan. Pakistan always was but Turkey is becoming in my view primar primarily uh aligned strategically with China and that leaves Saudi Arabia with that choice as well and I think you're seeing

11:14 them essentially shifting toward China. protect us from tan will go along with this larger structure that's emerging and uh we may not agree with everything with uh with Turkey but nonetheless right now that serves [clears throat] Saudi Arabia strategic purposes. So when you look at it that way practically it doesn't mean each one's going to run to the other to defend them but it means that there is a strategic shift underway in the region that this encapsulates that this essentially codifies and rather than being operative it is more descriptive in some ways and that has severe implications because I mentioned China and of course Turkeykey's big role right now is to try to sub subordinate North Africa to Turkish strategic design and I think Turkeykey's very disappointed that Egypt has not joined this alliance and I think it's very very good that Egypt has not but they were hopeful because they essentially believe they've already uh cowed Egypt into submission. They

12:18 thought essentially the Egyptian government already realizes that most of the rank and file of Egyptian military as well as its society are already fallen to the Muslim Brotherhood. So they thought they were cutting a deal with Aizi that you survive nominally you remain the head your generals have your privileged position but in essence the country is beginning to become a proxy and answer to Turkish strategic leadership. Uh and I think it was a little bit of a shock for the Turks that Egypt didn't joined. They're not there yet. And I think it had more to do with Saudi Arabia than not surrendering to Turkey. uh because Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has always seen Egypt as their primary threat. So I don't think they really wanted them in the alliance. But nonetheless, you see the strategic direction this is going.

13:07 Then the last element is China. If you if you see this going on in North Africa with the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey, you wonder what's going on underneath. First of all, the Horn of Africa. Horn of Africa. Of course, we're seeing Turkey being very aggressive, very strong, and that brings up again Yemen and the Houthis and and and all that sort of stuff. But the second thing is right under that you have China with the belt with the uh Great Lakes belt, which is the essentially the gold mine of the world for all critical raw materials, especially rare earth minerals. And uh uh this essentially strategically secures Africa for China. If North Africa becomes dominated by Turkey, essentially Turkey is the e is the western end of the belt and road and its connection to North Africa which then protects Africa to the south of that. So I think these are the big picture movements that are codified by the agreement rather than the operational It's it's fascinating, David. It's much more complicated than I think most

14:09 people would would read on the surface and you've tied in a lot of um you know bringing China into the UAE. I'm not sure that you know a lot of people have thought about it in that context. It's fascinating. Um what I haven't heard you mention yet and what I'd like to turn to is Israel. Um so where is Israel and all of this? I mean it seems to me that Israel appeared to be the strong horse post 107. obviously not on 107, but um militarily it it you know it it really I I I was hoping that the Saudis would look at Israel and say, you know, it's time to join the Abraham Accords. Um I I I think that this alliance seems to me to make that less likely. What are your thoughts on that? Again, given the Abraham Accords and and Israel's alliance with the UAE, Bahrain and and Morocco, you know, one of the things that's al always stunning about Saudi Arabia is they tend to put short-term strategic interests ahead of longer term strategic planning and interests. And I think that leads them to several major strategic blunders that are catastrophic. went the

15:12 big one of course was 9/11 which was appeasing the various forces underneath that led to al-Qaeda which then led to 9/11 and I I I think they they really made a major strategic blunder trying to externalize their internal threats maybe you can even go back to the 60s and 70s is the deal with the wulama the religious leadership to say okay you let us rule but we give you the education system and the external internal madrasa structure to the awakening shakes to the more radical shakes and that ultimately led to the radicalization of Pakistan and other countries and also to the radical threat of al-Qaeda arising. So you can see these this constant pattern of of Saudi strategic uh fumbling that for the short-term gain that leads to long-term disaster for them. And I think this is one of them that they they really are missing the long-term picture. Their future does not lie with the neotomantoman, neo-mayad, Sunni uh

16:16 convulsive network anchored to the north. It lies in weathering that along with the UAE. Uh so they should really instead of looking at the UAE as a rival uh do what they used to do is to try to take it as a cue. Israel. I'm encouraged by Egypt's not joining, but I think it has more to do with Egypt doesn't feel it is yet ready for resuming a more tense confrontational state with Israel. But what is behind all this with Israel is I don't think this was primarily against Israel, but it can easily become that. And it certainly has a major anti-Israeli element to it. And by that I mean um look at what Turkeykey's doing. They're essentially trying to fill the void left as Iranian power declines. Now, this is what Turkey wants. It doesn't want Iran to fall, which is why every single step of the way they're trying to sabotage the United States and Israel from actually bringing down the Iranian regime. They

17:20 want a weak, limping, isolated, besieged Iran because then Iran is not a regional player and they fill the void left by the by the collapsing Shiite axis and they form their own. And you see them very aggressively trying to insert themselves in um in uh Gaza. They're trying to insert themselves even in Lebanon. you had this strange event where Aun leader of Lebanon was meeting with with Erdogan in uh in Turkey and he said, "Listen, do not make peace with Israel. Do not destroy that way. Uh don't go along with the Americans. We will be the ones who will protect you from Israel. We will replace UNIFIL in the south, which would bring Turkish troops right up to Israel's border in the north." We see the same sort of dynamic happening in Syria. Turkey is relentlessly trying to move south, south, south south with its forces, with its radars, with basing air bases,

18:24 troops. Ultimately, it wants their troops close to Israel's border. They have been working a long time to destabilize Jordan. As I said, they've destabilized the Horn of Africa. They're very close to Somalia. They want to undo Somali land. Uh and ultimately the big prize for them is Egypt. If they can turn Egypt, then they've effectively accomplished what what Iran couldn't. Iran had kamas, which unfortunately for them was also Sunni and Arab. They had PI, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Judea and Samaria. And they had Kisbala, which was a big threat. And then they had Assad controlling Syria.

19:06 But here you have that whole structure. Now slowly the Turks are trying to take it over through Muslim Brotherhood is trying to take it over but you have the potential for Egypt as well and you have the potential now for Saudi Arabia being shut down. So what you see here is a very dangerous evolution for uh Israel where they really are beginning to enter the new strategic threat. And yet the old one of Iran lingers and stays. And the worst thing is if you have to deal with the gaggle of cobras facing you here and on the other side you still have a wounded cobra facing your back.

19:46 And that that is the worst situation to be in. So the Israelis are more and more seeing as urgent to wrap up this thing with Iran in a successful victorious way that not only shuts down the Iranian threat but potentially could turn it into a strategic ally in the region to help weather all this. So that is that is how I see the Israelis looking at it. The big issue right now of course is Egypt. Will it or won't it fall to this this alliance? And I do think it should be understood as falling to this alliance because if Egypt goes along with it, it's in my view uh an indication of surrender by easy indication of surrender by Egypt that if you can't beat them, join them.

20:32 So um just taking this a step further um Greg Roman wrote an article last week um in which he stated commentators call the Mecca agreement an Islamic NATO, but it is not. It's a message dressed as a military alliance. And he argued that this presents Israel with a strong case for a rival security architecture running from India through the Gulf to the eastern Mediterranean out to Morocco with Israel as what he called the connective tissue. What are your thoughts on on that and how Israel can go about countering this in a way that builds regional alliances that benefit Right. So if you look at that strategic alliance that we've just described uh not the not the one with UAE, Israel, India, etc. the other one with Turkey as the the tip of the spear of a Sunni challenge to Western civilization. When you had Damascus fall, it was the first time in a thousand years that a Sunni Muslim Islamic ruler uh Sunni Arab Islamic ruler ruled in Damascus since the Umayads. Uh and this of course in Islamic lords after the Umayads, Islam

21:38 declined, Islam was corrupted. Islam lost its true faith leading to this,2001 100year decline. Uh uh and and as a result symbolically if um if if Damascus falls again to pure Islam, it is a sign of Allah's favor that you are finally back on the path of true Islam and you resume the global conquest of Islam of the world. So there is this energetic of Sunni Islamist confidence that comes from Damascus falling to these Islamists backed up by a neo-toman uh neocaliphate or neosultinate concept in Erdogan's uh Turkey. So what you see is Islamist Sunni forces informed by the Muslim Brotherhood with a backup. I realize they're different.

22:36 the Salafi. But there's a sort of an alignment here. This Salafi Muslim Brotherhood thrust, this volcanic eruption. And the first people who see it are the minorities, the Drews, the Christians, etc., the Alawites in in the Levant in in Lebanon, in Syria, uh, and and so forth. And lo and behold, already a year ago, we saw them freaking out and saying, "Protect us, protect us, protect us." Because they saw what was coming. The thousand-year accommodation with the Sunni overlord they realized was coming to an end. Their demi status was coming to an end. Their tolerated status as bad as it was and as oppressed as it was was coming to an end. There was they were facing extermination, existential threat. So they started banding together and you saw that in Sueo with the Drews turning to Israel and they realize Israel is all that can protect them. So that's part one of a new strategic alliance. I think Israel has to work aggressively now to create a minority strategy in the Levant to save Levantine

23:42 Christians, Drews, and Alawites. And ultimately once Iran collapses, I know this sounds shocking, Shiites too. um you'll see Israel emerge as the protector as well as more moderate Sunnis who don't like to be part of a Sunni caliphate with veiled and and and going to war against the western against Western civilization. You add that to the other key players who are against Islam, Islamic um radicalism in the region, the UAE against the Muslim Brotherhood. So that's part two of the alliance. Israel of course is a superpower in the region. So there are three parts of the alliance. The fourth part is India and you have this connection to India and you have corridors which is the IMAC corridor which is a trade corridor but really was meant to represent a strategic shift to realize the potential of the Abraham Accords is to put together the Abraham Accords into a strategic alliance that then builds a southern corridor that

24:44 attaches Asia to uh to Europe and isolates lo and behold Russia and China from the Middle East. It's a barrier to uh control of the Middle East and also slowly uh this since it was created before Turkey really emerged again as such a volcanic dangerous threat maybe to pressure Turkey to join in. Now with Turkey being such a threat to also present, you really have the old Silk Road which is a Turk road versus the old Golden Road which is an Indian trade route going through the south and the latoral. You really have these are the two visions of the Middle East going forward. One is anchored more to the west which is the southern one and the other one is ultimately anchored to Mongolia and China and and that's the Turk one that's emerging with China. So I think that's the the sort of grand strategic connections that we're talking about and I mentioned how how that cuts through North Africa as well and divides Africa from the rest and maybe turns it

25:46 over to China. But it also puts Egypt I mean Egypt in the spot on the spot but even more now and that's why we're seeing the tensions rise dramatically Greece the ANG is a major strategic play here. Greece is a major strategic play and if I were Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, I'd worry too and I'd begin to think about Balkan defense, not from civil war, which is how we've looked at it, but from a unified structure uh to counter and challenge the Turks and align with Greece and then via that with Israel, UAE and via that with India and that way and Japan. I think Japan is a critical element of this on the far side which also then isolates China from the Um really again great analysis uh Dave a lot of a lot to think about there. I want to make sure that I get to a couple of the audience questions and someone is asking about um if Turkey is seeking alignment with China what does that mean

26:48 regarding its membership in NATO? Well nothing because unfortunately NATO does not have a structure for expelling members. The only way for getting Turkey out of NATO is if they walk out of NATO. Uh what it could do is threaten the integrity of NATO. You can cauterize it. You can uh disinvite them from all the meetings. Uh create a firewall on intelligence and security all but gut their role in NATO. Uh but it it it unfortunately will not um remove them from NATO. And unfortunately here I think this is where the Europeans see things very differently which is they believe that Turkey is a vital asset right now when they are not able to provide their own defense especially with America sort of withdrawing some of its uh eagerness to be part of NATO so to speak. They look at at Turkey as both an arsenal providing weaponry as well as the southeast flank of NATO that pins Russia down. So for they're looking at

27:53 it through the very narrow prism of Putin and Russia and Ukraine and they believe from that that regardless of what Turkey does with China, with Israel, with everybody, it doesn't matter for their narrow purposes, Turkey is not an enemy. So, uh, what we're really seeing here is NATO is beginning to acquire a strategic dimension that is both schizophrenic and quite frankly on some levels not really a western only anchored organization. Now, that of course is the United States is not going to tolerate because China is China and uh we don't see we don't see Russia as quite the threat that they see it. uh we don't see Ukraine quite the ally. I think we maybe should, but but we don't and we do see our interests in the region of the Middle East very central and we we have so many different interests in Europe on this. Well, I would argue Europe should look at itself

28:55 as part of an overall structure and should just join in rather than constantly try to go its own way this way. Uh so I think Europe is acting a little like Saudi Arabia. They're taking short-term uh strategic uh objectives and trading it in for a long-term strategic catastrophe. But nonetheless, that's that's what I think uh they're doing. So NATO, I think, is becoming uh paralyzed uh uh and uh unfortunately I don't think you can get rid of Turkey from it. Um thank you for that. We are um almost out of time, but I I somebody asked and I would love to have you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the US and the role that it could possibly play in this strategic movement that we're seeing. Um somebody asked that question and I I think it's a good a good way for us to perhaps end.

29:45 Sure. United States is tired of being the global policeman. It wants burden sharing and I get that and I think it's a wise policy. But therefore, we're going to need strong allies to pick up the slack in a region. If we're not a superpower, then every American should realize our way of life is over. We have depended since the beginning of our republic on being a dominant sea power, on being essentially a derivative of global trade and global movement of freedom. And as a result, if we surrender our superpower status and just retreat into isolationism, it will come back to haunt us. It you can't run away from the world. It'll come to you. And when it comes to us, we'll be poorer hard. It'll be harder to deal with.

30:31 It'll be an uglier situation. Our way of life depends on being a superpower. But to be a superpower and withdraw, we're going to need to find allies who will pick up the slack. And you can find powerful countries and you can find aligned countries but it's very difficult to find powerful aligned countries. And we have a great fortune in the Middle East of having Israel. Israel just showed itself to be the preeminent power in the region. That is our strategic anchor there. We are fortunate in Asia to have Japan and and some other countries. But we do need to encourage them to take up more slack and uh spend more on defense. But part of that was us. We essentially always told the Japanese, uh, you know, lay low, we'll take care of it for you. Now, of course, we don't want them to go nuclear and stuff like that, but we can ask Japan to pick up more of the slack. And in Europe, I think we have a bigger problem. Uh, we should rely more on some of the Eastern European countries, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland. Uh, we should definitely

31:35 encourage the Germans to continue to arm. Uh but ultimately I think we have to figure out a new relationship with with with um Ukraine. But we really have to now turn our attention to the Balkans as well and try to see what we can do to craft some sort of an alliance. And then ultimately the big battle is the since the strategic civilizational gravity of Europe, those who still believe in Europe as a civilization is shifting eastward and therefore the defense structure of Europe should shift eastward to these eastern countries. uh and the west is really falling down namely France, Britain, Spain and Italy.

32:12 Uh we then after we anchor it that way, we have to really turn back and fight the civilizational fight in Western Europe to ensure that the cradle of our civilization doesn't fall. As well as the way with the minority strategy in the Levant, we have to make sure the cradle of Christian civilization doesn't fall to Islam and become erased entirely. the the devastating impact of losing your cradle uh is is is horrifying. And if we lose Western Europe, we lose our cradle, too. So, it is not something we can walk away from just because we don't like them.

32:49 So, I wish we could keep you for another half an hour, David, but we'll have you back at some point in the future. And and this was fascinating. Again, a lot to think about. And thank you to the audience for listening. Thank you for joining us. I hope you all can join us on Wednesday at 3 p.m. for Israel Insider with Ashley Perry. And um again, we'll look forward to having you back at some point soon. Thank you, David. Thank you. Wish everyone a wonderful afternoon.