“The Iran War: Strategy, Strikes, and the Risk of Escalation” with Andrew Fox

Description

In this week’s Middle East Forum podcast, Lauri Regan is joined by Andrew Fox, a frontline conflict researcher and senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a former British Army officer who served sixteen years and deployed on three tours of Afghanistan.

Fox breaks down the opening phase of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, including the intelligence-driven strikes that rapidly targeted Iran’s senior command echelon. He explains what Israel and the United States appear to be prioritizing next, from missile-launcher “shoot-and-scoot” tactics to the systematic pressure on Iran’s security apparatus, and why regime change by airpower remains difficult without a credible ground component.

The conversation also explores how the war could reshape regional dynamics, including the status of Iranian proxies, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, the pause and uncertainty surrounding Gaza and the Trump peace plan, and the strategic vacuum that could expand Turkish influence in Lebanon and Syria. Fox closes by outlining the key constraints that could determine how long the conflict lasts, including ammunition stocks, political time pressure, and global market volatility.

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