Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

0:02 will come in for the UN General Assembly where he likes to make a big show and I'm sure especially in an election year and before elections he will give a very good show and now the whole you know arrest threat by New York mayor Mandani is now put to rest I think there's very little doubt Netting will be there he will give a good show and probably try and secure another meeting with President Trump but Even this meeting it was, you know, there was an opportunity because of the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graeme. Um, and I think it was felt that, you know, you couldn't have Prime Minister Netanyahu or President Zalinsky in at the same time without some sort of meeting. So, as much as Netting would have liked some footage to be played endlessly throughout campaign videos between now and October 27th, there's probably also an understanding from both parties that the optics of Netanyahu once again coming into DC perhaps potentially before a major

1:06 escalation didn't look good. um in February as as as we all now know, Netanyo came into DC, presented all sorts of options uh for a strike and we know um relatively short time a few weeks later there was Operation Epic Fury. the two countries um dealt heavy blows to Iran and obviously the anti-Israel critics came out and still come out and still claim that basically NetO led Trump uh in a merry dance into something that he couldn't get himself out promised things that couldn't happen. You know, we we've talked a little bit about that in the past. I'm not going to regurgitate it now because there's a whole uh there's a whole story behind that. But you know that is the narrative that Netino was the one leading and Neti uh and Trump was just following him. You know we all know that that's not true. That narrative is simply incorrect and not factual. We know Donald Trump is the one leading and Netanyahu is following. But you know

2:10 they didn't want to give um others that opportunity to uh make that uh claim. What seemingly came out of the meeting is rather than Netany coming in and saying this is what he recommends. He wanted to go through three major options um of possible action as we'll see maybe inaction and um take through them the advantages and disadvantages. The first one is continue along with an agreement. Um what does that look like? Is it the MOU? is their hope to get the nuclear uh weapons program completely, you know, redundant. Um, you know, that they played that out. The second one was a continuation of economic sanctions, how that will look, not a return to war, but certainly ratchet up or something similar uh to what's going on now, economic um sanctions, blockade, etc., etc. The third one is a return to full-scale military operations. And what

3:15 we understand is that Netanyahu didn't necessarily uh present any of them as his preferred option. Uh the understanding in Israel and maybe parts of the US administration as well is that uh you know regardless of whether they go for an agreement or not, the Iranians will simply never ever agree. They won't agree to you know on the on the nuclear side. They won't they certainly won't agree it seems on the street of Hormuz. So, you know, the Israelis didn't want to come in and be seen as the ones uh to ruin any potential agreement because it's felt that the Iranians will do that very well themselves. So, it that's pretty much uh what seemed to have come out.

3:59 The meeting seemed to be cordial, seemed to be a good atmosphere. Uh the um White House press secretary put out a oneline good meeting but put NetanyO alongside the meeting with Zalinski uh which perhaps again shows how the optics wanted to be seen here. You know there are those who will say that it was a snub to Netanyao. I think it was less of a of a snob and more of trying to get the optics right. You know whatever President Trump decides is what President Trump will decide. It's not because Netanyahu came in and happened [clears throat] to say to him this is what you have to do. So I think it was more that obviously there are all those who try and claim that there's you know level of mistrust, daylights etc etc.

4:45 Netanyao went on various um American media afterwards to try and you know make that point. He said it was one of the best meetings ever. Really detailed. Um there's no daylight and you know in the way that confidently describes his relationship uh to uh pre uh with President Trump. Um you know there's also that there's a bit of a game that happens frequently in Israel where a senior political source uh basically leaks stuff. Um, this time it was a senior uh political source who happened to be uh with the Netanyahu team in Washington. Everybody knows it's no great secret. It's a game that's played. Everyone knows it's straight from Netino. He briefed reporters. Uh it's rare that he'll brief like this reporters when he's in Washington, but apparently he did so. And again, he said that, you know, that the meetings were good. Didn't present a preference. uh explained that u negotiations will

5:49 almost certainly fail. But what he did do is present possible plan B's. He also talked about other things. There's uh it was leaked as it were that Mushaba Kami is very much alive. He's very isolated but he's very much alive and some other interesting things as well as meeting with President Trump. Net also met with Secretary of War Ex um who has a good relationship but interestingly he also had a meeting and apparently this was uh a request straight from Netanyahu's office to meet with Vice President JD Vance. Uh any of you who will have seen his recent interviews will know that JD Vance is trying to tread that line between the supporters of Israel and the opponents of Israel. He he likes to try and describe himself and I think he has even described himself as someone in the middle. Um he got very angry the other day in a podcast um where basically he claimed that the Israeli government was

6:51 running an influence operation against him based on a time article that was presented to him read to him or whatever time article didn't mention JD Valance once you can read it yourselves. I don't know why he decided that on the back the time article did say that there was an influence operation but it was just to try and get more favorable uh um influence amongst evangelicals and conservatives republicans towards Israel which is legitimate. Everything was above board. The people in America submitted their application to Farah as they should. Everything was above board and like many countries do, they wanted a more favorable view towards them and this was written up in a lengthy time magazine and JD Vance took that article and took it a couple of steps far beyond claiming that this influence official Israeli government influence operation was targeting him was targeting theou etc etc. So apparently there was a chance for Netanyahu very much to clear

7:54 the air there. Uh the release after that meeting is it was a direct and honest meeting. Apparently again it was what in Israel's called uh four eyes in other words face to face. Um but it's clear that Netanyahu understands that JD Vance is a powerful figure within the administration and he needed to get um he needed to get his side straight to the horse's mouth as it were and uh that meeting uh probably was a very interesting one. Um, beyond that meeting, obviously in the region, things are heating up. Even though the a little bit [clears throat] less than a week ago decided to stop their nightly operations against Iran. There's obviously a big debate why that happened because, you know, the official reason was to give negotiations a chance. There were unofficial reasons because America was running out of defensive weapons in the region.

8:50 Either way, the Iranians um uh tonight decided or was it last night decided they were going to attack a US base in Jordan, as they had done, US bases throughout their region during these nightly attacks. And out of nowhere, it seemed that the Iranians decided that the fact that the US wasn't targeting them directly wasn't enough and they decided to attack the US. There were various reasons given. uh we can go through some of them uh that you know the analysis behind it. First of all, a very popular one is simply and this this certainly comes out tan itself is that the US is seen as weak. It's seen it doesn't have a stomach to fight. So the Iranians are in the ascendancy. So they're going to push their advantage even when the US retreats slightly. This is the official messaging that's coming out of uh Thrron. The second reason which is more sort of a deeper analysis is again once we we go back to this

9:53 whole the extremist versus moderates groups within the um Iranian Islamic regime. We know the revolutionary guards are considered the most extreme. Um and you have foreign minister Arachi and people like that who are seen as more moderate. Again everything is relative. You know, in Israel, they usually say there's extremists and more extremists, not moderates and extremists. And while the moderates have said, you know, now is a good time to let's go back to um I just saw Jose Montero has written in the chat, uh please put your questions in the Q&A and remind anyone else if they want a question, please put it in the Q&A now. Um so there is that analysis that while the moderates led by the foreign minister wanted to get back to negotiations again not necessarily because they want to reach an agreement but at least that would be a way of tampering down some of the um the aggression and the extremists want to blow it up. they simply want don't want

10:56 this to happen and they want to aggravate the situation and make sure that there are no more compromises that this is a battle and uh they want their part in it. Um and the third reason is while US operations have ceased um the blockade continues. So they want to be seen as doing something for to their people to their base um which they need more than ever as the majority of the country whether it's 70% 80% 90% who are against the regime um you know they're getting more and more angry electricity blackouts long lines fuel lines uh petrol gas you know the situation inflation at ridiculous levels the currency is spiraling out of control but the Iranian regime does have a hardcore base of anything from 10 to 20%. So they need to hold that and show that they are doing something that they are fighting that they have the bit between uh their teeth. So, it's unclear exactly why they decided to anger uh the

12:00 US and and we saw the President Trump told uh Fox News, I don't know how to say this without swearing, but apparently his exact quote, "We're going to f the [ __ ] out of them uh as a result of the attack in Jordan." And we'll have to wait and see exactly what that uh looks like. Um already we've seen an uptick in violence throughout the region. Houthis, Saudis, Iraqi militias are now coming back to the four. We've seen we'll talk about them in a minute.

12:34 We've seen have largely been put on the sidelines. Hamas are obviously uh on the sidelines. So the and the Houthis are are doing what they can, but the Iraqi militias, the Shiite militias are certainly making as much noise as possible. They were an attack in Egypt and a fuel depot was attributed to Iraqi militias and the US and Saudi Arabia con conducted operations across Iraq against Shia Shiite militias and apparently killed quite a few revolutionary guards and other extremists. Um so it'll be interesting to see what the US does. Um they already understood that there's a problem in Iraq as well. We've already we've now also seen the Houthis are going to try and take a leaf out of Iran's book and try and charge a toll uh for ships entering and exiting the Red Sea which would be a major escalation because you know we know that the straight of Homos

13:36 is extremely important for natural resources for gas. 20% of the world's gas goes through that. Well, red uh the Red Sea also is a very very important um and strategic thorough thorough way. So if the Houthis do um fulfill their promise and close out or toll that out or whatever, that's going to be a major major um escalation. um talking escalations. We've also seen in the northbah for the first time since the ceasefire broke it launched a an explosive laden um drone towards Israeli troops. We'll have to wait and see exactly how Israel reacts to that.

14:16 Perhaps that could also be part of Iran's strategy. There is this theory that Iran wants to go Israel into it so they can once again be blamed within the US for leading the US back into battle. Um Netanyahu did say that we are not going to react unless we are directly uh attacked by Iran and then you know it's it's it's our hands uh uh to uh react. um a little bit uh closer to home. Um we had um very interesting while Netanyahu was in in the states, he was very much looking back uh at Israel because there were important votes within the LI could central committee about um uh offers or or or initiatives by the prime minister who wants to have eight uh reserve slots in very um you know secured positions within the liquid. there's been a lot of backlash uh against it but it did go through by a very very small margin. Uh there was also another uh initiative in

15:22 the liquor. There's various regional races and things like that. Once you've once you've run in one of these regional or demographic races, uh the next time you have to always run in the the general race, you can't then go back. If you ran on an immigrant spot one time, you can't go back and run it again. If you ran on the spot reserved for someone from the negative, you can't do that again. Well, they did away with that. And that's uh also something that NetO he cared a little bit less about that and it passed by a couple of votes but it certainly will have a major bearing on the makeup of the liquid going into these uh elections. Uh we also had some interesting snippets of information from Netanyahu's pollster Rafi Smith who said he does not see how there is a pathway for this coalition to return to office. He said the numbers are simply not there. they will need a massive turnaround um for for for that to happen. So, we'll have to wait and see exactly what's happening there. We see a slew of um coalition leaders who

16:26 have made some interesting comments over the last few days. We've seen the leader of United Judaism, Golkov, who basically described the attacks on yeshiva students who do not enlist um the arrest uh and he compared it to a terrorist attack. You can imagine how all that went down. Batalos Mr. leader of the religious scientist party was asked whether he thought about resigning after October 7th and he said he thought about it and then he he looked through all his actions decided he did nothing wrong so he decided not to. And you had um who basically said forget about kamas, forget about Iran etc. The biggest threat to the state of Israel is Yay Golan of the Democrats party. So we're starting to get a little bit of a taste of what the coalition members are going to run on. You know, after four and a half years, after October 7th and and everything associated with it, it doesn't seem, and this this goes, I

17:29 would argue specifically for Premier Cetino, it's hard to see where they can make inroads. um you know successes there are major tactical successes if you look back in it but at the moment Israelis are not necessarily feeling that they're not seeing the strategic successes they see Hamas is still standing they see still standing they see Iran is as bell coast as ever so probably well we're already starting to see uh the campaign of liquid and other coalition members is going to revolve around attacking the other side we already saw a video of Eisenot obviously the major challenger for the opposition who's basically in a bear hug with Mads Abbas of the armed party. Um, and it just does seem that at the moment the where there's a bit of a struggle to to set the agenda, which Netanyahu usually does in the leadup to elections, it just seems more about delegitimizing opponents rather than saying what they're going to do and trying to crow, you know, their achievements. That could

18:32 change. We've got another three months for the elections, but as of now, that seems to be very much the strategy. And with that, I'm going to go to the Q&A and uh go to the questions. If you have any more questions, there is still time. Sham well confirmed, right? Daniel Pipes writes that the hope for Iran is that the 90 million Iranians will rise up to overthrow overthrow the revolutionary guards. Anybody will chant that? Well, I mean, that's the hope of everybody. And that's really the hope of the Americans, the Israelis pretty much I would say 90 95% of the world. Certainly the region that would be the best case scenario. Um there was a senior uh security uh official not Netanyahu or perhaps Netanyahu usually they describe him as senior political figure who basically said there's very little chance at the moment of that happening. Things could escalate. there are all these predictions by the end of the year the situation will be so bad that the population will be forced to rise up and

19:37 but the situation has to get a lot worse. We are seeing some minor uprisings here and there. Uh we we we we saw uh this week the hanging of two people involved in the demonstrations earlier in the year or towards the end of last year and that certainly was not uh that was not seen particularly positively to put it mildly. So there has been some uh demonstration, some uprising, but at the moment it does seem that the regime is mostly in control. But again uh that could change, but it the Israeli assessment is that um that that's not in the immediate future as of this moment. Um Eric Sulkov asked, "Why does President Trump consistently believe that Iran wants to make peace while Iran continues to attack US troops in the area and boats in the straits?" Um, I'm not sure what President Trump believes. I don't think President Trump believes that Iran wants to make peace.

20:31 Every now and again, yes, we do hear they want to make a deal. They're desperate to get a make a deal. And first of all, I'm sure he's hearing that. As I said, there seem to be a lot of different voices within the Iranian uh regime. I would assume by now with everything that's happened, he doesn't believe them anymore. perhaps he's just waiting out till after the midterms because obviously the price of oil is going up and that increases the cost of living in the US and that certainly hurts the incumbency uh in any election. So there is that theory that he's just waiting for the uh elections to be over and then he will have a free hand um to do what he wants to do. Again, it's impossible to know what President Trump believes. Um, but I can't, you know, judging by the language he used, as they said in that Fox with that Fox reporter, he seems very angry whether he'll, you know, hold back and decide, okay, I'm going to hold off a little bit more, try and get the negotiations back on track, hold off maybe till after the midterms,

21:34 try and get the price of oil back down. I mean he has stated in the past that he knows that military operations uh mean that the price of oil goes up. He he made that connection himself. So I I would be surprised if he believes that the Iranians really want to make peace those who want to. Um but um as I said there could be many many other uh things going on. Perhaps it's already been decided. Perhaps not. Perhaps it's dayto-day. Perhaps he will start resuming major military operations in the next few hours. It's impossible to know. We, you know, it's it's a bit of a seessaw the last few weeks, the last few months. So, but I I I'd be, you know, low to believe that he he thinks that Iran can make a really, you know, a deal uh along the lines of what he would uh seek. Georgio Pelios um asked, "We know what was discussed in the meeting." I'm assuming you're talking about the the

22:36 Trump Netanyahu meeting. As I said, you know, there were a few issues that were raised. Uh Syrial was raised at the beginning because there, you know, Netanyahu had heard President Trump talk about, you know, Israel has to get out of Syria. So, he tried to present the reality on the ground that Israel only uh covers his troops only cover.1% of all territory of Syria. It's not a major undertaking. and he presented uh maps to show that Turkey holds 5%. So if anyone needs to get out of uh [clears throat] Syria, it's it's Turkey which apparently also was brought up. Uh Netany wanted to express his concerns about President Erdogan and his rhetoric and uh and obviously the F-35 uh deal.

23:23 Um what we understand is again Trump basically laughed it off and said, "Well, we have a difference of opinion there." and they moved on to the main meat of the meeting which was uh Iran as I laid out the the three various options, the pros and the cons. Um perhaps a plan of action when plan A doesn't work. Um but uh we'll probably never know the exact details of everything, but this is what we Uh Schmo Shafer asked the Saudis join the operation Iraq. Why are they not join the operation directly against Iran? simply because Iran has a much stronger weaponry um and the Saudis don't want direct hits on their own um natural resources, refineries, etc. They have been targeted in the past. They don't want that. At the end of the day, what the region wants is stability. It wants uh business as usual to go back to business as usual. Um there is a lot going on between the Saudis and the Houthis. Uh,

24:27 and now we see between the Saudis and Iraqi militias, they probably felt that um, you know, like everything that's going on in the region, there's proxy fights and there's direct fights. You can go after proxies, but don't go after the main uh, dish as it were. And um, you know, if Saudis decide to attack Iran, the Iranians would uh, unleash quite a barrage in response. So I think that's probably why uh, that happened. Umi Ismael asked, "Do you think that Israel's behind the war against Iran or is it American decision?" I made it clear and I think all evidence shows 100% this is America. Netanya would have loved in the last few months to go back.

25:16 There's a bank of targets as long as you arm uh drawn up by the Israeli security service, the IDF, etc. that they would love to go. President Trump calls the shots even now. Uh no one will do any if Israel is attacked directly. That's a different story. But certainly this is American decision. America is deciding when and when and it is restraining Israel, not the other way around. uh despite some of the narratives that put out there, this is 100% a decision by President Trump and his administration and Prime Minister Net has to wait for a green light uh before it gets involved u another follow-up question from KI is Could we see a military confrontation between Israel and Turkey in the near future? It's a good question. I don't think so at the moment. I don't think as long as President Trump is in office, Turkey would be um would do that. Um I'm

26:20 not saying that it will never happen. And again, it could be um you know, through indirect means. You know, Turkey does hold uh house some of the Hamas leadership. Uh the rhetoric is is growing. Certainly, they're on different sides of things uh in Syria and elsewhere. Um so I don't think a direct military confrontation is in the offing or in the immediate uh or even uh you know short mediumterm future. Beyond that who knows uh President Erdogan is getting old. Uh we'll have to wait and see what what happens afterwards. But certainly the rhetoric we even saw tonight again after things have calmed down a little bit. President Erdogan accusing Israel of all sorts of uh terrible things going far beyond critic uh you know being criticism of Israeli policies. Um and of course in the same speech justifying the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus which is kind of ironic but um that is the world view today it seems of the uh Turkish uh

27:24 leadership. Uh and with that I would like to thank you very much for your questions and your participation and I look forward to seeing you next week. Thank you and good night from Israel.